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                    <text>Item ID Number

°1695

Author

LeVois, Maurice E.

Corporate Author
Roport/Artldo Title Memorandum: Agent Orange Research Predecisional
Memorandum, from Maurice E. LeVois to Administrator,
July 29, 1982

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Monday, June 11,2001

Page 1696 of 1793

�Veterans
Administration
Director, Agent Orange Research
and Education Office (001E)

July 29, 1982
Administrator

Slll :

"

Agent Orange Research
Prcdec is iona 1 Memorandum

].. The Ayent Orange epidemiology research protocol has been reviewed
and approved, in general terms, by the White House Agent Orange
Working Group (AOWG) Science Panel, the Congressional Office of
Technology Assessment (OTA), and the VA Advisory Committee on
HeaJth~Related Effects of Herbicides. Although some differences
remain among the recommendations made by these committees, all three
of these review groups support tte idea of including a third cohort to
evaluate the effect of the "Vietnam experience" on the health of
veterans.
vi

2. The AOWG strongly endorses the three cohort research design as an
effective means of evaluating the health effects of both the Vietnam
experience and of exposure to Agent Orange.
3. The three cohort research design may have far reaching
implications:
a)

A third cohort will increase the cost of the study by nearly
50%;

b)

A throe cohort study design will increase the total number of
hypotheses to be tested and, therefore, will increase the
probability of finding both real and chance effects;

c)

Specific risk factors or exposures will be impossible to
identify in the "Vietnam experience" portion of the study.
Flealtii problems found to be associated with Vietnam service
niay require further research to identify causation and
establish the relative increase in risk for each health
problem;

d)

For the purpose of compensation, the assumption of exposure to
a general health risk factor by anyone who served in Vietnam,
without requiring documentation of a specific exposure, may
include very large numbers of veterans. This also applies to
the process of compensation based upon Agent. Orange results;

*•)

If common health problems are found to te weakly associated
with Agent Orange or service in Vietnam (i.e. only a slight
increase in relative risk) then the VA may want to consider an
"attributed risk" formulation for compensating veterans.

4. It is your decision whether or not the VA will conduct a study
of three or only of two cohorts, Public Taw 97-72 states that you
"may" broaden the scop} of the study to look at the general health
effects of service in Vietnam, You rrwy also limit the focus of the
study to the Agent Orange issue.

�'there are a nurnter o£ options available to you:
a)

Broaden the .scop:; of the study by including a third cohort as
the AQWG recommends. This option appears to be consistent
with the wishes of the veterans" service organizations and the
Congress;

b)

Limit the scope of the study to the health effects of Agent
Orange exposure and study only two cohorts. The U.C.L.A.
authors of the research protocol recommend this option on
scientific grounds, but do not present: a strong argument for
their position;

c)

Proceed with plans for a pilot study contract based upon three
cohorts. If the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) ^review
group recommends against the three cohort design drop the
third group and re-negotiate the pilot study contract;

d)

Proceed as in c) atovc. If NAS agrees that a three cohort
study is appropriate, then the pilot study can be used to
evaluate the feasibility of the three cohort design.
Participation rates may be lowest for the third, non-Vietnam,
cohort. If. fewer titan 70% of the potential subjects in that
group participate in the pilot study, the third group may have
to be dropped from the final design for statistical reasons;

e)

Ask the VA Advisory Committee on Health-Related Effects of
Herbicides and the VA Policy Coordinating Committee (PCC) to
consider the three cohort design issue and provide you with
their independent recommendations.

MAURICE E. r.EVOlS
Director, Agent Orange Research
and Education Office

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                  <text>&lt;p style="margin-top: -1em; line-height: 1.2em;"&gt;The Alvin L. Young Collection on Agent Orange comprises 120 linear feet and spans the late 1800s to 2005; however, the bulk of the coverage is from the 1960s to the 1980s and there are many undated items. The collection was donated to Special Collections of the National Agricultural Library in 1985 by Dr. Alvin L. Young (1942- ). Dr. Young developed the collection as he conducted extensive research on the military defoliant Agent Orange. The collection is in good condition and includes letters, memoranda, books, reports, press releases, journal and newspaper clippings, field logs and notebooks, newsletters, maps, booklets and pamphlets, photographs, memorabilia, and audiotapes of an interview with Dr. Young.&lt;/p&gt;&#13;
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                    <text>°1703

Item ID Number
Author
Corporate Author

Report/Article Title Typescript: White Paper: Status of VA Epidemiologic
Study of Agent Orange, August 27, 1982

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000

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"DM&amp;S" typed next to date.

