by
Leslie Nader, Ph.D.
Vice President for Education
Massachusetts Society for Medical Research, Inc. (MSMR)
Accompanying sidebars to this article:
This article originally appeared in the Winter 1999 MSMR News and is reprinted
verbatim. Permission to reprint has been granted to USDA from the author
and MSMR.
Copyright 1999 by MSMR.
The mission of the MSMR, Inc. is to promote and enhance biomedical research
and biological research including the proper care and use of animals, for
the improved health and well-being of people, animals, and the environment.
The Year 2000 is less than a year away. Millennium parties have been in the planning stages for years, and the revelry on New Year’s Eve is expected to be unprecedented. However, amidst the plans for merriment are activities of a different nature related to New Year’s Eve 1999—activities precipitated by the so-called Millennium Computer Bug, or “Year 2000 problem.”
The healthcare industry has been slow to address the Year 2000 problem (Y2K), and little or no consideration has been given publicly to how Y2K might impact animal research facilities. In an effort to catalyze discussion and action on this critical topic, this article will offer a brief overview of Y2K, raise some questions about how the Y2K situation could affect animal research facilities in particular, and offer some suggestions for mitigating undesirable outcomes through contingency planning.
I believe that severe [Y2K-related] disruptions will occur and that they will last perhaps about a month. Additional problems, ranging from annoyances to more serious issues, will continue cropping up throughout 2000. This prediction might be optimistic; it assumes that people will have done what is necessary to minimize the number of single points of failure that could occur. Accomplishing that alone in the time remaining will require a Herculean effort unprecedented in the history of computers. Peter de Jager, “Y2K: So Many Bugs, So Little Time,” Scientific American, January 1999. |
To: Contents | Introduction | A Y2K Backgrounder | Y2K & Animal Facility Hot Spots | Y2K & the Institutional Disaster Plan | Legal and Insurance Issues | Goverment Readiness | Summary
Many computer systems have programs that were designed as far back as the 1950s, when computer memory was so expensive that saving disk storage space was essential. As one solution to this problem, when using dates, system programmers truncated the four-digit year date to a two-digit date (e.g., 1997 became 97). The result was that computers could not tell if the ‘97’ belonged to the 1800s or 1900s or 2000s. So, in other words, January 1, 2000, may be interpreted as January 1, 1900.
Because of this, we are now faced with a problem of global proportions, i.e., finding all the places dates are necessary in all the programs we use and then determining if these programs need to change the way they handle dates. Estimates are that as much as 90% of all legacy software will be affected.
When the clock changes to January 1, 2000, the outcome may be failed systems, malfunctioning systems, or inaccurate or lost data. Perhaps the worst part of the Y2K problem is that no one can predict for sure what exactly will happen, and errors may occur that we hadn’t anticipated or won’t necessarily recognize immediately.
Y2K is actually a generic term describing a problem with the way computer programs handle dates. In fact, January 1, 2000, is not the only date of concern. For example, some computers are designed to project forward a year and count backward to determine the date. These computers will see January 1, 1999, as ‘00.’ Another example is the world’s 24 global positioning satellites, which record time by counting the weeks that have passed since their launch in 1980. At midnight on August 21, 1999, their time counters will be full, and equipment that uses GPS signals may malfunction. In addition, the year 2000 is a leap year, while the year 1900 was not. Even if computers handle the millennium changeover smoothly, many will not accurately determine dates past February 28, 2000, or they will make calculations based on that misinformation.
Embedded technology is the reason Y2K is not merely a computer problem. In the last 20 years, embedded computer chips have become essential to our lifestyle. Whether we realize it or not, embedded technology is at work when we send a facsimile; ride an elevator; mail a letter; call 911 with an emergency; use an ATM card; or pump gas.
Many embedded devices are date-dependent, and many are mission-critical. Embedded systems also support electrical power stations; telecommunications systems; wastewater treatment plants; and pipeline distribution system. Anything that takes any type of measurement or tracks time is suspect, including biomedical equipment and medical devices, building systems, and communications systems.
To: Contents | Introduction | A Y2K Backgrounder | Y2K & Animal Facility Hot Spots | Y2K & the Institutional Disaster Plan | Legal and Insurance Issues | Goverment Readiness | Summary
Many so-called experts have predicted that the electric systems of North America will suffer major power outages as a result of the Y2K bug. The North American Electrical Reliability Council (NERC) was formed in 1968 in the aftermath of the November 9, 1965 blackout that affected the Northeastern U.S. and Ontario. NERC’s mission is to promote the reliability of the electricity supply for North America.
