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&lt;p&gt;For more about this collection, &lt;a href="/exhibits/speccoll/exhibits/show/alvin-l--young-collection-on-a"&gt;view the Agent Orange Exhibit.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</text>
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                <text>Herbicide Use and Incidence of Neural - Tube Defects</text>
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                    <text>Item ID Number

°0661

Author

Fukushima, Y.

Corporate Author
Typescript: Report from Vietnam, the Casualties of
Agent Orange Among the Vietnamese: What is
Happening with the Children in Vietnam Now?

Journal/Book Title
Year

1982

Month/Day
Color

G

Number of Images

3

DOSCriptOn NOtBS

^'v'n ^ Young filed this item under the category
"Human Exposure to Phenoxy Herbicides and TCDD"

Tuesday, February 20, 2001

Page 661 of 680

�Report Horn viiiinam,
-ij the Casualties of Agent Orange among the Vietnamese:
What is happening with the children in Vietnam now?
-•

Professor Y. Fukushima and Mrs. R. Watanuki

V
A./

This year, 1982, is just 10 years since the "Herbicide Bombing" in the
Vietnam war ended, rightly called "Genocide". It was stopped by strong
international opposition to the use of "agent orange" by the U.S. military
forces. ;.It is nowv20 years )since this .weapon was: first used.
In these 10 years, some important reports on the disruption of the
natural ecology by the herbicide have been published. "Ecological Consequence of Second Indochina War" published by SIPRI is one of these materials,
but the number of publicationson the effect on human health is rather limited,
not only as it affected soldiers but also the local inhabitants who were
victims of the herbicide.
It is estimated that about 1 - 1 0 ppm of Dioxin ( , , , - tetrachlo2378
dibenzodioxin) was used in the herbicide named Agent Orange (mixture of
2,4,5 - T and 2,4,D). Though the'precise concentration is not yet clear;
animal experiments make it clear that.Dioxin is as severe .as radioactivity..in
causing malformations"/ It is a matter of serious concern that health damage,
and especially the malformation of children, has resulted.
A
report
"There
Dioxin

statement made by the U.S., the user of Agent Orange is found in the
of the U.S. National Academy of Science, published in 1974; it says
was no conclusive evidence of an association between Agent Orange/
and birth defects in humans."

In a report on Vietnam we read, "In Vietnam, hundreds of Kg of Dioxin
was sprayed on two million hectares in ten successive years, and over two'
million people came under its direct influence.."
From 1979, the National Committee for Investigation of the Sequel of the
U.S. Chemical Warfare in Vietnam began work in earnest, an Epidemiological
Survey, under the most serious economic and technical difficulties. .The I
Committee is.planning to organize an International Symposium in Vietnam next'
January on the effects of the use of the herbicide.' They invite and call for
the collaboration of scientists from all over the world. The influence of the
toxicity of Dioxin on the fetus will be one of the most crucial subjects of
discussion.
The late Dr. Ton That Tung, former president of the Committee, stated in
his last Article in June 1982, as follows; "In South Vietnam, dioxin has been*'
proved to persist and accumulate in the human body. Of the Vietnam veterans /
who'had been checked,.thirty_per cent .had dioxin in.their fat/1
What is happening to the children of Vietnam, whose parents were exposed
to Agent Orange? What will happen to future "Unborn Generations"? In what
forms is fetus death occurring? Mrs. Watanuki, the co-author of this report,
visited Vietnam in June-July this year, and had opportunities to discuss these
questions with Vietnamese scientists, and also had the chance to hear from
victims on the problems. A summary of her experiences is given below.

�(I)

Outbreak of malformations.

^

Much data on epidemiological surveys is not yet available, but according
to survey data from over 10 years recorded by Dr. Thi Ngoc Phuong and his
colleagues, malformation rates are as follows:
2.3/1000 live births; in 1952 (Before the spraying of A.O.) *—.
5.9/1000 live births in' 1965 (After the use of A.O.)^,
8.6/1000 live births in 1969 *-^'
11.2/1000 live births in 1979 ^
Epidemiological data published in January 1982 in the Ben The Province,
South Mekong Delta of Vietnam, oh the malformation rate in 3 villages, Luong
Hoa, Luong Phu and Thvan Dien, with a total population of 12,000.
1.2/1000 live births
17.9/1000 live births

(Before spray ing) £-/
(After spraying)

There are various forms of malformation. For example; Anencephaly,
Hydrocephalus, Cleft lip and cleft palate, Polydactylism, Anothalmy, Microcephalia dementia, Genuvalgan, Congenital heart disease, Anotia, and others.
As the surveys have just begun, the not-so-serious defects have no definite
data.
The results of the Epidemiological survey done by Prof. Ton That Tung
and his colleagues in Viet-Duc Hospital is very shocking. It suggests that
the tetragenic effect on the fetus is possible via the mother whose husband
was exposed to Agent Orange (Dioxin) . There is a crucial problem of chromosomal
aberration. (Vietnam Courie, "US Chemical Warfare and its Consequences".) In
this survey 1549 wives of former soldiers who had served 3 to 5 years in the
war in south Vietnam, and supposedly were exposed to the herbicide spraying,
were examined for abnormalities in pregnancy and the delivery of children.
. Malformation rate
A. Exposed group
B. Control

31. A/1000 live births S
2.1/1000 live births """"^

The difference is very striking.
(II) Appearance of miscarriages.
Miscarriage rate
0.45 - 1.2%
10.9 - 20.3%

(Tu-Du Hospital Survey)
in 1952-55
in 1967-79

(Before spraying) ^
(After spraying) -^

Miscarriage rate (Only, fathers exposed)
14.42%
9.04% (Control)
The miscarriage rate in Haiphong; 0.49%, Hanoi; 0.63% and Hung Yen; 0 3 % /
.4.
(III) Examples of malformities.

There seems a special correlation between exposed parents, either one of
father or mother to the children. We cite three examples, as follows:

- 2-

�" Case (1).

HANOI - VNA 0732 GMT, 27 Oct. 1981

,

Mrs. T. (40 years old) had given birth to seven normal children. In
November 1975, she and her husband moved to Khoi Trung Hamlet, Cau Khoi
.village during two months of pregnancy. On February 1980, she had another
jjfiscarriage at five months of pregnancy. The miscarried fetus was a deformed
girl. It lacked a right leg, three toes on the left foot, three fingers on
the right hand, one phlalanx on each of three fingers.
Case ( ) Report from the same source.
2.
Mrs. N. (26 years old) previously lived at Thai Xuan Hamlet, Tay Nibh
Town. She had had two normal childbirths. In late 1979 she moved to Lung
Giang Hamlet, Ben Cau district. On January 1981 she gave birth to a 2.4 kg
baby with Anencephaly. The baby lived only two hours.
Case (3)»

From interview.

Mrs. L. (40 years old) lived in Ninh Bien and never went to the sprayed
area in the south. She delivered a normal child in 1964. In 1969 she deliver
ed a child of Anothaly (with no eyes). In 1971 another child of the same
malformation was born. Her husband went into military service after she
delivered the first normal child. He served in South Vietnam in an area
sprayed with the herbicide. Under exposure he became unhealthy and returned
home.
From the above data we conclude as follows:
(1) The possiblity exists that Chromosomic -alterations and sometimes death
occur among children delivered by mothers where the fathers were affected by
dense Dioxin. When mothers are affected by the herbicide it is also dangerous.
(2) We must recognize that the inhabitants in south districts where the
herbicides were sprayed, even now are under Dioxin exposure. In Vietnam, many
villagers in such districts are always exposed to the danger and unable to
carry on their normal lives or have healthy children.
This form of genocide is continuing through later generations even after
the war ended, as a result of using chemical warfare. No one can remain silent
on this serious issue.
It means that there is need for a thorough survey on the effects of the
herbicide, not only on the living but also on unborn generations to whom the
toxicity is transmitted through their parents.
The casualties in Vietnam are a most serious warning to all mankind against
the use of chemical warfare, as of nuclear weapons.

- 3-

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&lt;p&gt;For more about this collection, &lt;a href="/exhibits/speccoll/exhibits/show/alvin-l--young-collection-on-a"&gt;view the Agent Orange Exhibit.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</text>
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&lt;p&gt;For more about this collection, &lt;a href="/exhibits/speccoll/exhibits/show/alvin-l--young-collection-on-a"&gt;view the Agent Orange Exhibit.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</text>
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°0722

Author

Hatch, Maureen

Corporate Author

American Public Health Association, Washington, D.C.

ROPOrt/ArtidB TltlO Spontaneous Abortion and Exposure During Pregnancy
to the Herbicide 2,4,5-T

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February

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^

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66

DeSCrlptOU NOtBS

Alvin L

Friday, March 02, 2001

- Young filed this item under the category
"Human Exposure to Phenoxy Herbicides and TCDD";
report no: EPA 560/6-81-006, contract no: 68-01-3859

Page 722 of 865

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V\A-VcK', M Spontaneous Abortion and Exposure during
Pregnancy to the Herbicide 2,4,5-T

American Public Health Association
Washington, DC

Prepared for
Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, DC

Feb 81

U.S.

of Commerce
Technical Information Service

PB81-165789

._

�EPA 560/6-81-006

EPIDEMIOLOGY STUDIES
SPONTANEOUS ABORTION AND EXPOSURE
DURING PREGNANCY TO THE HERBICIDE 2,4,5-T

FEBRUARY 1981
FINAL REPORT

U.S. E N V I R O N M E N T A L PROTECTION AGENCY
OFFICE OF PESTICIDES AND
TOXIC SUBSTANCES
WASHINGTON, D.C.

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NATIONAL TECHNICAL
INFORMATION SERVICE
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�TECHNIC,'.1 .REPORT DATA
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3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.
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4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE

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5. REPORT OATE
February 1981
Spontaneous Abortion and Exposure During Pregnancy to the Herbicide 2,4,5-T
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
• !•
• • . • . * "
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT N(

7. AUTMOR(S)
Maureen Hatch * and Jennie Kline *

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10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.

9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
American Public Health Association
101515th Street, NW
*&lt;
Washington. DC 20005

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12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
Office of Toxic Substances

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Washington, DC 20460

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' ll.CONTriACT/GRANT NO.

68-01-3859

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US. Environmental Protection Agency
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13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERS'
Final Report
14. SPONSORING uGENCY CODE

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IS. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

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Columbia University

16. ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to identify locations in the United States where community exposure to ihe
phenoxy herbicide 2,4,5-T-can be examined in relation to the risk of spontaneous'abortion, and other
adverse pregnancy outcomes. Prior ecologic studies evaluating the reproductive consequences of exposure
to 2,4^-T have produced equivocal results. la tliis report, \ve consider what research strategies and what
populations may be used to generate evidence that can be more readily interpreted.
*• Issues relating to the nature of the exposure (e.g.,'seasonal use, unknown.dose level and fate in the
environment) and to ascertainment c'f spontaneous .abortions- (e.g., memory bias, variability in medical
service use) are discussed. Two candidate study areas are investigated. Research approaches suitable to each
isite -are set out and assessed for .their potential to provide a powerful, valid test of the relationslvip of
2;4,5-T use to spontaneous abortion.
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17.
1.

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KEY WOODS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS

2,4,5-T
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Community Exposure
. Spontaneous Abortion
Reproductive Outcomes
.
Study Design
Statistical Power
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b.lOENTIFIERS/OPEN E N D E D TEHMS

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%

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COSATI Field/Croup

Epidemiologic Study •
• Community Study
Spontaneous Abortion
Reproductive Outcomes
Environmental Research Strategies
Phenoxy Herbicides

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IS. S E C U R I T Y CLASS (IhitHtporll

Unlimited
previous COITION i»

21. NO. &lt;Jf- PAGES

30. S E C U R I T Y CLASS (Thupat*/

18. D I S T R I B U T I O N i T A T f c M i N T

F*tM 2220.1 (R«¥. 4*77)

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22. PRICE

�EPA 560/6-81-006
FEBRUARY 1981

SPONTANEOUS ABORTION AND EXPOSURE
DURING PREGNANCY TO THE HERBICIDE 2,4,5-T

by

Maureen Hatch'
Jennie Kline 1
1.

Columbia University

Contract No. 68-01-3859

Project Officer
Jane E, Ke'llcr
Health and Environmental Review D i v i s i o n
Office of Pesticides and Toxic Substances
Washington, D.C. 20460

U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20460

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DISCLAIMER
This project has b&lt;»en funded with Federal funds from the
Environmental Protection Agency under contract number
68"01-3859 The content of this publication does not
necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S.
Environm' ot.al Pcotectir-u Agency, nor does mention of trade
names, commercial products, or organizations imply
endorseneut by the U.S. Government.

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ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study was to identify locations in the United
States where community exposure to the phenoxy herbicide 2,4,5 Trichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4,5T) c-mld be examined in relation to the
risk of spontaneous abortion and other adverse pregnancy outcomes. Prior
ecologic studies evaluating the reproductive consequences of exposure to
2,4,5T have produced equivocal results.

In this report, we consider

what research strategies and what populations may be used to generate
evidence that can be more readily interpreted.
Issues relating to the nature of the exposure (e.g., seasonal use,
unknown dose level and fate in the environment) and to ascertainment of
spontaneous abortions (e.g., memory bias, variability in medical service
use) are discussed.