Monday, June 11, 2001

Page 1704 of 1793

�DM&amp;S 8/27/82
WHITE PAPER
STATUS OF VA EPIDEMIODOGIC STUDY OF AGENT ORANGE

The epidemiology protocol originally submitted to the VA by the U.C.L.A.
School of Public Health on April 29, 1982, has now been reviewed by the VA
Advisory Committee on Health-Related Effects of Herbicides, the White House
established Agent Orange Working Group (AOWG) and the Office of Technology
Assessment. All of these review groups have noted that further development of
the research protocol is needed in certain areas. For example, each of the
following topics has been mentioned by one or more of the protocol review
groups as needing additional attention: a clear statement of specific hypotheses
to be tested; the data reduction and analytic methods to be employed; the
rationale for a third cohort; and more exact statistical power calculations
associated with these refinements of the protocol.
The protocol is currently being reviewed by a committee of the National
Academy of Sciences (MAS). The VA has been advised that MAS is now in the final
stages of this review process. It is expected that the report will be completed
and forwarded to the Veterans Administration by the third week of September.
Further refinement of the protocol is underway and should be completed during
the month of October. Barring unforeseen complications, a contract for the
conduct of a pilot study of approximately 900 veterans (or 300 per cohort)
should be awarded in the January-February 1983 time frame.
A critical component of the pilot study will be to evaluate the cohort
selection procedures and the feasibility of developing cohorts for the full
scale study which will be twenty times larger than the pilot study cohorts.
This aspect of the protocol was not developed by U.C.L.A. and has become the
focal point of recent activity by the VA, the Army Agent Orange Task Force
(AAOTF) and the AOWG. The basic issue is whether the military records are
sufficiently complete and detailed so as to provide a reliable indicator of

�"likelihood of exposure" to herbicides. The present assessment of the records
suggest that identifying the cohort with a high likelihood of exposure will be
easier than identifying the cohort with low likelihood of exposure. The reason
for this is that the present records of herbicide missions, the HERBS Tape,
provide a reference point for estimating likelihood of exposure because
tracking a company in an area known to have been sprayed with herbicides on a
given day can be objectively determined by the records. When looking for units
considered "not likely exposed" the record searchers can only assume selected
units were not near herbicide targets; a subjective evaluation; thus, they
cannot document the absence of exposure to herbicides.

It is important

therefore to note that misclassifying an individual as to likelihood of exposure
can result in "diluting-out" any health effect that may be present and
associated with exposure.
The AOWG has appointed a subcommittee of its Science Panel to establish
procedures for cohort selection for the epidemiology pilot study. The VA has
brought in biostatistical consultants to work with this subcommittee and with
the AAOTF. The subcommittee is now in the process of preparing its final
report to the Science Panel. When this report is forwarded to the VA, a
recommendation will be made by the Chief Medical Director to the Administrator
as to whether the pilot study will focus only on Agent Orange or whether it will
center on the total Vietnam experience with Agent Orange as a major emphasis.
The pilot study itself is expected to be a major factor in the final
decision to broaden or limit the scope of the full scale epidemiology study.
That decision may not be made until the results of the pilot study are available
in late 1984 or early 1985.

2.

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&lt;p&gt;For more about this collection, &lt;a href="/exhibits/speccoll/exhibits/show/alvin-l--young-collection-on-a"&gt;view the Agent Orange Exhibit.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</text>
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01708

Author

LeVois, Maurice E.

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RBPOrt/ArtlClB TltlO Typescript: [Update on study protocol], September 20,
1982

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Monday, June 11, 2001

Page 1709 of 1793

�1. On 5 March 1982, the AOWG Science Panel approved a 4
December 1981 DOD/AAQTF conceg&lt;t. _jaaper on cohort selection.
Scecifically, what the Science Panel approved was the
genera1 jprinicj, ple

of selecting battalion, and then

company size, military units for exposrue analysis,
assigning the company A/O exposure score to each member of
that company.

