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                    <text>Item ID Number

01708

Author

LeVois, Maurice E.

Corporate Author
RBPOrt/ArtlClB TltlO Typescript: [Update on study protocol], September 20,
1982

Journal/Book Title
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Monday, June 11, 2001

Page 1709 of 1793

�1. On 5 March 1982, the AOWG Science Panel approved a 4
December 1981 DOD/AAQTF conceg&lt;t. _jaaper on cohort selection.
Scecifically, what the Science Panel approved was the
genera1 jprinicj, ple

of selecting battalion, and then

company size, military units for exposrue analysis,
assigning the company A/O exposure score to each member of
that company.

If an individual was reported absent on a

day when his company received an exposure, that
individual's exposure score would be reduced accordingly.
This is a departure from the approach suggested by UCLA, in
which individual subjects were to be drawn at random and
exposure scores developed for each subject individually.

2.

On 5 March 1982, the Science Panel states:

"The

Science Panel will oversee this cohort selection process."
The 4 December 1981 DOD/AAOTF concept gaper was clearly not
a scientifically rigorous methodological protocol.

AOWG

approval of that document should not have been construed as
a signal to proceed with the actual selection of subjects
without first developing a step-by-step protocol with the
assistance of the Science Panel and othe qualified
scientists.

3.

On 10 June 1982, the VA submitted to the AOWG Science '

Panel a memorandum (attached) concerning AAOTF cohort
selection activities. That memo alerted members of the

�Science Panel to the fact that inappropriate and unapproved
decisions concerning cohort composition, exposure criteria,
and selection methods had been made independently by
DOD/AAOTF.

It was the VA's belief that, if the AAOTF

proceeded to select subjects as they proposed, their
efforts would produce unusable cohorts and no useful data
on the feasibility of conducting the larger study.

4. Between 4 December 1981 and 10 June 1982, meetings were
held on the topics of Agent Orange exposure and cohort
selelction and some important progress occured.
°It was generally agreed that a third cohort, roughly
comparable to the two Vietnam cohorts could be assembled,
if that were called for by the final study design.
°A general AAOTP cohort data automation contract was
developed by AAOTF.

It should be noted that general

functional capabilities, not specific data elements, were
approved by the VA.
°A Ranch Hand mission time/distance exposure matrix was
developed.
"Methods of equating the different modes of exposure were
proposed.

Work on this problem continues.

"The AAOTF proceeded with work on an augmented "services"
herbicide application record.

This work also continues.

The AAOTF was never asked by the AOWG or the VA to halt
work on the documentation of herbicide use in Vietnam.
This informiWon is essential to any cohort selelction
process.

�°On 8 April 1982, a letter was sent from VA Administrator
Nimmo to Secretary Weinberger addressing the need for the
support and cooperation of both agencies in this research
effort, (attached)
*J
°0n 8 April 1982, a memo was sent by Secretary Scheiker to
A

Secretary Weinberger, (attached) That memo recommended
that DOD assume responsibility for cohort selection in
support of the VA study.
"On 26 April 1982, Secretary Weinberger issued a tasking
memo to the Secretaries of Army, Navy and Air Force
authorizing full DOD support of this effort, (attached)

"The AOWG Science Panel created a subcommittee to 1. develop
an acceptable Agent Orange exposure index 2. develop a
cohort selection protocol for the AAOTF.
°On 8 September 1982, the Chairman of the Science Panel
forwarded to DOD a draft protocol for cohort selection for
DOD approval.

5.

The AOWG and the VA can not provide the kind of

continuous scientific supervision which is required for
proper cohort selection.

It has become clear that this

important, complex and costly effort cannot be adequately
supervised by a physiologist.

The AAOTF should obtain the

assistance of a qualified epidemiologist and/or
biostatistician before proceeding with their cohort
selection pilot work.