Two candidate study areas are investigated.

Research approaches suitable to each site are set out and assessed for
their potential to provide a powerful, valid test of the relationship of
«
2,4,5T use to spontaneous abortion.

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ACKNOVLEDGEMENTS

We would like to thank:
...Wendy Chavkin for her help with the field study;

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...Zena Stein, Mervyn Susser, and the faculty of the Sergievsky
Center for thoughtful discussion of the issues;
...The physicians, hospital and health department personnel
at the sites investigated, and representatives of federal,
state and private agricultural and timber concerns for their
cooperation and participation;
...The American Public Health Association for its assistance
and support;
...Carol Giles and Sarah Starkman for help in preparing
the manuscript.

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Table of Contents

I.

Background

It.

Objectives

III.

Evaluatioa of Uses of 2,4,5T: Potential for Human Exposure

IV.

Selection of Sites for Review

V.

DataCathering Procedures

VI.

Site Visit 1: Pacific Northwest

VII.

Site Visit 2: Arkansas

VIII.

i
IX.

Summary and Final Recommendations
.
Appendix

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I.

Background

!

In February 1979, the Environmental Protection Agency issued the
results of an investigation into the relation of aerial applications of
the herbicide 2,4,5-Trichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4,5-T) it. a forested
area of Oregon and spontaneous abortion in populations residing nearby
(U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1979). In the report, it was
concluded that exposure to 2,4,5-T in connection with forest management
increased the risk of spontaneous abortions in the population exposed.
This conclusion was based on:
(1) A comparison of spontaneous abortion ratios (abortions:
livebirths) in the study area compared with ratios in
two nonforested areas of Oregon.
(2) A comparison of the frequency of abortions occurring
in months relating to herbicide use with that occurring
in months unassociated with herbicide use.
\
(3) A correlation of monthly amounts of herbicide applied
and monthly spontaneous aoortion ratios.
The report received considerable attention, partly because human
evidence on this question is scant and partly because the results appeared to concur with evidence from animal studies showing an increased
rate of fetal loss in association with exposure to 2,4,5-T and to its
contaminant 2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodiben5p-p-dloxin (TCDD). Nevertheless,
the conclusions may have been unwarranted.
Unfortunately, the Oregon study had been conducted under considerable time pressure in order to serve as a guide for regulatory action
in the next spraying season; subsequent evaluation of the data and the
analysis have pointed up several serious limitations.
The following aspects are of primary importance in evaluating this
study:
1.

Herbicide application data had been obtained for only a
portion (25%) of the study area and the assumption was
made that the pattern of use (in terms of amounts and
timing) would be "similar" in the rest of the study area.

2.

Ascertainment of spontaneous abortions was confined to
abortions noted in hospital records. Since in this region,
most care is sought through private physicians, the use of
hospital records will seriously underestimate the
number of abortions.

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3.

The ecological nature of the study, that is, the
absence of data to confirm that couples had indeed
been at their usual residence during pregnancies, would
prohibit, in any case, strong conclusions regarding the
relationships of 2,4,5T exposure to abortion. At
best, the results could only be taken to suggest a
relationship which would need to be confirmed in a study
carried out at the individual level.

Not only were there significant limits to what could be learned
from this study about the risk to human reproduction in connection with
the use of 2,4,5T in forest management, but clearly nothing could be
inferred about possible risks associated with other types of uses of
2,4,51, such as applications to rangelands, rice, or orchards.
Accordingly, this feasibility study was undertaken to determine
whether and how the relation of 2,4,5-T to human reproduction could be
examined at the individual level of analysis.
II. Objectives of the Study
The objectives of the feasibility study were:
1.

To identify areas with: (a) a potentially high level of
exposure to 2,4,5T; (b) available documentation of herbicide
use; -md (c) an exposed population of sufficient size to
provide a sample of pregnancies large enough for studying
the relation of 2,4,5T to the risk of spontaneous abortion.

2.

To outline preliminary study designs for conducting research
on this relationship in the location(s) so identified.

It was understood that the work would entail both a review of the
original study area (Alsea, Oregon) as a site for an expanded investigation, as well as assessment of other locations which might serve as
alternative or concurrent sites for testing the hypothesis that exposure
to 2,4,5T under typical conditions of use is associated with an increased risk of spontaneous abortion and other adverse reproductive
events. Thus, the first task was to assess the potential for exposure
associated with different types of use of this phenoxy herbicide in
different areas of the country.
III. Evaluation of_Uses of2,4,5T;Potential for Human Exposure
The herbicide 2,4,5T and related phenoxies are defoliants used in
brush and weed control. The principal applications are on: forests;
crops, such as rice, wheat and fruits; brush along roadsides and power
line right-of-way; private pasturelands and gardens; and rangelands. Of
the various types of use rice and timber cultivation seem to hold the
greatest promise for studying the possible effects of 2,4,5-T on the
reproductive health of exposed populations. The limitations associated
with the other uses are summarized below.

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A.

Wheat Crops '

The phenoxy chiefly used is 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D)
which is not contaminated with dioxin. The application rate, though
similar to the rate associated with other agricultural uses, is half
that associated with forest use (0.5-1.5 pounds (Ibs) per acre versus
2-3 Ibs per acre); since wheat growing areas are sparsely settled and
wheat fanning is highly mechanized, the size of the population likely to
be exposed is very small; it is not certain that records pertaining to
herbicide applications on wheat are routinely kept.
B. Fruit Orchards
2,4,5-T has not been used often on fruit, although 2-2,4,5tricblorophenoxy propionic acid (2,4,5-TP) (Silvex) is used to some
extent; since the herbicide is applied using air blast sprayers mounted
on trucks, it may be less likely to drift onto nearby settlements than
when applied aerially; farm workers are typically migrants and likely to
be difficult to trace.
C. Roadside and Right-of-Ways
This use of herbicides is extensive, and the application rate is
high (4-10 Ibs per acre); however, depending upon the target vegetation,
compounds other than 2,4,5-T may be used. Applications are tractormanaged, and considered to have a limited potential for drift. Roadside
applications are carried out by county, state, corporate and federal
crews, and the existence and availability of records vary greatly depending on the site.
D. Raageland
The average application rate on range is from 0.5-2 Ibs per acre,
and in. some states is reputed to be as high as 10 Ibs per acre. By
definition, rangeland is very sparsely settled; thus it is unlikely that
large numbers of people are exposed.
E. Pa.sturel.and and Home and Garden Uses
It has been argued that applications of this kind may carry the
highest exposure. There are, however, no records of such applications
and it seems unlikely that accurate data regarding the timing and use of
herbicides in the past could be obtained from personal interview. The
uses which seem feasible to explore and likely to yield relevant c!ata
are the aerial applications of 2,4,5-T in connection with timber production and rice cultivation. Brief descriptions of the conditions and
function of the herbicide use in each of these settings, and a summary
table comparing the potential for human exposure associated with each
use follow.

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F. Conditions of Use on Timber
When forests are "managed" with the aim of commercial timber production, herbicide use is common. The purpose is to control the growth
of broadleaf plants, or hardwood, which compete with the conifers for
light and moisture. The need for herbicides increases as a function of
precipitation since rainfall encourages the growth of these competing
species. In a managed forest, the acreage is subdivide^ into cutting
units, each of which is treated with herbicide? perhaps 2-3 times in the
life cycle of the species: once for site preparation (The cutting unit
is cleared and the site sprayed to rid it of all growth prior to planting); again 35 years later for "conifer release" (the site is sprayed to
cut back the faster-growing young alder); and perhaps again the following year if "release" was not totally successful. The cutting unit —
which may range in size from 10-«1,000 acres — is not treated again
until the stand has attained maturity and been harvested and the land is
ready for replanting. Both federal and corporate owners report that
they aim to treat 2-4% of their total acreage in any one year. The time
of treatment depends upon weather conditions at the cutting unit but it
typically takes place in the late spring. The average application rate
is 2-4 Ibs of active ingredient per acre, and the herbicide is sprayed
on by helicopter.
G. Conditions of Use on Rice
In rice cultivation, 2,4,5-T is used to control weeds, particularly
indigo, whose presence in the harvested crop reduces its commercial
value by affecting the appearance of the product. 2,4,5-T is typically
applied annually, at an average rate of 1-1.5 Ibs per acre. (2,4,5-T
amine is used rather than the 2,4,5-T ester used in brush control.)
Planting takes place in late April and the rice is grown under
irrigation. Herbicide is applied before the rice head is formed. The
herbicide is sprayed from a fixed-wing aircraft, usually 3-10 feet from
the ground. At the proper time in internodal growth, the paddies are
drained, 2,4,5-T laid down, and then the areas are flooded once again
until harvesting in September and October.
There are short-grain, medium-grain and long-grain varieties of
rice; each nodes at a different rate. Thus, treatment time is a function of rice variety. Owners typically plant a mixture of rice varieties and hence, may treat their acreage at different times during the
season. The average size of a treatment area is 120-150 acres. Most
applications occur in late June or early July, but the range extends
from mid-May through mid-August.
For the sake of the soil, rice is alternated with another crop,
usually soybean, once or twice in a three-year period. Soybeans are
broadleaf plants and hence 2,4,5-T is not used on this crop. Because
these sensitive crops are frequently contiguous to rice fields, appli-

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cators do attempt to minimize drift.

»

It is important to note that other pesticides are used in combination with 2,4,5-T in caring for rice crops; thus, populations living
near rice fields may be exposed to several chemicals.
H. Comparison of Rice and Timber Uses in Respect to Factors Affecting
Potential for Hunan Exposure
1

• Mode of Application

In the forest, the applications are made by helicopter at a considerable distance from the ground; in the rice paddies the applications are
made by low-flying fixed-wing aircraft. One might expect that there
would be more drift in connection with the timber applications, but that
smaller amounts of herbicide would reaching the ground.

The mountainous terrain of forests, which makes control of the
spray nozzles difficult, may provide a greater potential for exposure as
a result of drift than the flat rice paddies.
3. Population Density

•

Population is likely to be smaller and less evenly distributed in
mountainous areas than in flat agricultural areas (Census and topographical map data show this to be true.)
4. Sunlight
Oioxin breaks down readily only in the presence of sunlight; there
is less exposure to sunlight under a forest canopy than in an agricultural setting.
5.

Intensity of Exposure

t

The application rate on rice is half that of timber 1 Ib per acre
on average compared with 2 Ibs per acre.
6. Frequency of Treatment
Rice paddies are treated annually while individual cutting units
within a forest are treated only 2-3 times over several decades.
7. Proportion of the Population Potentially Exposed
Given that rice is typically alternated with another crop, we
estimate that from 50-60% of the population residing in rice farming
areas is likely to be exposed in any year. In the forests only 2-4% of
the total acreage is treated in any year, and thus, only a small portion
of the population is likely to be exposed each year.

�-118. Availability of Records
~
ii
Regulation of 2,4,5-T and other phenoxy herbicides has largly been
directed at the protection of susceptible non-target crops. For this
reason, agricultural uses have traditionally been much more closely
regulated than forest uses, and public records of such applications are
fairly complete. There has been far less public regulation of herbicide
applications in timbered areas, where damage from drift onto sensitive
crops is less likely. Maintenance of application records has been left
largely up to the individual owners or commercial applicators, and hence
the quality and availability of documented herbicide use in this sector
varies.
I.

SUMMARY

The uses of 2,4,5-T in rice and timber cultivation represent distinctly different types of exposure to this chemical. The use of the
herbicide on rice may produce a chronic, low-level exposure. Since farm
populations terd to be stable, many individuals living in rice-growing
areas may have had lifetime exposure to accumulating concentrations of
2,4,5-T as well as other pesticides with unknown reproduction risks to
human. Of special interest is the fact that there is a continuing use
of 2,4,5-T presenting the possibility of either a cross-sectional or
prospective study. Although the level of exposure in agricultural areas
is probably lower than in timbered areas, the population at risk is
larger.
In contrast, herbicide use on forests may produce sporadic and
more intense exposures, which occur perhaps 2-4 times in the life of any
individual. Although conditions in forests may lead to larger doses of
exposure than in the rice area, the population at risk is smaller. In
contrast to the residents around rice fields, herbicide-use on timber
has been suspended and its effects can only be studied retrospectively.
IV. Selection of Sites for Review
Queries to individuals knowledgeable about herbicide use on timber
and rice identified the following areas of heavy use:
1)

Timber^ The Pacific Northwest, specifically the coastal
corridor and especially Oregon; The Great Lakes; the
South Central and Gulf Coast regions.

2)

Rice; Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arkansas, and
California.

In the timbeelands, even though-application practices are similar
from place to place, climate and topography vary so that 2,4,5-T use is
heaviest in the Pacific Northwest, with the South ranking next and the
Great Lakes region following.

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Of the heavy rice-growing states, Arkansas proved to be the heaviest user of 2,4,5-T. Only MCPA is used in California and Texas because
of the problem of drift onto non-target vegetation. 2,4,5-T is used in
Louisiana and Mississippi, but less acreage is planted in rice in these
states than in Arkansas. In Arkansas 2,4,5-T has also been used in a
large expanse of timberlands for more than 20 years.
Thus the Pacific Northwest, both Oregon and Washington and Arkansas
were selected for site visits.
V. Data-Gathering Procedures
A. Basic Approach
,
In Table 1, we outline the types of data we attempted to obtain for
each site visited.