If an individual was reported absent on a

day when his company received an exposure, that
individual's exposure score would be reduced accordingly.
This is a departure from the approach suggested by UCLA, in
which individual subjects were to be drawn at random and
exposure scores developed for each subject individually.

2.

On 5 March 1982, the Science Panel states:

"The

Science Panel will oversee this cohort selection process."
The 4 December 1981 DOD/AAOTF concept gaper was clearly not
a scientifically rigorous methodological protocol.

AOWG

approval of that document should not have been construed as
a signal to proceed with the actual selection of subjects
without first developing a step-by-step protocol with the
assistance of the Science Panel and othe qualified
scientists.

3.

On 10 June 1982, the VA submitted to the AOWG Science '

Panel a memorandum (attached) concerning AAOTF cohort
selection activities. That memo alerted members of the

�Science Panel to the fact that inappropriate and unapproved
decisions concerning cohort composition, exposure criteria,
and selection methods had been made independently by
DOD/AAOTF.

It was the VA's belief that, if the AAOTF

proceeded to select subjects as they proposed, their
efforts would produce unusable cohorts and no useful data
on the feasibility of conducting the larger study.

4. Between 4 December 1981 and 10 June 1982, meetings were
held on the topics of Agent Orange exposure and cohort
selelction and some important progress occured.
°It was generally agreed that a third cohort, roughly
comparable to the two Vietnam cohorts could be assembled,
if that were called for by the final study design.
°A general AAOTP cohort data automation contract was
developed by AAOTF.

It should be noted that general

functional capabilities, not specific data elements, were
approved by the VA.
°A Ranch Hand mission time/distance exposure matrix was
developed.
"Methods of equating the different modes of exposure were
proposed.

Work on this problem continues.

"The AAOTF proceeded with work on an augmented "services"
herbicide application record.

This work also continues.

The AAOTF was never asked by the AOWG or the VA to halt
work on the documentation of herbicide use in Vietnam.
This informiWon is essential to any cohort selelction
process.

�°On 8 April 1982, a letter was sent from VA Administrator
Nimmo to Secretary Weinberger addressing the need for the
support and cooperation of both agencies in this research
effort, (attached)
*J
°0n 8 April 1982, a memo was sent by Secretary Scheiker to
A

Secretary Weinberger, (attached) That memo recommended
that DOD assume responsibility for cohort selection in
support of the VA study.
"On 26 April 1982, Secretary Weinberger issued a tasking
memo to the Secretaries of Army, Navy and Air Force
authorizing full DOD support of this effort, (attached)

"The AOWG Science Panel created a subcommittee to 1. develop
an acceptable Agent Orange exposure index 2. develop a
cohort selection protocol for the AAOTF.
°On 8 September 1982, the Chairman of the Science Panel
forwarded to DOD a draft protocol for cohort selection for
DOD approval.

5.

The AOWG and the VA can not provide the kind of

continuous scientific supervision which is required for
proper cohort selection.

It has become clear that this

important, complex and costly effort cannot be adequately
supervised by a physiologist.

The AAOTF should obtain the

assistance of a qualified epidemiologist and/or
biostatistician before proceeding with their cohort
selection pilot work.

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                    <text>Item D Number

°2034

Author

Young, Alvin L.

Corporate Author
RBDOrt/ArtiCle Title Letter: to The Honorable Mr. Justice Phillip Evatt from
Alvin L. Young, July 13, 1984

Journal/Book Title
Year

000

°

Month/Day
Color

D

Number of Images

1

DeSCrlptOn NOtBS

Letter is updating Evatt on the Agent Orange activities in the
United States, including several studies. Young also
expresses his opinion that the Royal Commission must
continue its work seeking a thorough assessment of the
scientific data so that the most accurate picture and answers
can be given to the veterans of both countries.