The January 1999 NERC report to the U.S. Department of Energy — Preparing the Electric Power Systems of North America for Transition to the Year 2000 — is optimistic that transition through critical Y2K rollover dates will have minimal impact on the electricity supply in North America. More than 44% of mission-critical components have been tested, and the types of errors that have been found thus far “do not appear to affect the ability to keep generators and power delivery facilities in service and electricity supplied to customers.” The U.S. receives about 25% of its electricity supply from nuclear-powered plants, and the NERC report states that “nuclear-generating facilities are expected to be available to supply their share of energy needs through the millennium turnover.”
The NERC report does caution, however, that telecommunications from external service providers is a key issue for the electric industry due to the uncertainties regarding what capabilities might be lost and the real-time impact of those losses. The Y2K readiness of the nation’s railroad system will also play a role in the availability of electricity if problems with rail delivery of coal result in reduced on-site stockpiles at coal-fired plants.
The entire country’s electrical power grid is not the most relevant issue, however. It is the links to the local power grid that will affect us. This means that the Y2K issue should be examined closely on a smaller, more community-based level. Research institutions are advised to check the Y2K compliance status of local electricity providers. Even if local power companies are compliant, however, they will not be able to sustain power for long if regional grids are crippled, and there are limits to the transfer capabilities of the North American electrical power grid. If regional grids fail, their only backup is something like the ancient analog systems that are fraught with problems, and surges in power will likely occur.
Backup systems should be in place, and this brings up the question of generators. Backup generators for powering HVAC units and lighting are gasoline- or diesel-powered. Critical services and equipment — for example, lighting, exhaust fans, air handling equipment, and key elevators — should be on a generator, assuming there is availability of fuel. There is certainly a limit to the capacity of emergency generators, and stockpiling fuel brings serious safety issues. Manual backup plans should also be in place, making use of alternative heat and light sources. Stockpiling linens and blankets is a good idea. Backup sources of heat may be necessary, and might include kerosene and gas heaters. Battery-operated lanterns are an inexpensive alternative source of lighting.
The availability of water comes down to flow controllers and regulators. Many are predicting interruptions to the water supply beginning January 1, 2000, and there are concerns that when the flow of water is restored, there are no guarantees it will be “good.” Microorganisms could multiply significantly when the water is stationary, and heavy metals and metal ions could leach into the water. Institutions should check with their local water companies, but it is a good idea to stockpile potable water and consider water purification and water quality monitoring backup plans in the event of a worst-case scenario.
As a precautionary measure in the event of downed phone lines, alternative sources of communication, such as cell phones and two-way radios, may come in handy.
Regarding vendors, one should note in terms of the Year 2000 problem that Y2K-“ready” is not the same at Y2K-“compliant.” “Ready” is a nebulous term with no legal meaning in relation to Y2K. “Compliant” is the word that should be sought from vendors in describing their efforts to continue smooth operation through the millennium turnover.
Information sharing among vendors, manufacturers, service providers, and customers about Y2K problems and solutions is critical. Yet many vendors have been reluctant to share necessary information because it is documentation that could support future liability lawsuits. In order to encourage the necessary information sharing, the Clinton Administration proposed and Congress passed last fall the “Year 2000 Information Disclosure Act,” which limits liability for vendor cooperation on Y2K disclosure.
In any case, manufacturers hold ultimate responsibility for the Y2K-compliance of their products. The best one can do right now is to obtain Compliance Statements whenever possible. See below for an abridged listing of online databases containing product compliance information.
You will want to review vendor and service contracts and select alternate vendors in the event of problems. If you rely on vendors’ electronic systems for information, you will need to be assured that they are Y2K-compliant. Despite all the best assurances, however, it may be prudent to ensure that supplies are in stock to cover a minimum of two to four weeks of operation.
In a worst-case scenario, if infrastructure fails as the millennium turns over, the likelihood of criminal activity will increase. Public awareness of and media attention to Y2K are increasing, and there are indications that animal activists and others are becoming aware of the implications of Y2K for research facility security. FBI director Louis Freeh recently warned that right-wing extremists, religious cults, and “other groups” could turn to violence as the year 2000 approaches, given the vulnerability of institutional infrastructure. The FBI is currently implementing a nationwide assessment of the threat of domestic terrorism on or around January 1, 2000.