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TABLE 1
2,4,5-T FEASIBILITY STUDY:
Da^a Gathering Objectives
EXPOSURE

EXPOSED POPULATION

REPRODUCTIVE OUTCOME

UNEXPOSED

Areas of high use of
Size and distribution of
population in sxoosed
2,4,5-T: proportion of use
for forest, crops, roadside, area.
range, right-of-ways.

Estimate of medically
unattended reproductive
events.

Patterns of ownership by
areas and type of use.

Size and fertility of
population of reproductive age.

Where and when in pregnancy
medical attention is sought;
what information is recorded
regarding the event.

Samples of existing data on
2,4,5-T applications, by
type of owner: dates:
locations; amounts;
composition.

Estimates of the number
of pregnancies at risk of
exposure per year.

What information is recorded
regarding the patient (i.e.,
data on potentially confounding variables). SEE APPENDED
INTERVIEW FORMS FOR FURTHER
DETAIL.

Accessibility of exposure
records.

Information relating to
demographic and control
variables:
race
mother's education
urban/rural residence
% illegitimate births
% births to women 19
% births to women 35

Accessibility of records.

Concomitant exposures:
— fungicides
-- insecticides
— other chemicals

Medical care patterns.

Fate in the environment:
possibility of continuing
exposure.

Deferred, except for decision
about whether to draw the
unexposed sample from the
same geographic areas as the '
exposed sample.

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The organisation of the table reflects the basic approach. In each
area we attempted first to find where there had been heavy use of
2,4,5-T, or 2,4,5-T and 2,4,-D in combination; to identify the major
users; and to evaluate the type and accessibility of records of herbicide applications.
Having determined where herbicide use had been heaviest, we then
gathered information about the population potentially exposed. Our
principal objective here was to establish whether Che residents in or
near areas of herbicide applications provided sufficient numbers of
reproductive events to permit examination of the research question. We
also had to estimate the proportion of reproductive events for which
there might be no official records. In addition to these quantitative
data, we also attempted to construct a social and health profile of the
local population, particularly those of reproductive age. Finally, we
investigated medical servic. use, medical practices, and the nature and
availability of medical records on reproductive outcomes. The questionnaires we developed for physicians and hospitals, inquiring about their
obstetric and recordkeepinp practices, are apended. These data will be
discussed below in connection with the site visits.
VI-

Site Visit 1: Pacific Northwest

In the Pacific Northwest our aim was to reevaluate the original
Alsea area as a site for further study and to assess the research potential of other locations in Oregon and Washington.
A. Exposure Data
1. Patterns of 2,4,5-T Use in Northwest Timberlands; Use of 2,4,5-T in
the Northwest occurs almost entirely west of the Cascade Mountain Ridge,
in the Coastal Range. This is chiefly a reflection of precipitation
patterns. As rainfall increases, so does the growth of the broadleaf
trees like the alder, which compete with conifers for sunlight and
moisture. Average annual rainfall is 12 inches east of the Cascades, 35
inches just west of the ridge, and 80 inches along the coast. The U.S.
Forest Service estimates that 80% or more of all phenoxy use in Oregon
and Washington occurs from Gray's Harbor County in Washington south
along the coast. North of Gray's Harbor there is more hemlock than Douglas
fit, and hemlock has an easier time penetrating broadleaf trees.
2. gpecies Produced: Douglas fir.
3. Application Rate: An average of 2 Ibs of active ingredient per
acre.

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4. Size of Treatment Unit; The average cutting unit in the Oregon
nationa* forests is about 40 acres. This may mean that depending upon
where one lives, one may be exposed to treatment at multiple sites.
5- Topography; The steep hills and narrow valleys characteristic of
the Coastal Range are thought to promote herbicide exposure through a
funneling effect. There is also a network of steams running through the
mountains which despite buffer strips becomes contaminated with herbicide.
6. Population Density; Since the rugged terrain restricts accessibility, population tends to cluster in the narrow valley bottoms.
However, particularly in the Siuslaw, the slopes are punctuated with
valleys and there is more distribution of population through the forest
than might occur if the drainage were very long and there were fewer
valleys.
7. Land Ownership; Ownership ot the timberlands along the coast and
east to the Cascades is of three types:
(1) Federal (owned either by
the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service or the Department of
Interior Bureau of Land Management); (2) State; and (3) corporate.
Following is a Forest Service map of the area, showing county
boundaries and locations of national forests. In counties like Coos,
Clatsop and Tillamook, and parts of Lincoln, the forests are owned by
corporations or the state. Gray's Harbor, Pacific, and Lewis counties
in Washington, considered to contain extremely productive timberlands,
are largely the domain of corporate holders. In the strip just to the
east, between the coast and the Cascades, much of the timbered areas
belongs to the Bureau of Land Management and to smaller private holders.
Both Federal agencies consider themselves minor users of phenoxies
compared to the state and corporate owners because of the Federal governraent's more cautious policy regarding the use of chemicals.
8. Availability of Records, by Type of Owner
a

* Federal: Federal agencies expressed an interest and a willingness
to cooperate. Samples of the forms used to document herbicide applications were obtained. These records are said to be kept on file for a
minimum of five years.
b- Oregon State: While state officials view themselves as closely
allied to the private sector, they are willing to cooperate in "responsible" research. Records are said to be accessible and are maintained
for a minimum of three years. Sample forms were obtained.
c. Washington State: This agency reported that, with the exception of
the last few years, neither locations, amounts nor formulations of
herbicide applications are accurately reported in their records.
d. Corporate Owners: The Washington State Forest Association represents

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all of the commercial users. In order to gain access to the data on
herbicide applications of the corporations represented by the Association it will be necessary to obtain approval of the proposed research
from the Association.
9. Summary
A. Pacific Northwest as a Site for Study
In regard to exposure, the following points oust be addressed in considering the Pacific Northwest as a site for study:
a. the low frequency of exposure;
b. seasonality of applications; and
c. documentation of herbicide use.
a. Exposure Frequency; The potential for human exposure associated
with forest use of 2,4,5-T may be high, but because the portion of
forested land treated in any year is small, it will be difficult to
develop the sample size of exposed pregnancies sufficient to give a
study reasonable statistical power.
b. Seasonality; The use of 2,4,5-T on forests occurs in the spring,
and sometimes in the summer. Therefore, exposure as defined by application practices is seasonal. It is not clear whether the frequency of
spontaneous abortion varies with season, since this question has been
examined oaly on occasion and never in rural areas of the United States.
McDonald (1971) in Canada found a slight, but nonsignificant, increase
in the loss of pregnancies conceived in March-June which she related to
winter-spring infectious. Kelson et al. (1971), of the Center for
Disease Control, reported no season::! pattern in a three-year series of
aborted fetuses. A study of seasonality in relation to reported fetal
loss in New York City, which included spontaneous abortions less than 20
weeks gestation, observed a trough for August-November conceptions and a
peak among January-April conceptions (N.Y.C. Dept. of Health, 1971).
These variations were slight and were confined to early losses and to
the Puerto Rican and non-white. In our hospital-based study in New York
City, we h-ave not detected a seasonal trend in the frequency of spontaneous abortion. Since these results were all obtained in urban areas,
it is possible that a seasonal trend in abortion exists in rural areas.
Thus it is prudent to control for season (month) of conception in any
design to investigate the relation of herbicide exposure to abortion.
Cl

Do cumentat ion; The availability and accessibility of data on herb
icide applications present a potential problem, especially in the state
of Washington.

�-17-

B. Population at Rx-jk of Exposure
Vital statistics, population data and discussions with state and
county health officials formed the basis for understanding the general
health and habits of the population which might be exposed to spraying,
as well as their fertility rate and patterns of medical service use.
The demographic and spray data were used to estimate the number of
pregnancies per year at risk of exposure.
To supplement visual impressions, U.S. Geological Survey dwelling
maps were obtained to determine the distribution of population throughout the forested areas.
Anecdotal evidence was gathered regarding the attitudes of local
residents toward herbicide use and toward research on its relationship
to health effects.
The following issues bear on the suitability of the Pacific Northwest coastal region for research on the reproductive effects.of herbicide use:
1. the lifestyle of residents;
2. possible reporting bias; and
3. potential sample size.
*• Ei fgstyle: One criticism of EPA's Alsea study was that the lifestyle of the population living in the forested areas of the Pacific
Northwest particularly that of recent and younger residents, might have
operated to confound the analysis. It was claimed that this alternative
lifestyle involved drugs, diet and habits of hygiene that themselves
were risk factors for spontaneous abortion. In another vein, local
informants have noted that among this group there is a trend to alternative health care that might make it difficult to document pregnancy
outcome.
On the first point, it was not possible to develop hard information. Impressionistic evidence, however, suggests that under the
rubric "alternative" fall a variety of lifestyles which may, or may not,
incorporate drug use or extreme diets which, in turn, may or may not
increase the risk of spontaneous abortion. To our knowledge, organic or
macrobiotic diets have not been examined in relation to pregnancy outcome. In our study in New York City, heroin use, but not occasional
marijuana use, was associated with spontaneous abortion.
If one considers the frequency of illegitimate births or month of
firat prenatal visit as indirect measures of lifestyle, then statistics
for counties along the coastal corridor suggest there is considerable
variation. In one county for instance, 67% of women have s«Jc a pre-

�-18-

natal visit by the second trimester of pregnancy and only 6% of births
are illegitimate. The comparable figures for another county located are
37% and 17%.
Whether and how an alternative lifestyle affects the risk of spontaneous abortions may be a matter for speculation; however, it is unlikely that lifestyle varies with exposure. If a sample is drawn solely
from the forest area, it is reasonable to expect that the unknown effects
of "lifestyle" will be similar among exposed and unexposed residents.
2. Reporting Bias; In Oregon particularly, but also in Washington and
Northern California, herbicide use in forest management is a major local
issue pitting those with economic ties to the timber industry against
environmentalists. The clash of attitudes gets considerable coverage in
the local media, and groups have formed to promote the opposing
positions' e.g., Women for Timber and Citizens Against Active Sprays.
Although we were not able to examine the question of bias systematically, clearly attitudes have been formed regarding the health effects
of herbicides, giving grounds for concern about the potential for biased
reporting. If overreporting were the only possibility, one could confront the problem by requiring validation of all pregnancies reported.
Local health officials currently believe, however, that health problems
may be underreported because local residents fear the loss of their
economic base. The risk of this bias, which is far more difficult to
assess since one cannot check records on pregnancies that are not re-•
ported, argues against collecting reproductive information by interview.
3. Potential Sample Size; In designing a study, we would require
a sample of sufficient size to have at least an 80% chance of detecting
an increase in risk of predetermined size. All other things being
equal, as sample size decreases, so does the statistical power to detect
an effect, if it is indeed present. The sample size for a study of
2,4,5-T exposure and reproductive outcome in the Pacific Northwest is
likely to be small for several reasons:
a. The forested areas are sparsely settled, and there is little point
to including more populous urban centers in the sample since they are
not at risk of exposure and hence cannot be informative as to the presence or absence of effects.
b. Only a proportion of the population is susceptible to the effect
under study; that is, only the population of reproductive age.
c. Since .only a small percentage of total forest area is treated with
herbicides in any one year, only a correspondingly small proportion of
the population can be exposed in any year. Estimates of sample size
have been developed below as part of the preliminary study design.

�•19-

C. Reproductive Outcome Data
Physician records iu two sample counties (counties A and B) in
Oregon were reviewed in order to assess their utility either as a source
for ascertaining pregnancies or validating reports of pregnancy obtained
through interview. The attempt was made to interview virtually all
physicians who were, or had been, treating obstetric patients in the
sample counties, rather than visiting a portion of the physicians in a
larger number of counties. This approach seemed particularly useful
since the.strong possibility of reporting bias in the population suggested that a review of medical records, rather than personal interviews, was likely to comprise the data source.
1. Data-Collection; Appendix 1 contains the interview schedules which
were administered to physicians and to hospital personnel. In each
office we asked to review a random sample of charts to note the scope
and legibility of information included and to determine whether shortcuts existed to locating pregnancies within the chart. The central
questions we sought to answer were:
a.

What proportion of local obstetric care does tiie office deliver?
This information helped to weight the data from each office when
we attempted to describe the characteristics of the entire
county.

b.

What number of deliveries and of spontaneous abortions are treated
by this facility each year?
This information was useful in estimating the potential sample
size.

c.

How soon after their last menstrual period are women usually seen
for diagnosis of pregnancy?
This information helped us gauge how many early spontaneous
abortions might be missed in a medical record review.

d.

How often, if ever, are spontaneous abortions documented in the
medical records?
In particular, we sought to determine whether a telephone report
of a miscarriage, in the absence of an office visit, would be
recorded.

e.

What information is routinely obtained regarding the characteristics
of the couple who have experienced a spontaneous abortion?
Information on this question provides knowledge of whether
records could supply the necessary data on potentially confounding variables.

f.