Tuesday, August 07, 2001

Page 2034 of 2084

�EXECUTIVE C
OFFICE OF SCIE

,/
-

--

OtOGY POLICY

WASH^UTON, D.C. 20506

July 13, 1984

Dear Judge:
It has been a few months since our last communication. I believe
it is important to bring you up-to-date on activities related to
Agent Orange. Currently, efforts are underway through the auspices
of the White House Agent Orange Working Group, to advance the
Veterans Administrations Identical Twins Study (VETS) and the
National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health's (NIOSH)
Dioxin Registry and accompanying mortality and morbidity studies.
In addition in mid-August the Center For Disease Control will
release its completed Birth Defects Study.
Although, much of the activity involving the Vietnam Veterans and
Agent Orange appears, at least in the press, to center on the
legal out-of-court settlement activities in New York, the Federal
Government continues to press for scientific answers to the critical
health questions posed by this issue. The dichotomy is that in
the United States we may not get the opportunity to place before
the public and the veteran and scientific communities a proper
assessment of the scientific information.
For that reason, I believe it is imperative that the Royal Commission
continues to seek a very thorough assessment of the scientific
data. It is only through a process of open and complete scientific
dialogue that we can hope to provide answers to the very complicated
situation that surrounds the men and women who so gallantly served
in Vietnam. I hope that the proposed epidemiologic study, planned
during my visit to Australia, can be conducted and the results
viewed by your Commission.
I feel that a trip to the United States to meet with the research
and veteran communities should clearly be taken before the Commission
completes its assessment. I will be pleased to assist in appropriate
arrangements.
Sincer
Alvin L.l YoCTng, Ph.D.
Senior Policy Analyst
for Life Sciences
The Honorable Mr. Justice Phillip Evatt, D.S.C.
Royal Commissioner
Royal Commission on the Use &amp; Effects of Chemical
Agents on Australian Personnel in Vietnam
G.P.O. Box 4842
SYDNEY, N.S.W., 2001 ,
AUSTRALIA

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°1835

Author

Keller, Carl

Corporate Author
Report/Article Title Memorandum with several attachments: from
Chairman, Science Panel, AOWG, to Members of the
Science Panel, AOWG, with subject Meeting of the
Science Panel, dated February 5, 1985.

Journal/Book Tito
Year

000

°

Month/Day
Color

H

Number of Images

12

DOSCTipton Notes

Avn

' ' L- Young filed this item under "Vietnam Veterans
Twin Study." Memo gives notice of a science panel
meeting scheduled for February 21, 1985 with the
purpose of reviewing the VETS II protocol.
Attachments include inquiries about the possiblity of a
female Vietnam veterans study, and the minutes of the
November 29,1984 meeting of the Science Panel of
the Agent Orange Working Group.

Wednesday, July 11, 2001

Page 1836 of 1870

�"r

DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH &amp; HUMAN SERVICES

•

Date

Memorandum

February 5, 1985

From

Public Health Service

National Institutes of Health

Chairman, Science Panel, AOWG

Subject Meeting of the Science Panel
TO

Members of the Science Panel, AOWG
This is to announce that there will be a meeting of the Science Panel
of the Agent Orange Working Group at 9:30 a.m., February 21, 1985, in
room 729G of the Hubert Humphrey Building, Washington, D.C.
The purpose of the meeting will be to review the protocol for the
Veterans Administration Twin Study (VETS II). You will (or will have)
receive(d) a copy of this protocol under seperate cover. I am
enclosing some comments made by a special review group last summer for
your information. Please bring your written comments to the meeting
and we will summarize our review at that time.
We have also received additional congressional correspondence concerning female Veterans' needs. It appears that we are now being
requested to recommend what, if any, studies of the health of female
Vietnam veterans should be done and to examine proposed studies in
that light. I am enclosing appropriate materials and we will discuss
this at our meeting.
In addition, please find enclosed the minutes of our last meeting
(November 29, 1984) for your approval.

Carl Keller, Ph.D.