Any or all of the major physical plant systems have been predicted to fail due to Y2K-related problems, including elevators, HVAC, door locks, cold rooms, fume hoods, fire alarms, and security systems. Because automated door locks are particularly susceptible, your institution’s security department may want to distribute keys to appropriate personnel and/or develop plans for manual entrance. Video surveillance equipment is almost certain to be affected, and security personnel should be trained to implement manual recordkeeping. Security personnel should also be notified of potential false alarms in alarm systems.
Hospitals and other research facilities have additional cause for security and police protection because they are potential sources of drugs. Drug abuse and trafficking are known to increase during the holidays, and the risk of drug-related break-ins during the millennium transition is further heightened.
As a final cautionary note, law enforcement organizations rely on special equipment that is susceptible to Y2K problems (scanners, radar guns, radios, jail security systems, etc.). Law enforcement agencies are still in the process of inventorying and testing these critical items and remediating where problems are found. Cautious institutions may want to consider the services of auxiliary security personnel during the few weeks surrounding the millennium change.
Veterinary and medical supplies, and blood and blood product supplies are critical for maintaining patient care. Based on recent experiences with Hurricane Georges, some have voiced concerns about the viability of the pharmaceutical supply line. Stockpiling of pharmaceuticals may be necessary for research facilities, although downed refrigeration systems could impact many pharmaceuticals and storage space is likely to be an issue. The “just-in-time” method has been recommended for critical supplies like blood and plasma, where a facility takes delivery as late as possible on December 31, 1999.
Y2K compliance of medical devices has come under serious scrutiny, with a cautionary report issued recently by the General Accounting Office (Compliance Status of Many Biomedical Equipment Items Still Unknown, GAO/AIMD-98-240). Biomedical equipment such as MRIs, x-ray equipment, cardiac defibrillators and pacemakers rely on computers or embedded chips for calibration and/or day-to-day operation. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has reported that two medical devices — an external defibrillator and a multiparameter patient monitor — will fail to display, print or store the correct time of the products’ operation, creating incorrect records although not directly endangering patient health. Since many medical devices are used in both people and animals, veterinary issues are raised by these risks. Compliance information on medical devices and biomedical equipment must be provided by the manufacturer. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and others are making this information readily available through databases accessible via the Internet (see sidebar).
Y2K poses other potential risks to veterinary professionals during the millennium turnover. HVAC failure poses a particular and life-threatening problem for immunocompromised animals. And downed refrigeration systems will impact many pharmaceuticals. Adequate post-operative care during this period may be impossible, and Institutional Animal Care and Use Committees may want to consider scheduling a moratorium on surgical procedures for a period of time before and after December 31, 1999.
One study has predicted pre-1997 personal computers (PCs) to have a 93% Y2K failure rate. PCs made in 1997 and later are predicted to have a 47% failure rate. For Macintosh users, minor glitches have been reported for only a few software packages. Other than that, Macintosh operators are not expected to experience Y2K problems because the Mac operating system handles the date format differently than PCs.
If possible, “fixing” or upgrading office PCs is highly recommended. There are a number of shareware programs available online for do-it-yourself Y2K fixes, and similar Y2K-test and Y2K-fix software is also commercially available. Having laptops available with extra batteries may assist you with maintaining administrative paperwork in the event of desktop PC malfunctions. In any case, maintaining up-to-date paper and electronic backups of all critical computer records is highly recommended.
As for software, many programs are known to have current errors. Karl Fielder of Greenwich Mean Time, a company that markets Y2K-fix software, checked 4,000 PC programs and found that 28% with Y2K date failures were claimed by manufacturers to be Y2K-compliant, and 4% would only run until 12/31/99. This doesn’t say much for manufacturer’s assurances, and your best bet is to upgrade essential software.
Checking with manufacturers on other essential office equipment is also a good idea. Photocopiers and FAX machines in particular are suspect for Y2K problems. Having a manual typewriter and carbon paper on hand may be helpful.
Any laboratory equipment that takes measurements or tracks time is a Y2K risk. This includes centrifuges, tissue and gas analyzers, autoclaves, and more. Manufacturers should supply compliance statements and support for each instrument or equipment component. Much of this information is also available on the Internet (see sidebar). However, the standard for Y2K is to inventory all equipment and components, and test it regardless of supporting manufacturer documentation. Many of the Y2K form letters that are being issued only address the rollover to 1/1/2000. They generally do not address the leap year date, which is another issue altogether. The best approach is to obtain vendor compliance statements, file them, and then test equipment anyway.