What proportion of women experiencing spontaneous abortions are
hospitalized?

�-20-

g.

Lastly, would the physician agree to a record search were a new
study to be undertaken?

Following are background information and a summary of findings from the
medical records survey.
County A

County B

Long, narrow coastal county.
Population = 31,000

Smaller but more populous than
county A. Population = 68,000

Economy: depends on tourism,
tio.ber, fishing.

Economy: Somewhat higher
socioeconomic status than county
A; economy is university and
industry related.

Medical facilities: Three small
hospitals of 40-50 beds each.
Obstetric patients are treated
by general practitioners; almost
all obstetric admissions to one
hospital are welfare patients.

Medical facilities: One large
hospital of 160 beds. About 15
physicians have seen obstetric
patients at some time over the last
10 years. Included here are nine
obstetricians and six general
practitioners.

In 1978, there were 471 births
(15.1/1000); 270 (60%) of these
took place within the county. Of
the 60%, 9% occurred out-of-hospital.
In other words, some 50% of births
were not attended by doctors from
County A. It is believed that most
of the obstetric cases going out of
county A deliver in an adjacent county.
Those delivering in-county tend to be
less affluent; the ilJegitmacy rate
among these women is 27%.

In 1978, there were 804 births
(11.7/1000) to county residents,
yet almost 1200 births occurred
within the county, presumably
because the obstetricians provide
care to women from other counties.
About 3% of births occur out-ofhospital; illegitimacy rate is 6%.

�-21-

2. Conclusion: From our tally of the questionnaire data, we draw the
following tentative conclusions:
a.

The great majority of physician records would be open to us if we
were to undertake a study.

b.

At least 90%, probably close to 100%, of livebirths could be
ascertained or validated from these records since even those
delivering out-of-hospital usually have at least one prenatal
visit.

c.

The major loss of information on reproductive events, should
information be confined to these records, would be:
1.

Very early, recognized but unreported spontaneous abortions,
believed by physicians to be a very small proportion of all
spontaneous abortions.

2.

Early spontaneous abortions, reported but not preceded by a
prenatal visit: It appears from the data that as many as 50%
of spontaneous abortions prior to 12 weeks gestation are
either not recorded in the medical record or are recorded, but
with little data.

d.

It appears that data on potentially confounding variables (i.e.,
maternal characteristics) will be reasonably complete in these
records from about 1970 on for term pregnancies, but incomplete
for pregnancies ending in spontaneous abortion.

e.

A survey of all pregnancies would be possible from these charts,
with the limitations mentioned above, but would require a review
of the entire chart for every woman in order to identify all
spontaneous abortions. Alhough many uf the records have a
separate obstetric page, it may not contain information on
spontaneous abortions, but only data on pregnancies going to
term.

f.

Physician records should extend data on spontaneous abortion
considerably beyond that obtained through hospital records.

D.

Development of a Study Design in the Northwest Forests

The development of a research design to examine the relation of an
environmental factor like 2,4,5-T to reproductive outcome is contingent
both on the hypotheses to be tested and the special characteristics of
the population to be studied. We consider below: (1) tne previous
literature regarding the relation of 2,4,5-T to reproductive outcome and
the hypotheses generated by this work; and (2) special characteristics
relating to exposure and data collection in the Pacific Northwest.
Based on these considerations, we .then set out the conclusions we have

�-22-

rcached regarding study design for this location, and discuss the
strengths and limitations of this approach.
1. Review of Literature and Hypotheses
a. Route of Exposure to the Parent; Exposure via ingestion is the only
route which has been examined in laboratory studies of 2,4,5-T and/or
TCDD. Exposure via inhalation and skin absorption — the routes of
exposure one would associate with herbicide applications —has not been
studied in animals, so it is not known whether response varies with the
route of exposure.
Whether and to what extent 2,4,5-T remains in the environment following
spray applications is difficult to gauge. There may be continued exposure via ingestion of contaminated food or water; however, this is
difficult to determine since residue data are sporadic, conflicting and
subject to reporting bias. In the absence of data on the presence of
2,4,5-T in the water and food, it will be necessary to define exposure
as residential proximity to aerial application sites and to infer the
route and timing of exposure from spray data.
b. Route and Timing of Exposure to the Conceptus: We reviewed laboratory and epidemiologic evidence relating either TCDD or 2,4,5-T to
reproduction in order to determine whether the route to the conceptus is
likely to be through the female parent, the male parent, or both.
A paternal influence has been suggested by the allegations of
Vietnam veterans exposed to Agent Orange, and by unpublished data which
compared the occurrence of birth defects among offspring born to exposed
Vietnamese fathers and unexposed mothers with that among offspring of
couples where both parents were unexposed to herbicides (Tung et al,
1979). Although the data are very suggestive, a systematic investigation has not been carried out, and firm conclusions can not be drawn.
As yet, there is no published report in which exposure of male animals
to 2,4,5-T has been examined in relation to reproductive outcome. A
"three-generation rat study does not permit evaluation of a paternal
effect separate from maternal effects (Murray et al, 1978).
However, the question of male influence has been examined in relation to TCDD. Unlike the study of 2,4,5-T, a three-generation study of
TCDD included a cross-mating experiment, where the effects of both
maternal and paternal exposure were assessed in rats (Smith et al,
1979). Following exposure of female rats, nonsignificant trend to
fever implantations and a significant increase in resorptions were
observed; exposure of the male was not associated with infertility or
pre- or post implantation loss. Negative results have also been reported for exposure of the male on the dominant lethal test in the mouse
and in the rat; however, this test is insensitive to all but strong
mutageus.

�-23-

At this time, it is not possible to rule out the possibility of an
effect operating through the father as well as through the mother. This
suggests that exposure prior to conception must be considered as well
as exposure during pregnancy. When a paternal influence is
hypothesized, the relevant period for exposure in studies of reproductive effects is
sometimes defined as the approximately three mouths it takes for sperm
to fully regenerate.
In regard to the female, the animal studies establish the presence
of effects in association with exposure during pregnancy but do not allow
one to determine whether preconception maternal exposure of the female,
separate from exposure during gestation, has adverse reproductive
effects.
There is no information upon which to judge at what time during pregnancy
this agent might operate. However, since spontaneous abortion, the
major outcome of interest, is by definition fetal death occurring before
28 weeks gestation, we have considered exposures only up to week 24 of
gestation following the last menstrual period.
c. Sumnu'ry; In the absence of strong evidence that a reproductive
effect of 2,4,5-T is confined to one or the other parent, or a
particular time period, we propose to examine whether exposure *~o
2,4,5-T (defined by proximity to aerial applicatons) occurring to either
parent from six months prior to conception until 24 weeks after the last
menstrual period (LMP) is associated with spontaneous abortion. As we
discuss below, our definition of exposure prohibits our distinguishing
between maternal and paternal preconception exposure in the proposed
Study. We aim, however, to evaluate the effects of preconception «:nd
post conception exposure separately.
2. Conditions Affecting Study Design Decisions: Based on the nature of
the 2,4,5-T use under consideration and of the candidate study area,
certain factors emerge which influence the design of the study. These
factors have been described in the preceding text.
Following is a table which sets out the factors or problems to be
dealt with, and the corresponding decision about study design which was
made to cope wiJi each condition This table is followed by:
a. a statement of the hypothesis to be tested in such a study;
b. a discussion of the study design options;
c. estimates of the sample size potentially available for study and
a description of the analysis;
d. a discussion of tlie statistical power of the analysis; and
e. Conclusion.

�-24-

Table- 2
Conditions Affecting Design Decisions for 2,4,5-T Study in
Pacific Northwest Forests
Condition
1. Suspended use of herbicide2. Possibility of reporting bias
3. Different period at risk of
exposure for spontaneous abortions and livebirtbs
A.

Design Decision
T-Retrospective study
Indirect measure of exposure
Record review rather than interview
as source of data
. Control length of gestation to
' equalize period at risk
Case-control rather than cohort
design

Possible confounding effects of,,
lifestyle

5. Low prevalence of exposure-

Restrict analysis to forest
-} population

6. lack of data on potentially,
confounding variables
7, Seasonality of exposure (andpossibly of outcome)

Control for time of conception
Extend study area down coastal
I corridor

"8. Small sample residing in forest——&gt;&gt; Maximize time period of study
2^ Increase size of comparison
population

�-25-

a. Hypothesis to be Tested: The hypothesis which could be tested in
the Pacific Northwest timberlands is whether acute exposure to 2,4,5-T,
either prior to conception or during pregnancy, is associated with
spontaneous abortion. Although it is theoretically possible for the
same agent to have an effect at both periods, it is more likely that an
effect will be specific to one or the other time in i. elation to conception and hence it is desirable to examine the questions separately.
In addition to spontaneous abortion, other outcomes of pregnancy
such as birthweight and birth defects could be studied in relation to
2,4,5-T exposure.
b. Discussion of Study Design Options
1. Retrospective Data Collection: The use of 2,4,5-T in forest management has been suspended since after the 1978 spraying season. Therefore, any study of reproductive effects in timberlands must be retrospective, attempting to relate history of reproductive events to history
of exposure. E &lt;en if reliable and noninvasive biochemical measures of
2,4,5-T existed, the retrospective design obliges use of an indirect
measure of exposure. The available definition of exposure — residential proximity to aerial application sites — serves as an indicator
that the potential for exposure existed: clearly absorbed dose could
vary widely in a population so defined as "exposed." The possibility of
misclassifying exposed and unexposed individuals when using this operational measure of exposure should be borne in mind.
2- Source of Data on Pregnancies; The major determinant of study
design has been the threat of reporting bias in forest communities.
Given its importance, it is regrettable that we have no firm evidence
that the threat is real. The fact that the relation of herbicide use to
reproductive health has already been studied in the Northwest, however,
argues strongly for use of a convincingly bias-free source of data in
subsequent research. Thus, we have selected physician records rather
than interviews as the method of data collection.
The decision to use physician records to collect data pertaining to
all reported reproductive events has strengths as well as limitations.
With this data source, neither biased responses nor a high nonresponse
rate can affect study results. Using medical records as the data source
means, however, that some recognized spontaneous abortions may be missed; that data on potentially confounding variables may not be present
consistently enough to permit analysis; and that confirmation of residence and additional exposure information which might be obtained by
interview must be forsaken. Since the residential information contained
in the chart may not accurately reflect residence during spraying, when
couples may have been away from home, the proposed analysis using place
of residence to evaluate exposure status is ecologic. The potential for
error is greater for full-term pregnancies, where more absences from the

�-26-

home may occur in the nine gestation months, than for spontaneous abortions, which are of shorter gestation.
3' Case-Control Design| The difference in length of gestation for
spontaneous abortions and for term pregnancies has other more serious
implications for study design. Ordinarily, as in this instance, when
exposu re to the factor under study is less common than the outcome of
interest (the prevalence of exposure in the population is estimated to
be about 2-4%, while the usual rate of spontaneous abortion is about 15%
of recognized pregnancies), a cohort analysis provides the most powerful
test of the study hypothesis. Special problems arise, however, in
applying this approach to the study of spontaneous abortion in relation
to an exposure occurring during pregnancy. Si. v ^ &gt;.he period at risk of
exposure increases with increasing length of pregnancy, th.?re is a
built-in bias to define term pregnancies as "exposed", and thus, associate exposure with the satisfactory outcome.
A case-control analysis of the data, where cases are pregnancies
ending in spontaneous abortion (fetal death at 28 weeks gestation or
earlier) and controls are pregnancies ending after 23 weeks gestation,
can meet the problem outlined above by considering exposure in the
control pregnancy only up to the date of abortion of the referent case.
It would be impossible in the small Oregon sample to equalize the period
at risk for births and abortions in a cohort analysis. A lifetable
analysis in days (or weeks) of gestation would be needed to ensure that
successful pregnancies were not at greater risk of exposure than pregnancies ending in abortion, because of their increased gestation. The
number of pregnancies in the Pacific Northwest forest area are too few
to contemplate this approach. Failure to control gestation in relation
to risk of exposure will not merely dilute an effect, if one exists, but
will actually bias a study against detecting an effect. Thus, the gain
in statistical power that would ordinarily result from organizing the
data into cohorts of exposed and unexposed pregnancies is offset by the
inherent bias that exists in studying spontaneous abortion in relation
to an exposure which occurs during pregnancy. This argues for a casecontrol analysis. Since age is associated with abortion and often with
habits, such as smoking, which also are associated with abortion, we
propose also that cases and controls be matched loosely for maternal age
( 30 years, 30+ years).
4-6. The Forest Residents: The decision to restrict analysis to
comparisons of women living in forest areas provides an indirect control
for the unknown effects of lifestyle on reproduction. If the alleged
higher risk of spontaneous abortion in timbered areas as compared with
other areas is truly a reflection of the population's lifestyle and not
of their exposure to herbicides, then comparisons made within forest
areas, where lifestyle and service use patterns should be similar, will
reveal this. If, on the other hand, herbicide exposure does have an
effect, that too should be detectable given that herbicide applications
within.the forests are highly variable with respect to place and year.