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                  <text>&lt;p style="margin-top: -1em; line-height: 1.2em;"&gt;The Alvin L. Young Collection on Agent Orange comprises 120 linear feet and spans the late 1800s to 2005; however, the bulk of the coverage is from the 1960s to the 1980s and there are many undated items. The collection was donated to Special Collections of the National Agricultural Library in 1985 by Dr. Alvin L. Young (1942- ). Dr. Young developed the collection as he conducted extensive research on the military defoliant Agent Orange. The collection is in good condition and includes letters, memoranda, books, reports, press releases, journal and newspaper clippings, field logs and notebooks, newsletters, maps, booklets and pamphlets, photographs, memorabilia, and audiotapes of an interview with Dr. Young.&lt;/p&gt;&#13;
&lt;p&gt;For more about this collection, &lt;a href="/exhibits/speccoll/exhibits/show/alvin-l--young-collection-on-a"&gt;view the Agent Orange Exhibit.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</text>
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°1695

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LeVois, Maurice E.

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Roport/Artldo Title Memorandum: Agent Orange Research Predecisional
Memorandum, from Maurice E. LeVois to Administrator,
July 29, 1982

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Monday, June 11,2001

Page 1696 of 1793

�Veterans
Administration
Director, Agent Orange Research
and Education Office (001E)

July 29, 1982
Administrator

Slll :

"

Agent Orange Research
Prcdec is iona 1 Memorandum

].. The Ayent Orange epidemiology research protocol has been reviewed
and approved, in general terms, by the White House Agent Orange
Working Group (AOWG) Science Panel, the Congressional Office of
Technology Assessment (OTA), and the VA Advisory Committee on
HeaJth~Related Effects of Herbicides. Although some differences
remain among the recommendations made by these committees, all three
of these review groups support tte idea of including a third cohort to
evaluate the effect of the "Vietnam experience" on the health of
veterans.
vi

2. The AOWG strongly endorses the three cohort research design as an
effective means of evaluating the health effects of both the Vietnam
experience and of exposure to Agent Orange.
3. The three cohort research design may have far reaching
implications:
a)

A third cohort will increase the cost of the study by nearly
50%;

b)

A throe cohort study design will increase the total number of
hypotheses to be tested and, therefore, will increase the
probability of finding both real and chance effects;

c)

Specific risk factors or exposures will be impossible to
identify in the "Vietnam experience" portion of the study.
Flealtii problems found to be associated with Vietnam service
niay require further research to identify causation and
establish the relative increase in risk for each health
problem;

d)

For the purpose of compensation, the assumption of exposure to
a general health risk factor by anyone who served in Vietnam,
without requiring documentation of a specific exposure, may
include very large numbers of veterans. This also applies to
the process of compensation based upon Agent. Orange results;

*•)

If common health problems are found to te weakly associated
with Agent Orange or service in Vietnam (i.e. only a slight
increase in relative risk) then the VA may want to consider an
"attributed risk" formulation for compensating veterans.

4. It is your decision whether or not the VA will conduct a study
of three or only of two cohorts, Public Taw 97-72 states that you
"may" broaden the scop} of the study to look at the general health
effects of service in Vietnam, You rrwy also limit the focus of the
study to the Agent Orange issue.

�'there are a nurnter o£ options available to you:
a)

Broaden the .scop:; of the study by including a third cohort as
the AQWG recommends. This option appears to be consistent
with the wishes of the veterans" service organizations and the
Congress;

b)

Limit the scope of the study to the health effects of Agent
Orange exposure and study only two cohorts. The U.C.L.A.
authors of the research protocol recommend this option on
scientific grounds, but do not present: a strong argument for
their position;

c)

Proceed with plans for a pilot study contract based upon three
cohorts. If the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) ^review
group recommends against the three cohort design drop the
third group and re-negotiate the pilot study contract;

d)

Proceed as in c) atovc. If NAS agrees that a three cohort
study is appropriate, then the pilot study can be used to
evaluate the feasibility of the three cohort design.
Participation rates may be lowest for the third, non-Vietnam,
cohort. If. fewer titan 70% of the potential subjects in that
group participate in the pilot study, the third group may have
to be dropped from the final design for statistical reasons;

e)

Ask the VA Advisory Committee on Health-Related Effects of
Herbicides and the VA Policy Coordinating Committee (PCC) to
consider the three cohort design issue and provide you with
their independent recommendations.