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COMMITTEE ON VETERANS' AFFAIRS
WASHINGTON, DC 20510

January 23, 1985
Honorable Charles Baker
Chair
Cabinet Council Agent Orange
Working Group
Department of Health and Human Services
Humbert Humphrey Building, 614-G
200 Independence Avenue, S.W.
Washington, D.C. 20201
Dear Mr. Baker,
I have long had a strong interest in the issue of how the Federal
Government might conduct research to investigate the possible health
effects in female Vietnam veterans of their exposure to Agent Orange.
Enclosed is a copy of an October 16, 1984, letter to me on this
subject from Dr. James 0. Mason, the Director of the Centers for
Disease Control.
It is my understanding that the draft protocol outline mentioned in
Dr. Mason's letter is pending in the Agent Orange Working Group and
may be considered during the Group's next meeting, which is scheduled
to take place in early February. I believe that it is extremely
important that research be undertaken on this issue, and I strongly
urge that the Working Group undertake its review of the protocol
outline as expeditiously as possible. It is my strong hope that the
members of the Working Group will be able to report favorably on the
possibility of a study of female Vietnam veterans, either by endorsing
the protocol outline as developed by CDC or by suggesting whatever
changes to the outline the members believe are needed in order for a
study to go forward.
Thank you for your attention to my views on this issue. I would
appreciate hearing from you on this matter as soon as possible after
the Working Group's February meeting.
With best wishes,
Sin

Alah Cranston
Ranking Minority Member
Enclosure

�CTER

JUDICIARY
APPROPRIATIONS
VETERANS' AFFAIRS

WASHINGTON. D.C. 20SIO

January 4, 1985

The Honorable Margaret M. Heckler
Secretary
Department of Health and Human Services
200 Independence Avenue, S.W.
Washington, D.C. 20201
Dear Secretary Heckler:
I write regarding the government's epidemiological study on Agent Orange
being conducted by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).
As a member of the Senate Veterans' Affairs Committee, I am very concerned
that CDC's study fails to include women who served in Vietnam. Approximately
20,000 women served there as members of the military or as civilians employed
by service organizations. Many of these women are now suffering from health
problems that may be associated with Agent Orange.
It is my sense that research is needed to assess the problems among women
who were in Vietnam to avoid excluding them from Agent Orange compensation
programs.
I urge that this omission be rectified by the Health and Human Services
Administration. Your consideration of this request is greatly appreciated.
Sincerely,

Arlen Specter
AS:gfs

_ *s •-

TRACER

�'DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH &amp; HUMAN SERVICES

Public Health Service
Centers for Disease Control

Memorandum
Date

'December 20, 1984

From

Director, Center for Environmental Health

Subject

Possible Study of Female Vietnam Veterans

To

Dr. Carl Keller
Chair, AOWG Science Panel

At the Agent Orange Working Group (AOWG) Meeting of December 4, 1984,
Dr. Brandt requested that the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the
AOWG Science Panel discuss what additional information the Science Panel
would need to assess the scientific utility of a study of female Vietnam
veterans.
As you know, CDC assessed the feasibility of a study of women veterans
and described the possible study approach in a protocol outline dated
June 25, 1984, copy attached. In that document and in the attached
memorandum to Dr. Brandt from Dr. James Mason, CDC Director, responding
to the Science Panel's initial critique, of the protocol outline, CDC
stated its belief that a comprehensive health assessment of female
Vietnam veterans motivates the study, rather than any specific
hypothesis. In addition, there are gender-specific issues that would not
permit generalization of male data to the female veteran.
CDC has also clearly stated that the proposed study is a "Vietnam
Experience" study rather than an "Agent Orange" study, per se. By that,
I mean we believe it will not be possible to estimate individual female
veterans' opportunity for exposure by relating their unit's location to
herbicide spraying missions. Like the "Vietnam Experience" study being
conducted in males, the study of female veterans would compare the health
of Vietnam veterans to comparable veterans who served elsewhere. Any of
the exposures women veterans experienced in Vietnam, (e.g. stress of
caring for a high volume of combat casualties, parasitic diseases,
whatever Agent Orange may have been ubiquitous in the Vietnamese environment, etc.) might influence the health of Vietnam veterans compared to
other female veterans.

�Page 2 - Dr. Keller
Given these two assumptions, that any health assessment of women Vietnam
veterans should be as comprehensive as that in male Vietnam veterans, and
that the study should look at all exposures in Vietnam, not exclusively
at the opportunity for Agent Orange exposure, I believe that the study
described in the protocol outline is appropriate. If the Science Panel
can provide CDC with a list of specific hypotheses that will address the
health concerns of female Vietnam veterans, I will request the resources
to develop a protocol to study these hypotheses.
I look forward to hearing from you in the near future. Please do not
hesitate to contact me if you have any further questions.