�-27-

The focus on forested areas also maximizes the prevalence of exposure by
excluding noninformative pregnancies — that is, those that are never at
risk of exposure. It also compensates somewhat for the lack of systematically collected data on potentially confounding variables such as
smoking, alcohol drinking and drug use because of the similarity in
lifestyle of the residents.
7. Seasonality: In order to control for the potential confounding of
the effects of season of conception with timing of spraying, cases and
controls should be matched for month of LMP so that the frequency of
exposure can be compared among pregnancies conceived at similar periods.
c. Estimates of Sample Size and Description of the Analysis
The limiting factor on sample size is the number of spontaneous
abortions occurring in the Oregon coastal forests over a five-year
period. To boost sample size, we have extended the study period to five
years, the longest period for which exposure data are reported to be
reliably available, and have considered the study area to be the entire
coastal corridor of Oregon forests.
The estimated number of cases was generated as follows:
1. The number of livebirths occurring in 1978 was calculated for the
population falling within the Oregon coastal forests: n=l400 livebirths.
2. The number of spontaneous abortions occurring each year was estimated assuming that livebirths represent 85% of recognized pregnancies:
n=241 spontaneous abortions.
3. Based on results of our medical records survey, it was assumed that
as few as 50% of ths abortions occurring would be found (with usable
data) in physician records. (This assumption may be somewhat strigent.)
n=120 spontaneous abortion found.
4. The number of ascertained abortions per year was multiplied by five
to get the total for the study period.
We estimate that 600 abortions will be ascertained through a review
of all physician records in the forest region.
Since spraying occurs only in the spring-summer, pregnancies occurring at different times of the year vary in the risk of exposure either
prior to conception or during gestation. We propose that the exposure
status of each conception, whether a case or control, c&lt;&lt;Lld be described
in one of five categories: exposed 4-6 months prior to LHP; exposed 1-3
months prior to LMP; exposed in the 1-3 months following LMP; exposed in
the 4-6 months following LMP; not exposed 1-6 months prior to LMP or 1-6
months following LMP, that is, not exposed in any of these four time

�-28-

periods. For pregnancies ending within 28 weeks of the LMP, these
categories of exposure status are mutually exclusive, provided spraying
does not occur twice in the same location in any one year. As mentioned
earlier, the gestation of controls considered in assigning exposure
status ends at the time of abortion for the referent case. A contingency table analysis would be used to compare the distributions of cases
and controls with respect to these five categories of exposure.
Given that approximately 4% of the forest is sprayed each year, we
estimate that 1% of the sample will fall into each of the four exposure
categories and the remaining 96% will be unexposed both in the six
months prior to conception and in the first six months of gestation in
any year.
d. Statistical Power
In the next table we have illustrated the size of the effect which
could be detected with 80% power ( =.05; two-tailed) if the effect of
exposure is confined to one three-month period prior to or during gestation and 600 cases are compared with 600 controls. (In the example, we
show the effect as occurring only with exposure during the first trimester of pregnancy.) We have also carried out the same calculation also
assuming two controls were selected for each case. The effect is shown
as the increase in exposure frequency among cases relative to their
controls.
As may be seen from the second column of the table, only large
effects (odds ratio = 4.1, or 2.7 in the case of two controls per case)
could be excluded with confidence if the distributions did not differ
significantly. On the other hand, if exposure had an effect during more
than one three-month period (e.g., throughout the first two trimesters
of pregnancy) an odds ratios of 2.7 could be detected with equal numbers
of cases and controls.
Perhaps it should be mentioned that three factors known to be associated
with spontaneous abortion each have odds ratios less than those set out
in the table. The odds associated with heavy smoking are 1.7; with
drinking daily, 2.5; .and with prior spontaneous abortions, 2.0. Thus,
the effects likely to be detected in the study described here, are
larger in size than those of previously identified risk factors. Also,
it should be mentioned that the sample described here may include multiple pregnancies to the same couple, raising the problem of noni
ndependence in the unit of analysis. If the sample were restricted to
one pregnancy per couple, the sample size, and consequently the power of
the test, would be further reduced.

�-29-

Table 3
ILLUSTRATION OF THE EFFECT SIZES WHICH COULD BE DETECTED IN THE
OREGON FOREST SAMPLE (WITH 80% POWER*) USING ONE CONTROL PER CASE
AND USING TWO CONTROLS PER CASE

Expected %
Distribution
of Sample

% Distribution
Which Could Be
Detected as
Significantly
Different From
Expected If
N cases =600 &amp;
N controls =600

% Distribution
Which Could Be
Detected as
Significantly
Different From
Expected If
N cases =600 &amp;
N controls =1200

Exposed 4-6 months
prio;. to LMP

1.0

1.0

1.0

Exposed 1-3 months
prior to LMP

1.0

1.0

1.0

Exposed 1-3 months
after LMP

1.0

4.0 (odds=4.1)

2.7 (odds=2.7)

Exposed 4-6 months
after LMP

1.0

1.0

1.0

96.0

93.0

Not exposed

*

=,05, two-tailed

94.0

�-30-

e. Conclusion
The statistical power of the analysis might be greater than the
above estimate if:
1. The prevalence of exposure is substantially higher than has been
estimated, perhaps because the topography of the West Coast forests
produces exposures in a larger proportion of population than is suggested by the percentage of treated land. For example, if the prevalence of exposure was as high as 8% rather than the 4% estimated, the
detectable odds ratio for an effect confined to one three-month period
would be 2.8.
•
2. Ascertainment of abortions in physicians' records is better than the
50% estimated; if ascertainment improved from 50% to 70%, the number of
cases would increase from 600 to 840. As an indication of how this
would improve power, the detectable odds ratio for an effect confined to
one three-month period is changed from 4.1 to 3.3.
. 3. Assuming the preceding estimates of exposure frequency and sample
size set out in (d) above are correct, an increase in sample size would
produce an improvement in the power to detect a more modest effect.
This could be accomplished by extending the study to include residents
in the Northern California forests. This last suggestion may be the
most pragmatic. Certainly based on the present estimates of the sample
available, the power of the study set out here is not adequate to search
for moderate effects of exposure to 2,4,5-T (odds ratios of 1.8 or 2.0).
In sum, we consider that the Oregon coastal forests cannot provide
a sample sufficient to test whether exposure to 2,4,5-T has a moderate
association with spontaneous abortion.
In addition to the problem of sample size one must worry about the
further reduction in power stemming from the imprecision of the operational measure of exposure.
Further, the use of medical records as the data source means that
the analysis is essentially ecologic and also requires the assumption
that use of medical care does not relate to risk of exposure.

�-31-

Refereaces Cited
McDonald, A.D. 1971. Seasonal distribution of abortions. Br J Pev
Soc Med. 25: 222-224.
Murray, F.J., Smith, F.A., Nitschke, K.D., Humiston, C.G., Kociba,
R.J., and B.A. Schwetz. 1979. Three-generation reproduction study
of rats given 2,3,7,8- Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) in the
diet. Tpxicol. Appl. Pharmacol. In press.
Nelson, T., Oakley, G.P. and T.H. Shepard. 1971. Collection of human
embryos and fetuses. In Monitoring, Birth Defects, and Environment;
The Problem of Surveillance, Hook, E.B., Janerich, D.T. and I.H.
Porter, eds., pp. 45-64.
New York City Department of Health. 1971. The Influence of Season of
Conception on Obstetric Casualties. New York: Health Services
Administration.
Smith, F.A., Schwetz, B.A., Murray, F.J., Crawford, A.A., John, J.A.,
Kociba, R.J. and C.G. Humiston. 1973. Three generation reproduction
study of rats ingesting 2,4,5-Trichlorophenoxyacetic acid in the
diet. Unpublished manuscript.
Tung, Ton that, Lang, Ton due, and Do due Van. 1979. The question of
mutagenic effects on the second generation after exposure to herbicides. Unpublished manuscript.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Environmental Studies Program. 1979.
Report of Assessment of a Field Investigation of Six-Year Spontaneous
Abortion Rates in Three Oregon Areas in Relation to Forest 2,4,5-T
Practices.

�-32-

VII.

Site Visit 2: Arkansas

Arkansas was of special interest as a potential study site because
it presented an opportunity to examine the use of 2,4,5-T on both timber
and rice in contiguous areas and thus, in relation to a homogeneous
population. The map which follows shows the areas within the state
where rice and timber are cultivated commercially. Prior to the site
visit, two rice counties (counties C and D) and two timber counties
(counties E and F) were selected for investigation. State and local
officials considered these counties to be typical of the rice and timber
cultivating areas. Our findings are summarized below.

TIMBER

ARKANSAS

�•33-

A. Exposure Data
1.

Timber

The similarities and differences which were noted between the
treated forests in Arkansas and in the Pacific Northwest are descibed
below.
a

- Species produced; In Arkansas, pine is produced, rather than
the Douglas fir of the Northwest. Pine natures more rapidly than fir.
**• Application Rate: Despite the fact that the rate is the same:
Arkansas has a broader spectrum of target species to deal with that is,
2,4,5-T is applied at an average of 2-3 J.bs per acre.
c. Size cf Treatment Unit: Cutting units in Arkansas range from
10-1000 acres, with an average of 200-500 acres. The average cutting
unit in the Oregon national forests is on the order of 40 acres. This
may suggest that the Arkansas population is at risk of exposure from
fewer treatment sites than the Oregon population.
d. Topography; The commercial timber area in Arkansas consists of
gently rolling hills rather than the steep slopes and narrow valleys of
Oregon. This would seem to reduce somewhat the potential for drift, A
network of streams like the one which runs through the Oregon forests
does not exist. In Arkansas forests, the water supply comes from wells
sunk over 1000 feet down. Hence, contamination of water supply is less
likely.
e. Population Density: In comparison to the Pacific Northwest,
the less rugged terrain of the Arkansas Plains produces a higher population density, as sample data indicate, and a more even distribution of
population throughout the forested area.
f. Extent of Annual Treatments; In both Oregon and Arkansas,
owners of timberland claim to treat 2-4% of their acreage per year.
8- Land Ownership: Commercial timberlands in Arkansas are entirely privately owned, mostly by to a few large corporations. There
are two national forests in the northwestern half of the state but they
are hardwood, not pine producers, and thus do not use much 2,4,5-T.
In summary, although conditions in the Oregon forests may lead to a
higher dose level of exposure, the Arkansas forests seem to have a
larger population at risk of exposure.
h. Exposure records; The state of Arkansas regulates the use of
2,4,5-T, 2,4-D, and other hormonal herbicides, and requires that records
of every application be filed with the State Plant Board. Private
applicators, however, are exempted from this regulation. Most corporate
timber operations have their own helicopters and hence qualify as
"private" rather than "public" applicators. Thus, Plant Board regarding
applications of 2,4,5-T on timber are substantially incomplete.

�-34-

The corporate owners, who are banded together into a consortium
called the Arkansas Forestry Association, keep their own records. If
the study design met their approval and confidentiality of data was
guarded, it would probably be possible to arrange to abstract their
records. The proposed concomitant assessment of effects of use in the
adjacent rice area was viewed as a strength of the study design by tne
local timber representative with whom we spoke.
2. Rice
a. Application and Acreage: The agricultural section of Arkansas
is essentially the southeast portion of the state, particularly the
region known as the Delta, located between the Arkansas and Mississippi
Rivers. The principal crops are rice, soybean and cotton. The trend
over time has been to increase the total acreage cropped, with a shift
away from cotton to rice and soybean.
Currently the total acreage harvested in rice is about 1.2
million, with the two sample counties having the largest number of rice
acres: in 1978, 114,000 acres of rice were planted in county C and in
county D, 89,000 acres were planted in rice.
The use of 2,4,5-T in connection with rice cultivation has been
described on pages 9-10 ol this report. There it was noted that rice is
typically alternated with soybean to restore the soil. Like cotton,
soybeans are sensitive to 2,4,5-T; however, a number of other pesticides
are recommended for use on cotton and soybean. In fact, pesticides
other than 2,4,5-T are also applied to rice fields. Thus, the agricultural population is at risk of exposure to many chemicals. The table
which follows lists all pesticides that may be used on rice, cotton or
soybean. It is not possible to state with certainty that these other
agents are without risk to human reproduction.
Table 4
Pesticides Recommended for Use on Rice, Soybean and Cotton

Recommended
Pesticides

Rice

Soybean

Cotton

Ordram
Modown
Propanil
Ronstar &amp; Pronpanil
Propanil 3 &amp; 3
Propanil &amp; Ordram 3
Ordram 10 G
2,4,5-T

Basalin
Tolban
Treflan
Cobex
Prowl
Lasso
Lorox
Sencor-Lexone

Basalin
Cobex
Prowl
Tolban
Treflan
Tolban &amp; Cotoran
Treflan &amp; Cotoran
Bladex 80 W

�-35-

HERBICIDES

FUNGICIDES

2,4,5-T &amp; Propanil
Silvex
Basagran
Basagraa &amp; Propanil
Propanil

Arastan 70%
Busan 30-A
Captan
Difolatan
Dithane M-45
Terra-Coat L-205
Vitavax
Benlate 50%