MAURICE E. r.EVOlS
Director, Agent Orange Research
and Education Office

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&lt;p&gt;For more about this collection, &lt;a href="/exhibits/speccoll/exhibits/show/alvin-l--young-collection-on-a"&gt;view the Agent Orange Exhibit.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</text>
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                    <text>Item ID Number

01692

Author

LeVois, Maurice E.

Corporate Author
Typescript: Agent Orange Status Report, June 25, 1982

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Descripton Notes

Monday, June 11, 2001

Page 1693 of 1793

�June 25, 1982

Maurice E. LeVois

Administrator
Deputy Administrator

Agent Orange Status Report

Status report on the aianaqeroent of the V&amp; Agent Orange
Epldowioloqy study, and the matter of whether to include a
third cohort in the deaiqn of the study*

Uo final decision has been reached on the question of
in-house -vs- out-house conduct of the Vft Aqent Grange
epidemiology study. We are exploring options and
evaluating the level of interest, and capability, of
potential scientific contractors and other government
offices the VA nd&lt;jht engage to conduct this study.
Du* to the lengthy scientific review process, ther«
r«raain conflicting views about some aspects of the
protocol, *!'he»e differences nust be reconciled before we
c«n proceed to a final decision about who will actually
direct the scientific investigation,
Our next step in to hire •« itmall VACO scientific staff
and, with the «i&lt;3 of consultants if needed, to begin the
final integration and completion of the UCLA protocol.
Thi» will be done raore quickly if vm also involve the
scientific review committees in this process and if we
identify the scientific oversight panel which will follow
the progress of the actual research,
M the sane time the protocol is being completed, wo
will seek to identify potential inventigators for the pilot
study. We are currently developing a Request For Proposal*?
(tin*)* and a contract statement of work, so that we will he
able to ben in the pilot study as soon &amp;ss possible after the
protocol is finished arid approved. W© hope to conn it PY 32
funds to the pilot study and to begin data collection earlv
In 1983.

�II.

Third.Cc?ho|:t»

The &amp;OUG £ci«nc« Panel has recoraraencled that the VA'a f
epidemiology study Include a third cohort in or&lt;3©r to look
at the broader Issue of possible health effects resulting
from service in Vietnam, Selecting appropriate health
outcomes to adequately represent possible health effects of
the "Vietnam experience", rather than only Agent Oranqe
effects, has b«*n mentioned by OTA as a potential problem.
It is not too difficult to address this issue. The range
of health data included in the UCLA protocol is already
very broad, Th® authors note that their choice of outcomes
to bo eKamine-d relief na much on press reports of Vietnam
veteran's health problem as it did on the .limited
scientific literature on the effects of exposure to phenoxy
herbicides (Appendix G of the tICLA protocol). If the VA is
prepared to conduct an expanded health evaluation, then
health outcomes of interest representing tho entire
"Vietnam experience" could be built into the study.
Representative sajaplinq is e problem not so easily
addressed. There are really two related problems in this
area.
1) The UCLA authors have pointed out that Vietnam
veterans who did not go to Vietnam may differ in important
ways froro those who &lt;3JU3 serve in Vietnam and survived. Hot^
they might differ is not explained. It is reasonalbe to
suppose that military training, physical fitness,
willingness to take risks and the proven ability to survive
a war, are four dimensions v/hich could contribute to very
different health profiles for the Vietnam and non-Vietnam
groups, having nothing to do with exposure to Agent Orange.
This problem, of finding a perfectly comparable third
cohort, can never be totally solved. It will be important
to identify and evaluate the potential size and direction
of health differences thought to exist in these groups
before we proceed with a third cohort.
2) Another sampling problem arises when we atenipt to
conduct both a "Vietnam experience" study, and an Agent
Orange study, using three* cohorts. The? hiqh and low Agent
Orange exposure-likelihood cohorts nust be as similar as
possible on all other factors which cannot be objectively
measured. Combat stress is one example-of an important
potential confounding factor which is difficult, to meanure