r,

~\": I
Vernon N. Houk, M.D.
Attachments

�MOV T!) 19M
Director
Centers for Disease Control
Possible Study of Female Vietnam Veterans
Edward N. Brandt» Jr.» M.D.
Chair Pro Tempore
Cabinet Council Agent Orange Working Group
Thank you for the opportunity to review and respond to the Agent Orange
Working Croup Science Panel*• critique of th« protocol outline for a study of
female Vietnam veterans. The Science Panel mentioned two Issues which they
felt must be carefully considered before proceeding further with development
of the study:
1) "the great potential for confounding exposures both during and after
Vietnam to teratogenlc agents other than herbicides and their
contaminants," and
2) "what a study of female veterans will contribute In the way of
scientific Information which Is not already being obtained from the
ongoing male studies."
Cf»C shares the Science Panel's Interest In having a research plnn which
addresses potentially confounding exposures* In this regard, it is important
to consider the purpose of the study. As stated in the protocol outline, the
proposed study is similar to the Vietnam Experience Study of men currently
being conducted. All the exposures unique to the Vietnam environment, from
parasitic diseases* to psychological stress, to waste anesthetic gases nay
influence the health of the Vietnam veteran cohort. Agent Orange Is only one
of many exposures Included In this experience.
For analyses of the effects of Vietnam service in general, exposure to t-xcese
waste anesthetic gases in field hospitals in Vietnam would not be a confounder
of the association of Vietnam service with health outcomes. Rather, the
anesthetic gases are but one of the many exposures that are part of the
Vietnam Experience* On the other hand, for analyses focusing on specific
exposures experienced in Vietnam, such as Agent Orange, waste anesthetic cfls
exposure might be • confounder* Such analyses would be expected to control
for operating room experience In Vietnam. Occupational exposures, Including
waste anesthetic gases, experienced after military service might also be
potential confounding factors since they could differ between the Vietnam and
non-Vietnam female veterans. Again, these exposures would be considered in
the analysis.
To respond to the general concern about confounding, CDC would deal with
potentially confounding factors in this study with the same approach used in
the recent Birth Defects Study and the ongoing study of male veterans.

�2 - Fdward K. Brandt, Jr., M.D.
retailed Information would be gathered from personal Interviews and record
revjf»we about potential conf minders, e.g., dorofirapltic, occupational, or other
risk factor* for disease that might occur with differing frequencies among
Vietnam and non-Vietnam veterans. In the analysis such factors would be
controlled for, eliminating any actual confounding effect of th&lt;:&amp;e variables.
The second concern of th« Science Panel related to the research questions
urique to women thut would beflr'dreftsedin the proposed study. As fitatf^
above, the study is primarily designed to look at military service in Vietnam,
in p.enrral, as the, «r.ain exposure of Interest, rather than estltiatee of /,pent
Orcn^e exposure. Two caveats should be mentioned regarding the study of Apcnt
Or/jT&gt;£e exposure, per so, in relation to the health of feraale Vietnam
veterans. First, because of the duties of t»oet women w^o served in Viet nan,
thfir livelihood of erposure to Agent Orange may bo less than that of c-.ale
Vletnan veterans. *o«t women who served In Vletnso ver*» stationed «t military
horprtals cr headquarter units that were at some distance frora the heaviest
&lt;\f&gt;fcnt Orange sprayings. Second, if, ns speculated by BOP.C scientists, A^cnt
Ornpfle residues became ubiquitous throughout Vletnan, female Vietn*a- veteror.s
way hav« been exposed throi^gh food supplies, drinking water, etc. 1'ofcovor,
these types of expoBurcs could not be quantified by relating the prrotii.ity c.f
the women'* units to the Ranch llnnd sprayinfc missions or other applications of
A.r.«?nr.
Throe ^road protipR of hoalth ontcoyfs would be studied In relattor to VJetvan
norvicei reproductive outcone«, psychologic outcotaen, and gercral
outconts for which T?otwsn may experience different risks than tnpn.
^productive outcomes would include fertility, spontaneous abortion*,
con^enltol irnlforciarlono as well as dlRRawcc of fetr^lo reproductive
Presnaney outcomes of the women are of pwrtJcular interest since maternal
are more c.onnonly aesocfnted with adverfle effects than p«r«rn3l
flseasps of reproductive organs nny be related to the Intiurnce of
various stresses *nJ insults to the delJcate hypothalarjic-pitultrry-ovarlan
ai:lp. Also of note in this repard, certain subclinical paraoitlc diseases,
ns iralrria nnd acicbiasie, rsy becowc nanifewt during the f;trrt;n of
outcoreo such as nnxlfty, dt-prrsslor, and font lYaur.atlc P
rirord«r and hehrtvloral outcomes nuch no substance abuse and crininal activity
r;ny crhihit different potternw In r.ole and frwnJc VlettJfln1 veterans. ^'Ith «
.l»r^e proportion of acute care nnrses onon^ female Vietnam vetor.^nH, special
c.o»&gt;6 iteration would he given to possible ntr«sr.ft*l effects of curing frr a
lorfc* volune of combat casualties. The psychosocial component of the fennle
study is also crucial to the cowplete evaluation and interpretation of t heother clitics! data to he collected, specifically in the determination of
outcwrs as a cause v«rnun on effect of plynlcal and Mochcrical
(e.R. hepatitis, cirrhosis, memory c!lsorder&amp;).
f'enrrsl health outcooca would Include n vnrlety of conditions of concern to
fenole vi«tnair. veterans* These outcomes are similar to those helnr. *ddr«BFct'
IP tie ongoing study of trale veterans. An was the case 1n the study of p-alc
v*»tcr«ns, there are few specific hypotheses based on previous scientific
studies. CPC believer* that a comprehensive health Interview and physical
exsii-« nation would he n?edcd f.o addrees the veterans' concerns thoroughly.