Metalkamate
Carbofuran
Malathion
Methyl Parathion
Carbaryl
Toxaphene

INSECTICIDES

Treflan or Tolban &amp; Sencor-Lexone
Prowl &amp; Sencor-Lexone
Lasso &amp; Senco or Lexone
Treflan &amp; Vernam 7£
Lasso &amp; Lore;:
Lasso &amp; Sencor Lexone
Surflan &amp; Lorex
Surflan &amp; Seucor-Lexone
Arasaa
Captan
Terra-Coat L-205
Vitavax -200
Terraclor Super X 10-2.5D
Benlate
Mertect 340-F

Acephate
Carbaryl
Methomyl
Methyl Parathion
Toxaphene

Bladex 4L
Cotoran or Lanex 80 W
Karmex or Dynex 80 W
Zorial 80 W

Basan 30
Busan 30 &amp; Demosaa
Deroosan-Thiram
Dexon Oaconil (72%)
PCNB &amp; Dexon •
Terra-Coat L-21
Terra-Coat L-205
Vitavax &amp; Captan
Vitavax &amp; Thiram
Demosan D
Demosan G
Terraclor Super XG
Terraclor Super XD
Terraclor Super XE
PCNB &amp; Captan 30D
PCND &amp; Manab D
PCNB-&amp; Thiraro D
Acephate
Aldicarb
Azinphosmethyl
Carbaryl
Chlorpyrifos
Chlordineform
Propargite
Dicrotophos
Dimethosate
Disulfoton
Endrin
EPN
Fenralerate
Malathion
Methidiathion
Methomyl
Methyl Parathion
Methyl Parathion FM
Methamidophos
Monocrotophos
Permethrin
Phorate
Sulprofos
Toxaphene
Trichlorfon

Compiled from data supplied by the Arkansas Cooperative Extension Service

�-36-

Because susceptible crops are often contiguous to rice paddies,
applicators attempt to control drift. Nevertheless, since many dwelling
units are in or adjacent the fields and crops extend right to the edge of
the towns and along both sides of the roads, there is clearly potential
for human exposure associated with spray applications, even for individuals
living on the edge of town.
Since this use of 2,4,5-T was not part of the EPA suspension process,
2,4,5~T will again be applied in Arkansas rice fields this coining summer.
However, only half as much 2,4,5-T will be available for use as in the
past because of declining stocks; manufacturers have ceased producing
2,4,5-T amine until after the current court action (involving a possible
total ban on use of 2,4,5-T) has been settled.
b. Records of Exposure: As mentioned above, Arkansas requires that
commercial applicators file both a notice of intent to apply the herbicide
and a record of each application, containing information on the client;
time and location of treatment (including distance and direction from
nearest town); wind and air conditions; amount and composition of chemical
used; crop treated; equipment used; and distance from susceptible crops.
These records are kept on file at the State Plant Board for a minimum of
three years and are available for public scrutiny. The Plant Board considers
its records to be quite complete with respect to agricultural use of 2,4,5-T.
3. Summa ry
The following factors are noteworthy in considering Arkansas as a
site for studying exposure of 2,4,5-T in connection with applications on
timber and rice:
Timber: Arkansas provides a larger population at risk of exposure to
2,4,5-T through timber use than does Oregon because commercial timber production
extends over a larger area and the topography is more conducive to settlement,
Rice; The major issues to be considered in studying the effect of 2,4,5-T
in agricultural settings are: (1) Exposure to 2,4,5-T is accompanied by exposure
to many other chemicals, none of which have been systematically examined in
relation to reproductive outcome; this is similar to the problem of multiple
exposures that is frequently encountered in studying occupational cohorts.
Thus, isolation of the effects of 2,4,5-T from effects of other exposures may be
difficult. (2) Populations living near rice fields may be exposed to 2,4,5-T
once or twice every three years. Therefore, a study in this setting offers the
opportunity (and difficulty) to distinguish the effects of lifetime low-dose
exposure from those of sporadic higher-dose exposure.
A great advantage of studying the rice setting is that there is continued
use; thus, cross-sectional or prospective research designs could be considered.
Population At Risk Of Exposure
Two main factors emerge as important in considering the Arkansar
population as a potential study group. First, it appears that sides have
not formed nor have attitudes hardened on the issue of whether pesticides have
adverse health effects. Certainly there is not the local furor in Arkansas

�-37-

that exists on the West Coast and, presumably, not the same threat of
reporting bias, in this largely unresearched population.
Second, the population at risk of exposure to 2,4,5-T in Arkansas
is, as on the West Coast forests, distinctive. In Oregon, the purported
lifestyle of the forest residents is thought to relate to reproductive
risk. In Arkansas the location of herbicide applications coincides with
the location of a high risk obstetric population.
Among the poorest states in the nation, Arkansas has an excess of
adverse pregnancy outcomes. The state's perinatal mortality rate of
20.8/1000 is similar to that of New York City. Its maternal mortality
rate is double the national rate (22/100,000 livebirths v. 11/100,000).
Its rate of teenage pregnancy may be the highest in the United States.
Within the state, indicators such as infant mortality, teenage
pregnancy, and low birthweight show that the population with the worst
reproductive outcome clusters in the southern part of the state; if one
draws a diagonal line from Polk County in the southwest through Little
Rock at the center of the state and up to Mississippi County ou the
eastern border, one finds that counties falling below the diagonal rank
poorly on these indicators. This area also represents the site of
2,4,5-T use within the state. Thus, a high-risk population comprised of
women with diabetes, hypertension, cardiac problems and other obstetric
risk factors, is also the population at risk of exposure to 2,4,5-T.
Because the type of exposure in rice and in timber areas is different, we attempted to discover whether the two populations differed.
Discussions with sociologists and anthropologists at the University of
Arkansas, and with others knowledgeable about the state, suggest that
they are fairly similar. Socioeconomically, the Delta and Plains areas
(i.e., rice and timber areas, respectively, are similarly stratified,
with timber companies and plantations functioning in analogous ways to
produce communities where wealth and poverty coexist. Racially, there
may be slightly fewer blacks in the Plains than in the Delta.
C-

Reproductive Outcome Data

The medical care systems for rich and poor are separate. In addition, prenatal care and care for delivery are also frequently separated, with women receiving prenatal care locally but traveling to population centers to deliver.
1. Public Patients; The separation of place of prenatal care from
place of delivery occurs largely with poor patients, who typically
deliver at the one indigent care center in the state, located in Little
Rock. Prenatal care for the poor, including pregnancy testing, is
offered through local Health Department clinics. Two and a half years
ago, the state set up a fairly extensive prenatal care system throughout
the rural areas, using a cadre of nurse practitioners specially trained
in maternity care. Although poorer patients typically come in rather
late (after the first trimester), the Health Department follows them
closely and keeps a log of their progress on file. Patients reporting a
spontaneous abortion are referred to Little Rock or to general practitioners for care.

�-38-

Until recently, there was a widespread network of granny midwives
operating in the rural areas, but the state has tried to eliminate this
type of care.
2- Private Patients:
Private patients receive their obstetric care either from OB/GYN
specialists located in the urban areas, or from family practitioners.
Specialist obstetric care is at a premium in the state, and private
patients often wait 2 to 3 months to see an obstetrician. (In fact, the
Health Department has begun to offer interim services to such patients.)
Some of the physicians, we have interviewed expressed reluctance about
having their records utilized in research, because of their concern
regarding the confidentially of the patient/chart or because such research might disrupt the already busy office. The Health Deprtment
expressed willingness to share their records with us, and several hospitals offered use of their premises for our research.
3. S mama ry: The following factors emerge as relevant to a study
of reproductive outcome in Arkansas:
(a) Difficulty in finding obstetric data on local women;
(b) Incomplete data on reproductive events in medical records;
and
(c) Prerequisites for access to medical records.
, a Tracing obstetric events of^ local women; Because of the organi()
zation ob obstetric services, women from the same area may seek care
from a number of different sources at a considerable distance from home.
Conversely, the same practitioner may deliver care to women from many
different areas. Thus, the use of records to ascertain the reproductive
events of a certain local population would be difficult and inefficient.
(b) Incomplete data on reproductive events: There may be a considerable underestimate in medical records of reporductive events, especially
of early fetal loss, and especially those occurring to the poor. Poor
patients come for care quite late in pregnancy, later on average than
when most spontaneous abortions occur. Also, because prenatal services
for the poor are a fairly recent development, some women may continue to
rely on midwives or self-care. Opinion varies as to the extent of loss
these factors produce.
(c) Prerequisites for access to medical records: For those reproductive outcomes which are reported in the medical records, it may be
necessary to obtain prior consent from the patient to review the medical
chart.
D. Development^o£ a Study Design in Arkansas: In Arkansas, as in
Oregon, the research design for studying the relationship of 2,4j5-T to
reproductive outcome must evolve from both the hypotheses to be tested
and the characteristics of the study population. We discuss each in
turn, concluding with a description of the approach suggested by the
nature of the site; an estimate of the size of the sample available for
study; and a summary and recommendations.
1. Hypothesis to Be Tested: The use of Arkansas rather than Oregon as
the site for study allows the test of a more comprehensive set of hypo-

�-39-

theses. Three types of exposure could be investigated. In the timbered
area, the population is at risk of a relatively high-dose exposure
occurring very occasionally over a lifetime. Thus this population permits one to examine the effects of a single intense exposure to 2,4,5-T.
The residents of the rice areas are at risk of a low-dose exposure which
occurs repeatedly over a lifetime. In this population, one could examine
two types of effects: the effects of acute, low-dose exposure; ?nd the
effects of chronic and possibly accumulating exposure. Thus, Arkansas
provides a setting in which to study the relationship of pregnancy
outcome to 2,4,5-T exposure which occurs either long before conception
or immediately prior to coucept-tion, as well as during pregnancy. It is
therefore possible to consider whether exposures in childhood or the
very early reproductive years have an impact on the outcome of later,
unexposed pregnancies.
2. Factors Affecting Study Design Decisions: Characteristics of the
types of exposure, the data and the study population have been alluded
to in the preceding text but are set out systematically in the following
table. Next to each condition mentioned, we specify a research strategy
which may answer the problem posed by the condition. A discussion of
the strengths, limitations and unresolved issues associated with the
various study design options follow the table.

�-40-

Table 5
ARKANSAS;

Conditions

Conditions
A continuing, as well as
suspended, herbicide use
available for study.
2. Incomplete and inaccessible
medical records. • ••

Design Decision
Cross-sectional, prospective, or
retrospective approaches could be
taken.
Interviews with residents rather
than records as the primary source
of data.

3. No evidence of potential bias,,
in reporting by residents.
4. Population at risk has high-,
risk obstetric profile.

Restrict analysis to comparisons
within the same population.

5. Possible cumulative ef£ects
from chronic agricultural
exposure.

Compare With a population never
exposed to 2,4,5-T.

6. Problem of multiple
exposures of farm population

Compare to population with similar
exposures but not to 2,4,5-T, or
establish effect first, disentangle
later.

7. Low prevalence of exposure
in timbered areas.
~
8. Seasonality of exposure.9. Different periods at risk
of exposure for spontaneous"
abortions and livebirths.

_ Select samples depending on treatment status during the study years
of interest.
Control for time of conception.
Control length of gestation to
'equalize period at risk.

�-41-

*• Discussions of Study Design Options
1. Possible Cross-sectional and/or Prospective Data Collection:
Be-cause the use of 2,4,5-T in agriculture is continuing, albeit on a
limited basis, it may be possible to collect at least some of the data
on exposure and pregnancy outcome either cross-sectionally or prospectively. The use of systematic drift and residue data would permit
develop-ment of a better index of individual exposure. With respect to
spontaneous abortion, it would be advantageous to arrange to examine the
abortuses since such an examination would add specifity to the description of the outcome (e.g. chromosomally normal conceptus or abnormal
conccptus with specific anomalies, or abortus with morphologic abnormalities). Concurrent measures of both exposure and outcome would certainly
strengthen inferences regarding an association between the use of
2,4,5-T and poor pregnancy outcome.
There is at least .one facility in a rice growing county where a
hospital-based study of spontaneous abortions might be set up. The
number of women treated for spontaneous abortion in this hospital is not
large (N 150 annually), and thus a cross-sectional study limited to this
setting would be inadequate to test the hypothesis that exposure has a
modest effect on the frequency and nature of spontaneous abortion.
If, however, the effect of 2,4,5-T is to induce chromosomal or
morphologic anomalies which are ordinarily rare, then a comparison of
the chromosomal and morphologic data from this hospital with the data we
have obtained in our New York City study should point up this effect.
Thus, depending on the costs involved in carrying out such a study, it
may be a valuable adjunct to a larger investigation based on historical
data about previous pregnancy outcomes.
Given that 2,4,5-T is no longer used in the timber area, a retrospective analysis essentially identical to that described for Oregon is
proposed. We consider it likely that a similar analytic approach would
be taken in the rice areas. A major difference, however, between the
Oregon and Arkansas studies is in the source of the data on previous
obstetric events: record review in Oregon and personal interview in
Arkansas.
2-3. Source of Data on Pregnancies; For the reasons cited in Table
5 aud described above, the preferred approach to identifying pregnancies
appears to be through personal interviews with residents rather than a
search of medical records. Ordinarily, interview data generate a more
complete account of reproductive events than other methods, although it
may not *•* possible to confirm all information. An attempt could be
made, however, to validate the reproductive outcomes for which care was
sought at a medical facility or from midwives and to evaluate the reliability of reports through interviews with husbands, friends.or relatives.
Invalidated and validated outcomes could also be analyzed separately,
and the results of these analyses compared.
In addition to a more complete obstetric history, interviews with
residents provide an opportunity to develop supplementary data on other
sources of exposure and on potentially confounding variables.