Staff awareness of the Year 2000 problem will allow for better contingency planning on Y2K-related issues, and will better ensure smooth operation during the millennium transition. Many institutions are devising creative ways to relay this information to employees. Some have placed Y2K flyers in envelopes with employee paychecks. Another idea is to provide employees with a personal Y2K checklist to help them identify where in their personal lives they should look and prepare for problems. One such checklist can be obtained by contacting the MSMR office, or can be downloaded from http://members.theglobe.com/y2000. The American Red Cross has recently made Y2K disaster readiness documents available online as well at http://www.redcross.org/disaster/safety/y2k.html
Taking the lead in helping employees prepare on a personal level for Y2K glitches is also a proactive measure in ensuring their cooperation in the event of problems with payroll and benefits.
It may also ensure more cooperation and higher morale in the event of increased staffing needs during the millennium transition. Your facility may consider advising staff early on that overtime and on-call services may be scheduled and expected during a period of time beginning December 31, 1999. One innovative Massachusetts facility is even considering hosting a millennium New Year’s Eve party on-site to ensure availability of staff.
All staff must be involved in preparing for Y2K, as with any impending crisis. That means management must take the lead to get procedures and training in place. Training of course is critical. You may consider accelerating staff learning curves by adding more tasks and intensive training now, and drilling periodically on critical scenarios so procedures are rote when they are actually needed.
Transportation may also be an issue. Some have predicted that many automobiles and other vehicles will experience Y2K-related problems. As part of employee awareness efforts, the issue of alternative transportation should be raised. Employees should be responsible for assessing the compliance status of their own vehicles and scheduling transportation alternatives should the need arise.
To: Contents | Introduction | A Y2K Backgrounder | Y2K & Animal Facility Hot Spots | Y2K & the Institutional Disaster Plan | Legal and Insurance Issues | Goverment Readiness | Summary
Even the most optimistic Y2K experts will tell you there will be disruptions due to the millennium bug. Many of us have already experienced minor inconveniences like credit card rejections due to a year 2000 expiration date. The severity of the crisis will depend in large part on how our institutions work to fix predictable problems ahead of time, and plan for crises generated by situations that are out of direct institutional control (e.g., failure of utilities). Since we know the millennium date change will bring with it at least some of the problems already discussed, we might look at it as an opportunity to hone our disaster planning and recovery efforts now so that we are more fully prepared for future disasters we cannot so easily predict.
A first step might be to ascertain whether your institution has a Y2K Project Team, get to know the individuals on the team, and be sure your facility’s or department’s needs are represented.
Expecting to fall back on an existing Disaster Recovery Plan (DRP) may not place you in a good position as the millennium turns over. The bulk of existing DRPs consist in recreating existing technology at another site, but do not take into account that the technology itself may fail. In addition, conventional disaster recovery and emergency planning assume a single, large event of unpredictable timing. The Y2K crisis, the timing of which is more or less known, is more likely to involve many little things going wrong, with effects that gradually accumulate. Planning for strategic action needs to be started quickly, since many issues may require the next 12 months to resolve.
While you should use existing DRPs to help determine your priorities, Y2K contingency plans must contain methods for doing things manually that are currently automated. Now would be a good time to explore cross-facility availability of space and services within your institution, as well as to negotiate arrangements for possible cooperation between institutions for needed supplies, staff and services. Advanced coordination with emergency management, police and fire personnel is highly recommended.
Public relations (PR) considerations for Y2K are standard operating procedure for crisis situations. The goal of course is to reassure the public through the media that your institution is in control of the situation and that resolution of the crisis is being handled in an organized and timely manner. As with any crisis, the appropriate person(s) should respond to every media inquiry, and do so promptly to avoid misunderstandings that may make their way to the public. Media statements and other press information should be prepared ahead of time for executive management and marketing/PR departments. The banking industry has been working on the Year 2000 problem for nearly a decade and has generated proactive media and consumer educational Y2K print and video resources; you may want to check with local banks for copies of their Y2K customer information materials.
To: Contents | Introduction | A Y2K Backgrounder | Y2K & Animal Facility Hot Spots | Y2K & the Institutional Disaster Plan | Legal and Insurance Issues | Goverment Readiness | Summary
No one knows for sure what will happen when clocks change to January 1, 2000, except for this — anyone with a Y2K problem will want to blame it on someone ELSE. Peter de Jager, a respected Y2K expert, has described the Year 2000 problem as a lawyer’s dream —“better than an asbestos-filled cigarette.” Y2K is indeed a potential class action nightmare, and legal precedents are already being set. One estimate predicts that Y2K-related litigation in the U.S. alone will top $1 trillion. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has proposed that Congress create a new Federal court modeled after bankruptcy court to handle what is expected to be a flood of Y2K lawsuits.