�Page 3 - Edward N. Brandt, Jr., M.D»

The Rtatifttlcal power of the propoeed atudy for Important health outconon
would be good. Tha Interview phase of the study la designed to detect
Increases of about twofold in the relative rieka for health outcomes occurrinr
with the frequency of 0.3Z» while the examination phaae is designed to detect
twofold incraaaea in conditions that occur with a frequency of 1*52 or greater
(power * 0.95, Alpha * 0*05, J-tail). With that level of statistical power,
moat conditions that ara of concern to women vho eerved in Vietnam will be
adequately addressed. Only relatively email incraaaea in uncoeaon conditions
would escape detection*
The Intent of the atudy which CDC was aaked to propoaa la to address the
health concama of female Vietnam veterans comprehensively and with sufficient
atatiatlcal precision* That haa determined the study design and sample oize,
rather than any single research hypothesis.
The coat of doing this atudy la significant. A decision to do this resenrch,
in a world of finite raeourc«a, aay aean that money for other activities may
not be available. We ara neutrsl on doing the atudy* However, if a decision
is made to proceed, wa ara confident that we can do a valid atudy, acceptable
to the yetarana groups, if we are provided the necaaaary resources.
We will he plen*«d to provide any further information you need.
&gt;****
Jamas ^rMaflon;"'V,f!#8fcP«H.
Assistant Surgeon General