�at the level of the Individual soldier. Combat stress
should be controlled by selecting both Aqent Orange
exposure cohorts from combat units thought to be equivalent
in terms of exposure to stress. Idally, the high and low
exposure cohort® should be equivalent in every way except
exposure to Agent Orange, Unfortunately, this approach
reduces the generalinability of the study. If only combat
veterans are sampled,j«»t a fraction of all the troops who
served in Vietnam will be represented.
Do the high and low Agent Orange exposure cohorts, as
presently defined in the protocol, adequately represent the
"Vietnaw experience" (i»e, all of the health risks
encountered by Vietnam veterans)? I don't think so.
However, with careful cohort selection, and very clear
cohort definition, th® "Vietnam experience" represented by
subjects in the two Vietnam cohorts could represent the
most salient aspects of that experience.
The AOWG Science Fan«l ha« recomnendcd a balanced
emphasis on both the broader issue of evaluating all health
risks ansociated with service in Vietnam, and the narrower
question of th® effects of Agent Orange, This will
ultimately require some compromise in the design of both
studies. This will also require further delay while these
issue® are debated, encorporated into the protocol,
reviewed and approved.

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&lt;p&gt;For more about this collection, &lt;a href="/exhibits/speccoll/exhibits/show/alvin-l--young-collection-on-a"&gt;view the Agent Orange Exhibit.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</text>
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01 689
LeVois, Maurice E.

Corporate Author
ROpOrt/ArtltiO TitlO Memorandum: Agent Orange Epidemiology Study
Design, from Maurice Levois to Deputy Administrator,
April 29, 1982

Journal/Book Title
Year

000

°

Month/Day
Color
Number of Imaoes

G

2

Descrlpton Notes

Monday, June 11, 2001

Page 1690 of 1793

�Veterans
Administration

Memorandum
To:

Date:

April 29,

1982

Deputy Administrator (001)
Agent Orange Epidemiology
Study Design

The most recent draft of the University of California at Los
Angeles (UCLA) Agent Orange epidemiology protocol proposed
that two cohorts be selected and studied. These two groups
would be comprised of Army and Marine Corp troops who served
in Vietnam from 1967 - 1969.
One cohort would be comprised of subjects with a high likelihood of exposure to Agent Orange, as described in the exposure
likelihood appendix to the UCLA protocol. The other cohort
would be comprised of subjects with a low likelihood of
exposure to Agent Orange.
Twelve thousand individual's names would be selected
initially by the Department of Defense (DOD) for each cohort.
This list would include the names of deceased servicemen as
well as those still living. The life status and location of
each individual would have to be determined. Prospective
subjects would then be contacted and recruited, up to 6,000
subjects in each cohort.
The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) and the Agent Orange
Working Group's (AOWG) Science Panel have reviewed the UCLA
protocol and have both recommended that a third cohort be
added to the study design to determine whether or not service
in Vietnam has caused any health problems not directly related
to exposure to Agent Orange. The third cohort would be
comprised of 6,000 veterans of the same time period who did
not serve in Vietnam. The health of these veterans would
establish a baseline for comparison with Vietnam veterans.
This third cohort would allow researchers to evaluate possible
effects of service between those who served in Vietnam and
those who did not serve in Vietnam, in addition to the
possible effects of exposure to Agent Orange. Since the
health status of subjects in all three cohorts would be
evaluated in exactly the same way, the addition of a third
cohort would increase the cost of the study by one half.

�Page 2
Deputy Administrator

(001)

Comments and recommendations made by the review groups have
been forwarded to UCLA for their consideration and final
revision of the protocol. The revised UCLA protocol, due to
be returned to the VA today, will be reviewed again by the
committees already mentioned, as well as by the National
Academy of Sciences (WAS) and the VA Advisory Committee.
UCLA's recommendations regarding the cohorts will be carefully
considered by all of the reviewing committees. The final
decision on this and all matters relating to the epidemiology
study will be made by the VA.

MAURICE LEVOIS

Director, Agent Orange Research
and Education Information

�</text>
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&lt;p&gt;For more about this collection, &lt;a href="/exhibits/speccoll/exhibits/show/alvin-l--young-collection-on-a"&gt;view the Agent Orange Exhibit.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</text>
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