A great deal of litigation is expected to surface within the healthcare and medical device industries. This is further incentive to inventory and test biomedical equipment and medical devices at your institution or outsource the testing process to experienced consultants. Institutions also have statutory exposure with regard to tax reporting and payment obligations, pensions/401K plans, etc.
The general expectation is that insurers will adopt exclusivity language to rule out coverage for Y2K problems. It is recommended that you investigate the insurance coverage you can expect for your institution.
To: Contents | Introduction | A Y2K Backgrounder | Y2K & Animal Facility Hot Spots | Y2K & the Institutional Disaster Plan | Legal and Insurance Issues | Goverment Readiness | Summary
In February 1998, President Clinton issued an executive order mandating Y2K compliance by all Federal agencies. Nevertheless, compliance information has been difficult to come by, and several General Accounting Office reports suggest many Federal agencies face significant challenges in their Y2K compliance efforts. In June 1998, the Office of Management and Budget directed all Federal agencies of concern, including the Departments of Agriculture and Health and Human Services, to submit monthly progress reports. In September, Vice President Gore met with senior officials at these and other agencies to help them prioritize their Y2K efforts, and in October, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 407-3 to authorize the President’s Council on Y2K Conversion to take control of computer systems of critical agencies that are unlikely to avert a crisis because of the Y2K problem.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has completed an assessment of Y2K preparedness in the emergency services sector and the results can be found online at http://www.fema.gov/nwz98/y2k1216.htm and http://www.fema.gov/y2k/rpt1216.htm. FEMA will be conducting regional Y2K preparedness workshops for state and local emergency managers, state fire marshals, state Y2K coordinators, and others throughout February and March 1999. For more information, contact FEMA at eipa@fema.gov
States are spending more than $3.5 billion to bring their critical systems to compliance, but many of the nation’s local governments, police departments, and fire departments have done nothing to get ready. An ongoing survey of state readiness conducted by the National Association of State Information Resource Executives indicates that only a narrow majority of states have completed remediation projects on more than half their critical systems. The majority of states are way behind, with Alaska in last place with only 15% of its computer systems repaired.
State governments are working overtime to indemnify themselves against lawsuits arising from computer system failures engendered by the Y2K problem. Nevada, Florida, Georgia and Virginia have already enacted legislation barring Y2K lawsuits against their state governments, and similar legislation is under consideration in New York, California, Illinois, and a handful of other states.
A recent survey by the National Association of Counties shows that one-third of the nation’s counties aren’t even aware of the Y2K problem—and about 75% of the 119 counties with populations below 10,000 have not developed a plan for updating their computer systems to deal with the millennial data change. Total Y2K spending among counties is expected to reach $1.7 billion, according to the association.
Compliance information about U.S. cities and towns is no more encouraging. A recent survey found that 54% of New York State’s towns, 48% of its villages, and 26% of its cities have not made plans for Y2K compliance. A similar survey in California found that overall 42% of California cities, counties, and special districts have no funds budgeted to deal with the problem.
To: Contents | Introduction | A Y2K Backgrounder | Y2K & Animal Facility Hot Spots | Y2K & the Institutional Disaster Plan | Legal and Insurance Issues | Goverment Readiness | Summary
The bright spot in the Year 2000 situation for those of us in North America is our time zone relative to Asia, Europe, and Africa. Whatever does happen as the millennium turns over will happen first in the Pacific, then New Zealand/Australia, Japan and the rest of Asia. Europe and Africa will have up to 6 hours warning, and we in the Americas several more. You may want to set up news sources in Asia for New Year’s Eve next year, even possibly setting up an e-mail contact that would be willing to correspond during that time, to decide what contingency plans already in place might need to be implemented.
Whether your instincts side with the optimistic or the most pessimistic Y2K experts, responsible institutions must hope for the best while planning for the worst-case scenario. The sidebar summary on Y2K planning for animal research facilities may assist you in prioritizing your contingency planning efforts. The recovery assessment checklist may also be helpful. The MSMR continues to track Y2K-related issues and can serve as a resource for its members on planning for Y2K, promoting Y2K awareness and its consequences for animal care and the conduct of research, assisting with security preparations, and serving as a Y2K clearinghouse for new information. We hope to play a supportive role for our member institutions to help ensure as smooth a transition as possible into the Year 2000 and beyond.
To: Contents | Introduction | A Y2K Backgrounder | Y2K & Animal Facility Hot Spots | Y2K & the Institutional Disaster Plan | Legal and Insurance Issues | Goverment Readiness | Summary
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