cc:
OD
CEH
CDC/W
ES/PHS

Tracer 85084; CDC ID D19247; CEH #B-59
10/19/84
CDC:CEH!CDD:AOP:PLayde:dd/doc

�Minutes of the November 29, 1984 Meeting of the
Science Panel of the Agent Orange Working Group
The Science Panel of the AOWG met at 9:30 AM on November 29, 1984, in the
offices of the United States Army and Joint Services Environmental Support
Group (ESG) in room 210, Riddell Building, 1730 K Street, NW, Washington,
D.C. Attendees were as indicated on the attached attendance sheet.
The purpose of the meeting was to review in depth the procedures to be used
by the ESG to assign an Exposure Opportunity Index to individual Vietnam
veterans identified from other sources. Since the procedures had been
developed during the CDC Birth Defects Study, individual records of Vietnam
veteran participants in that study were available for review. Several
individual records were selected to illustrate the information available
and the method and steps used to assign an estimate of the likelihood of
exposure to Agent Orange while in Vietnam.
The method used in the CDC Birth Defects Study assigned a value from one to
five to each veteran depending on the recorded proximity of his unit to an
Agent Orange application while he was assigned to the unit. The value of
the assigned index also took into account the particular job classification
that the veteran had at the time. For example, a veteran whose job was
either clerical, administrative or logistical would not be expected to be
with his unit while on patrol away from the base, although he might be
expected to serve guard duty on the base perimeter. If exposure consisted
of a patrol approaching a Ranch Hand spray track, he would not be included,
but if exposure consisted of base perimeter spraying, he could have been
exposed.
A score of five (highly likely to have been exposed) was assigned to all
individuals in a unit which was known to have been within two kilometers
within 72 hours of an Agent Orange application and who held military occupational specialties (job classifications) implying that they should have
been with their assigned unit on such a mission. A score of five was also
assigned to all veterans known to have handled Agent Orange, such as Ranch
Handers or chemical personnel. A score of one (very unlikely to have been
exposed) indicated that the veteran was assigned to a unit which was
neither known nor expected to have been near an application site. Scores
of two to four indicated a range of possibility from probably not exposed
to probably exposed.
Although the methods used to develop these procedures involved considerable
subjective judgement on the part of the investigators, a description of the
Vietnam experience contained in the records of veterans classified as "very
unlikely to have been exposed" seems quite adequate to consider them as
much less likely to have been exposed to Agent Orange than those classified
as "highly likely to have been exposed". Members of the Science Panel unanimously agreed that the data and methods under consideration are adequate
to classify many of the veterans into groups which were highly likely or
very unlikely to have been exposed to Agent Orange while in Vietnam. Other
methods for assigning intermediate values need to be completed and may best
be adopted for specific studies where necessary.

�Some of the implications of using the Exposure Opportunity Index as defined
above were discussed as follows:
1) Some veterans cannot be classified because their records are not
available or are incomplete. It is thought that this will be a
small group if adequate search is undertaken.
2) Many veterans, such as would fall in groups two to four of the CDC
Birth Defects classification system, cannot be unambiguously
assigned to highly likely or very unlikely exposed catagories.
Several suggestions as to how to handle these were:
a) Classify them as unknown and drop them from further analysis.
This would have rendered approximately one half of the Vietnam
veterans in the CDC Birth Defects Study as unclassifiable.
b) Use five classes (as in the CDC Birth Defects Study) or
one or more intermediate classes. This system, would
retain larger numbers of classifiable study subjects,
but may reduce the statistical power of a study due to
missel ass ifications.
c) Attempt to classify all veterans with available records
into likely or unlikely exposed groups. This is also
almost certainly going to increase missclassification
and therefor reduce statistical power.
3) The index as currently developed is intended to be a measure of the
likelyhood that any exposure took place and presents some problems
during analysis since it is not a dose response statistic. Using
the computer methods now available, there is the possibility for
counting the number of encounters a given unit may have had and
trying to estimate the intensity of exposure. There is some support
for this since almost all of the encounters which a given unit has
had may be recorded in the quarterly reports (at least in those
units which have been specifically examined).
4) There is clearly an association between combat and Agent Orange
exposure since combat operations are a major factor in determining
opportunities for exposure at the individual as well as the unit
level. This must be considered in the light of specific study needs
e.g., it may not have been relevant for a Birth Defects Study, but
may be important in a Mortality Study.
5) While the methods which have been developed do provide for an estimation of the number of opportunities for exposure, there has been
no attempt to quantify the possible exposure amount. The index only
assigns a value to the likelihood that a given veteran was within
two kilometers within three days of an application of Agent Orange.
Whether this constitutes an effective toxic dose cannot be determined from the records and is the subject of ongoing health effects
research.
In order to assist in the usefulness of these methods for future research,
a subpanel was assigned the task of developing guidelines for the application of these alternative methods to specific studies. The meeting
adjourned at 1:30 PM, November 29, 1984.

�,

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U.S.

�Department of Medicine
and Surgery

Washington D.C. 20420

Veterans
Administration
JAN 3 0 1985
In Reply Refer To:

10A7

Dear Colleague:
Enclosed is a copy of the latest version of the Vietnam
Experience Twin Study Protocol. These are being distributed
at the request of Dr. Carl Keller—he will be in touch with
you in the near future to arrange a meeting to discuss his
plans for reviewing the protocol.
Sincerely,

BARCLAY M. (BHEPARD ,* M. D.

Director
Agent Orange Projects Office
Enclosure

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