�-42-

It is not clear at this time how the sample to be interviewed would
best be selected.and approached. A further feasibility study is needed
to determine: (1) whether sample selection should be based in health
care institutions, other institutions (e.g. church groups) or in entire
cotnm-unities.; (2) whether residents will willingly discuss their reproductive history; (3) whether the racial or regional characteristic of
the inter-viewer will influence the quality of the interview data (opini
ons of local sociologists and anthropologists vary on this question);
(4) whether the respondents can provide valid reliable and detailed data
on previous preg-nancies.
4. Obstetric Risk Factors; The fact that the use of 2,4,5-T within Arkansas coincides with the location of a high risk obstetric population is similar to th« problem faced ia Oregon in regard to the lifes
tyle of the forest residents, and can be dealt with similarly. That is,
the possibility of confounding by such risk factors may be limited by
restricting data collection to homogeneous populations, within which
some members are exposed and others are not exposed to 2,4,5-T. Potentially confounding variables may be controlled statistically in the
analysis.
5- I-ifstime Risk: In order to test whether there are effects
assoc-iated with chronic, but not current, exposure to 2,4,5-T, the
comparison population must necessarily be one that has never been exposed
to 2,4,5-T. It seems likely that the timbered area of the state, where
exposure occurs so infrequently, should generate a suitable control
group for the residents of the rice-growing areas who have been exposed
in the past but not in relation to their current pregnancy. A comparison
between these two groups, who are said to be similar in other relevant
respects, should provide a test of "ever"/ "never" exposure.
A nonpositive finding from such a comparison woul^ provide
convincing evidence that chronic exposure to 2,4,5-T is without long
-term effects. A positivs association, however, would not implicate
2,4,5-T alone since individuals chronically exposed to this herbicide
are also chronically ex-posed to a wide range of other pesticides. In
the event of a positive assoc-iation, data on a population exposed to
similar agents, excepting 2,4,5-T, would be needed to determine whether
exposure to 2,4,5-T was the relevant factor. Perhaps the population in
the Texas rice fields, where MCPA is used in lieu of 2,4,5-T, might
provide suitable controls. In view of the difficulty and expense involved
in carrying out the proposed study, it seems most practical to attempt
at the start to establish that an effect exists in association with
agricultural herbicide use, and defer the problems of targeting the
specific agent responsible.
6. Concomitant Exposures: The multiple chemical exposures
sustained by Arkansas' agricultural population pose less of a problem in
evaluating the effects of acute exposure in the agricultural setting.
Within any one year, 50-60% of the population is exposed to 2,4,5-T.
Exposed and unexposed individuals are similar in terms of their lifetime
exposure to 2,4,5-T and other chemicals. Within any one year, however,

�-43-

tbe other chemical ex-posures of individuals exposed to 2,4,5-T may
differ from those of in-dividuals not exposed to 2,4,5-T. It is apparent
that there is a marked overlap in insecticides and fungicides used in
rice and soybean fanning (see Table 4, pp 34. Thus, any difference in
exposure to other chemicals between residents living near rice (exposed
to 2,4,5-T) and soybean (not exposed to 2,4,5-T) crops may be limited to
one or a few specific herbicides. If the application times for these
different herbicides vary, it may well be possible to disentangle the
effects of 2,4,5-T from those of other exposures encountered during the
same season. Insofar as the findings oo acute exposure are similar in
the rice and timber areas, the inference that an association in the rice
area is linked to 2,4,5-T, rather than to other chemicals, will be
strengthened.
7. Sampling Procedures: Since timber use of 2,4,5-T covers a great
expanse of Arkansas, it would be most efficient to select the study
samples depending on treatment status during the years for which spray
data are available. By consulting records of past herbicide applications, it should be possible to target areas known to have been
treated during the relevant years, thus making the population selected
for study as informative as possible.
8-9. Seasona 1 ity/Length^ of Period^ at^ Ri s k: The seasonality of
2,4,5-T use and the problem of fivebirths and spontaneous abortions
being at risk of exposure for different durations of gestation are the
same problems as were raised and discussed in connection with the Oregon
study, and can be hand-led similarly here; that is, by matching pregnancies ending in abortion and term pregnancies for time of conception
and by curtailing the period used to define exposure in term
pregnancies.
b. Estimates of Sample Size
The number of cases of spontaneous abortions and of term births
(controls) occurring per year in both the 18 counties where timber is
grown commercially and the 13 counties which have substantial acreage
planted in rice have been estimated. As vas described in the section on
sample size determinations for Oregon, the expected number of spontaneous abortions was derived by considering the number of livebirths,
from published vital stat-istics, to represent 85% of pregnancies. (The
expected rate of abortion is estimated at 15% of recognized conceptions.) We consider that at least 80% of women will consent to be
interviewed and thus 80% of abortions will be identified. The numbers
set out below represent the estimated numbers of spontaneous abortions
and terra births for one year. The length of the study poriod has not
been determined; however, the State Plant Board keeps records for a
minimum of three years, and so an upper limit of three years of pregnancies is available.
Although the two exposed areas generate similar numbers of abortions per year, one might need study periods of differing lengths in the
timber and the rice areas. Given that the prevalence of exposure is so

�-44-

diffcrent in the two populations, the power provided by samples of the
same size will vary. Thus the low frequency of exposure in forested
areas requires that a larger sample of pregnancies be studied to test
for a modest effect.
It should also be noted, however, that the forested areas of
Arkansas provide more cases in one year than could be garnered in Oregon
over five years (N = 742 per year in Arkansas, v. N =600 per 5 years in
Oregon.)
Sample Sizes Available
18 Timber Counties: 5,255 births and an estimated 742 spontaneous
abortions per year.
13 Rice Counties: 5,450 births and an estimated 769 spontaneous
abortions per year.
In summary, it appears that Arkansas may provide a suitable site in
which to examine the relation of 2,4,5-T exposure to spontaneous abortions.
VIII.

iiuncviry and Recommendations

We have reviewed several issues bearing on the decision to examine
the relation of 2,4,5-T exposure to spontaneous abortion. Two sites
have been considered: the Pacific Northwest where 2,4,5-T is applied to
timber, aud Arkansas where 2,4,5-T is applied both to timber and rice
iiel'lrf. The primary strategy proposed to study this relation is similar
for both sites. We propose that the frequency of exposure to 2,4,5-T be
compared among women experiencing spontaneous abortions (cases) and
women delivering after 28 weeks gestation (controls). Controls would be
matched to cases for month of last menstrual period and maternal age.
Exposure status ftr controls would be assigned only for that period
which corresponds to the gestation of the matched case at the time of
spontaneous abortion.
Apart from the similarity in the analytic approaches which would be
taken to study the relation of 2,4,5-T exposure to spontaneous abortion
in either setting (the Pacific Northwest or Arkansas), there are differences in the range of hypotheses which may be tested, the source of data
and the sample sizes available, which bear on the choice of a study
setting. Each of these is discussed below.
1. Range of Hypotheses
The hypotheses which may be tested differ depending on whether the
herbicide use is for timber or rice production. In the timber areas in
the Pacific Nortlwest and in Arkansas, previous exposures to 2,4,5-T
were infrequent, brief and possibly of fairly high dose. Therefore, in
either of these areas, the test would be of the relation of an acute
exposure, either prior to or during pregnancy, to spontaneous abortion.
Although it is possible that contamination of food and water supplies
may follow spraying and provide a possible chronic exposure, this route

�-45-

of continued exposure has not been broadly demonstrated. Indeed, the
observation which«drew attention to the possibility that 2,4,5-T exposure is related to abortion suggests that an effect, if present, coincides with the time of spraying. We consider, therefore, that the
hypothesis best tested in a timber area is that acute, rather than
chronic, exposure is associated with spontaneous abortion.
In the rice areas in Arkansas it is possible to examine the relation of both acute and chronic 2,4,5-T exposure to spontaneous abortion.
In each year, approximately 50-60% of the acreige is planted with rice,
and it is a fair inference that approximately the same proportion of the
population may be exposed.
In the agricultural setting numerous pesticides are used, making it
difficult to isolate the effects of 2,4,5-T. Nevertheless, because rice
is alternated with broadleaf plants, there will be a segment of the
population in any year that is not exposed to 2,4,5-T. Thus enabling a
comparison between reproductive experience in a group currently exposed
and a group currently unexposed to 2,4,5-T will be possible. This
approach is similar to the one frequently employed in occupational
studies: the exposed workers are often compared to a group of workers
from the same industry who are exposed to chemicals other than the agent
under study.
A study which examines the effects of both timber and agricultural
use has the advantage that the effects of acute exposure associated with
these two uses may be compared. If the findings from the rice area are
similiar to those from the timber area, where the population is not
exposed to multiple pesticides, the inference that 2,4,5-T, rather than
Some other pesticide, is associated with abortion will be strengthened.
Since the fields sprayed with 2,4,5-T may also be treated with other
herbicides not used in areas which are not sprayed with 2,4,5-T, the
finding of an association of 2,4,5-T exposure with abortion in the rice
areas but not in the timber area will be difficult to interpret. It may
be possible to distinguish the effects of 2,4,5-T from other herbicides
(on which data will also be collected) if the effect of 2,4,5-T is
limited to a .short time interval, either during gestation or immediately
prior to conception.
In Arkansas it is also possible to examine whether long-term residence in a rice-growing community is associated with spontaneous abortion by comparing the .rates of spontaneous abortion in the rice counties
with that in the timber counties. The failure to detect an association
will suggest that chronic exposure to 2,4,5-T is not associated with
spontaneous abortion. \ possible association between residence in the
rice area and spontaneous abortion would not specifically implicate
2,4,5-T because of the concomitant exposures to other pesticides. As
mentioned earlier, in the event of a positive association, it would be
necessary to collect data from another rice-growing area in which
2,4,5-T is not used in order to determine whether the observed effect is
owed to exposure to this pesticide alone.

�-46-

2. Sources of Data
The data source differs depending cm the location (Pacific Northwest or Arkansas) of the study. In the Pacific Northwest, physician
records would serve as the data source for information on pregnancy
outcomes. This data source is unlikely to be affected by the current
debate regarding the merits of pesticide use. This debate would probably affect the quality of interview data. A strength of —:c"*rd-based
data is that it will be possible to distinguish spontaneous abortions
where pregnancy was confirmed either by a pregnancy test or pathologic
examination of the abortus, from those where it was not. There are,
however, several limitations to using this data source: (1) for seme
spontaneous abortions which were known to the physician at the time of
abortion there will not be sufficient data in the record to permit use
in the analysis; (2) pregnancies where medical attention was not sought
will not be included in these records; (3) data on potentially confounding variables (e.g. smoking) will not be available. It is not
possible to estimate the way in which these limitations may affect the
results; this depends in part on whether there is an association between
exposure and the use of medical facilities for care of a spontaneous
abortion. Such an association would arise, for example, if exposure
leads to early spontaneous abortions and a low proportion of women
experiencing early abortions (e.g. 40%) attend physicians. In this
example, the association of exposure with abortion may be missed.
In Arkansas, data on previous obstetric events would be collected
by interview with women. This method of data collection ensures more
complete information on all three types of variables: pregnancy outcomes, including exposure through occupation and home and garden use of
pesticides; and potentially confounding variables. A limitation in
using this method of data collection in this setting is that it may not
be possible to validate all reports of pregnancy outcomes.
Frequently the limitations of record-based data are offset by the
ease with which they are collected. This is not the case, however, in
the Pacific Northwest, where it will be necessary to abstract the obstetric records of all physicians practicing ia the area.
While the proposed interview study in Arkansas will also entail an
extensive effort, the data obtained in this study will be far more
comprehensive than those obtained in the record review study. In regard
to the exposure variable, in the Arkansas study it will be possible to
gather information on residence both prior to and during pregnancy (i.e.
whether vacations were taken) and whether there may have been other
routes of exposure. Furthermore, in the rice areas, data on the drift
of spray and residue in foods could be collected during the spraying
season.
3.

Sajn£leJ5ize

The population available for study ia the Pacific Northwest is
small. In order to develop a sample of reproductive events of sufficient size to insure that the study will have adequate power to detect

�-47-

a moderate effect (odds ratio =2), both the Oregon and Northern California regions must be studied. Conducting a study over a large a-ea
(and across state lines) may have implications for both cost and efficiency, since exposure data would need to be obtained from several
sources. Furthermore, exposure and reproductive .data extending over a
five-year period (1973-78) would be needed; and the quality of these
data may vary with study year.
In Arkansas a considerably larger population is at risk of exposure. For example, in a single year, the forest area of this state can
generate more cases of spontaneous abortions than are expected in the
Oregon forest over a five-year period. The larger the sample, the
greater the power of the study to detect modest effects.
The large population available for study in Arkansas also has the
advantage that only one pregnancy for each couple would need to be used
in the central analysis, although data on all pregnancies to each couple
will be collected. In the power calculations presented earlier for the
Pacific Northwest, we have permitted more than one pregnancy per couple
to enter the analysis. We have not yet resolved whether this approach
is consistent with the assumption that observations must be independent
in order for a contingency table analysis of the type proposed here to
be appropriate. If, on further consideration of this issue, we determine that the assumption of independence requires that only one pregnancy per couple enter the analysis, then the power of the Pacific
Northwest study is even lower than that set out previously. A similar
problem does not arise for the Arkansas study, where, if needed, there
are sufficient numbers of couples to provide the needed numbers of
single reproductive events.
In sum, we consider that the Arkansas timber and rice areas are
likely to permit a more thorough examination of the relation of 2,4,5-T
exposure to spontaneous abortion than the Pacific Northwest timber
areas. Arkansas offers strong advantages both in the range of hypotheses to be tested, the quality of the reproductive and exposure data,
and the size of effects which may be detected with adequate statistical
power. We have not yet evaluated the feasibility of collecting data by
interview in this region, and so a firm conclusion regarding the potential of this site for the proposed study awaits this assessment.
4. Summary
A study carried out in the Pacific Northwest coastal region
would provide an ecologic test of the hypothesis that 2,4,5-T exposure
is associated with spontaneous abortion. Given that the data would be
confined to obstetric events recorded in physician records (possibly
about 50% of all recognized abortions) and that proximity of any individual to spray application site can not be confirmed, the results will be
limited in their implications for a casual relation between 2,4,5-T
exposure and spontaneous abortion. If both the obstetric and spray data
were already computerized and available for linkage, it would be efficient and expedient to carry out the proposed ecologic analysis. However, given that these data must be abstracted in order to carry out
this analysis, the costs of such data collection must be weighed against

�-48-

the limited hypotheses and inferences which attend an ecologic study in
this small population.
In contrast, Arkansas provides a setting in which the relation
between 2,4,5-T and spontaneous abortion might be examined on an individual level. The effects of both chronic and sporadic exposure may be
examined in this state where two major types of herbicide use are found
in adjacent areas.

�-49-

Appendix A
Reproductive Outcome Data

A. PHYSICIAN INTERVIEWS
Name
Address_
Phone
Time and date of interview
For physicians practicing in a group, please note:
number of physicians in the practice
whether procedures and record are uniform_
Period over which the office has done obstetrics:
1. Ask for an estimate of the following data by month or by year,
whichever the interviewee finds easier: (For group practices,
get totals for the group, not just for the physician interviewed.)
total deliveries:
total spontaneous abortions:
seen in office
telephone report only__
total spontaneous abortions hospitalized by this office:_
at what hospital(s)
2. What proportion of obstetric cases in (name the area of_interest)
does this office handle?

�-50-

3. Characteristics of obstetric population:
(a) patient residence
(b) race
(c) education
(d) age

(e) other demographic characteristics

4.

Ask for estimate of the proportion of women in (nam&gt;i area of interest)
with (a) livebirths and (b) spontaneous abortions who do not attend a
hospital, physician, or other medical facility for care. (We need to
gauge what proportion of reproductive events could not be either
ascertained or validated in physician or hospital records.)

4a. What is the basis for this estimate?

�•51-

How soon after their last menstrual period do patients usually
come in fo"r confirmation of pregnancy? (NOrE: IF physician gives a
broad range, ask what percent comes in at the early end and what
proportion towards the end of the range. The purpose of the question
is to find out how many first trimester abortions may not be medically
attended.)

5a. What proportion are confirmed by pregnancy test?
by physician exam?

What proportion

5b. Where pregnancy tests have been used, ascertain:
type of pregnancy test

__

where results are analyzed
where results are recorded

6.

What proportion of patients experiencing spontaneous abortion have
had their pregnancy confirmed before the abortion?

6a. Of that proportion, how many by pregnancy tests? how many by PE?

�-52-

7. What is the office protocol with respect to a spontaneous abortion when:
(a) patient gives self-report by phone, pregnancy unconfirmed prior
to phone call.
(b) patient phones in self-report, pregnancy has been confirmed
prior to phone call.
Is the phone contact recorded iu the chart? Is date of abortion
recorded? Is LIP recorded? What other data are recorded?
Is a patient visit always or sometimes required following report
of spontaneous abortion?
What proportion of patients-reporting spontaneous abortion are
hospitalized? and for what reasons?
Are pathologic examinations done on the products of conception
to confirm pregnancy? When and where?
Pregnancy unconfirmed:

Pregnancy confirmed

�-53-

8.

Hand the interviewee the sheet with the list of variables (checklist
of variables) and have him/her fill out.

9.

How many total charts does this office have?

How are they filed and stored?

10. In this office, is there any way to pull only those charts of women
who have had pregnancies — e.g., an ongoing list of OB patients;
list of those pregnancy tested; list of path exams on POC; etc.

11. Within the chart, is there any quick way to retrieve all data on
pregnancies?

�-54-

12. Would be/she agree to a record search if a study were to be undertaken?

/ 13. Ask whether doctor would be willing to provide us access to names
of patients for the purpose of linking across facilities. (We
would
of course respect confidentiality of patients.)

14. Is amniocentesis available to patients?
reasons?

If so, where, and for what

�-55-

15. FOR AIL INTERVIEWEES: Ask to review 2-5 randomly selected charts.
(In case of a group practice, ask for two charts pe* physician.)
(a) check especially for information on smoking, alcohol, residence,
occupation.
(b) note whether chart:
i. is typed or handwritten; if latter, is it legible?
ii. does or does not have a facesheet?
iii.

is organized from current to past, or vice versa?

iv. provides a continuous history or has separate chart
for each calendar year?
(c) in case of GP, is reproductive data difficult to cull from record?

Comments:

�j

:
*

.

-56-

Appendix B

I

Checklist of Variables
i

Interviewee
Address
Phone__i

|

.

For the following variables, please estimate what proportion of your
records contain this information:
a) for a live or still birth

b) for a spontaneous abortion

DATE OF LMP
DATE OF ABORTION OF BIRTH
OTHER ESTIMATES OF GESTATION
(e.g. iotrauterine size)
;_

MOTHER'S DATE OF BIRTH
FATHER'S DATE OF BIRTH

'

._

MOTHER'S PREVIOUS REPRODUCTIVE HISTORY

,_

RACE OF MOTHER
RACE OF FATHER

•

EDUCATION OF MOTHER
EDUCATION OF FATHER
.'
;

•

OCCUPATION OF FATHER
OCCUPTATION OF MOTHER
PREGNANCY TEST RESULTS
PATHOLOGICAL REPORT ON
PRODUCT OF ABORTION
&lt;p» •**
ZIP CODE OR OTHER INDICATOR
OF PATIENT. ADDRESS

�•57-

MATERNAL SMOKING
MATERNAL ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION
MATERNAL IRRADIATION EXPOSURES
MATERNAL VIRAL INFECTION
SEX OF LIVEBIRTH
BIRTHWEIGHT OF LIVEBIRTK
CONGENITAL MALFORMATION IN
LIVEBIRTH
CONGENITAL MALFORMATION
IN STILLBIRTH

�-58-

Appendix C
Reproductive Outcome Data
B. HOSPITAL INTERVIEWS
Name
Address
Phone
Time and date of interview_
Name of Hospital
Number of beds total_
Number of OB beds
Number of physicians admitting OB/Gyn patients_
1. Ask for an estimate of the following data by month or year, whichever
the interviewee finds easier:
total deliveries:
total spontaneous abortions:
Inpatients
Outpatients_
Clinics_
ER

total induced abortions:
2. Does this hospital have a 'Birth Registrar' - someone who keeps summary
data on births, stillbirths, induced and spontaneous abortions?

�-59-

3. Are fetal death certificates filled out in hospital?
what gestation?

4. Please characterize your OB population in terms of:
(a) residence
(b) race
(c) education

(d) age
(e) other demographic characteristics

Beginning at

�-60-

Please estimate the proportion of women in the area with
(a) livebirths and (b) spontaneous abortions who do not attend
a hospital, go to a phyiscian, or other facility for care.
(We need to gauge what proportion of 'reproductivity events
could not: be either ascertained or validated in physician
or hospital records.)

5a. What is the basis for this estimate?

6.

Are most patients with livebirths or spontaneous abortions admitted
through a private physician, or do some patients have no physician?

7.

a. How are charts filed - by name, unit number, admitting or
discharge diagnosis? It is possible to access charts by
diagnosis?

b. Are the records computerized?
computerized as well?

If so, are outpatient records

c. What data are entered onto the computer?

�-61-

8.

How would one identify every spontaneous abortion that occurred
at your hospital? IF RECORDS ARE COMPUTERIZED: Have you ever
checked whether your computer records pick up every case from the
admissions book, path, log, OB clinic log, etc.?

9.

Hand the interviewee the sheet with the list of variables (checklist of
variables) and have him/her fill out. In the interest of clarity, ask
them to distinguish those data that are coded from those that appear in
the chart only.

�•62-

10. Ask for a printout, to take home, for several years' worth of both
livebirtns and spontaneous abortions, by zip jde, maternal age,
date of IMP, and date of event.

11. If we were to do a study could we have access to their records?

12. Could we have access to patient names for the purpose of linking
across facilities?

13. Do they offer amniocentesis?

If so, for what reason?

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00752

Author

Honchar, P.

Corporate Author

National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health

Report/Article Title Health Hazard Evaluation Report: HETA 80-039-1179,
Long Island Railroad, New York, New York, September
1982

Journal/Book Title
Year

1982

Month/Day

September

Color

D

Number of Images

is

DOSCriptOU NOtOS

Alvin L. Young filed this item under the category
"Human Exposure to Phenoxy Herbicides and TCDD"

Friday, March 02, 2001

Page 762 of 865

�Health Hazard
Evaluation
Report

HETA 80-039-1179
LONG ISLAND RAILROAD
NEW YORK, NEW YORK

�PREFACE

The Hazard Evaluations and Technical Assistance Branch of NIOSH conducts field;
investigations of possible health hazards in the workplace. These
investigations ar'e conducted under the authority of Section 20(a)(6) of the
Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970, 29 U.S.C. 669(a)(6) which
authorizes the Secretary of Health and Human Services, following a written
request from any employer or authorized representative of employees, to
determine whether any substance normally found in the place of employment has'si
potentially toxic effects in such concentrations as used or found.
'

• .-,•....

•

•

.-''' '.'f;-

'

•

.

'•

._' ; ; -y

The Hazard Evaluations and Technical Assistance Branch also, provides, upon
request, medical, nursing, and industrial hygiene technical and consultative'
assistance (TA) to Federal, state, and local agencies; labor; industry and
other groups or individuals to control occupational health hazards and to
prevent related trauma and disease.
'
^

Mention of company names or products does not constitute endorsement by the
National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health.

�HETA 80-039-1179
SEPTEMBER 1982
LONG ISLAND RAILROAD
NEW YORK

I.

NIOSH INVESTIGATORS:
P. Honchar, M.S.,
Ph.D.
~

SUMMARY

In November, 1979 the National Institute for Occupational. Safety and
Health (NIOSH) received a request for a Health Hazard Evaluation from
maintenance employees working for the Long Island Railroad. (LIRR) The
requesters were concerned that there had been an excess number of birth
defects among the children of these maintenance employees, and that
these defects had been caused by exposure to 2,4,5-trichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4,5-T), a herbicide used for weed control along the
tracks of the LIRR.
,
"',
To assess the possible health hazard, NIOSH investigators*compiled a
list of all live births from 1973 to 1979 among the members of the
Union Local. Medical insurance claims for this list of live births
were obtained from the union health insurance system, and all claims
for problems which may be congenitally related, diagnosed during the
first year of life, were extracted. Comparative data for all major
birth defects combined are for all other defects observed more than
once in the study population, were obtained from the Centers for
Disease Control Metropolitan Atlanta Birth Defects Monitoring system
and/or the Prenatal Collaborative Project.
A total of 170 live births were observed among the study population.
Forty-two of the live births had at least one non-infectious health
problem during the first year of life. All majcr birth defects
combined and inguinal hernia were underrepresented in the study
population (3 observed versus 3.81 expected for major birth defects and
2 observed versus 2.3 expected for inguinal herr.ia). Metatarsus
adductus (8 observed versus 3.47 expected) and tear duct obstruction (2
observed versus 0.22 expected) were both significantly overrepresented
in the study population. However, these latter defects may be
overrepresented in the study population due to diagnostic bias.
No definite excess of birth defects related to 2,4,5-T exposure was
found in the evaluation. Recommendations to control exposure to
2,4,5-T are found in Section VIII of the report.
KEYWORDS:

SIC 4010, birth defects, 2,4,5-T, herbicides

�Page 2 - Health Hazard Evaluation Determination Report No. 80-039

II.

INTRODUCTION
On, November 15, 1979, the Teamsters Local 808, Woodside, Queens, New
York, requested that NIOSH conduct a Health Hazard Evaluation to
assess the frequency of birth defects among the children of Local
808's members who work on maintenance for the Long Island Railroad
(LIRR). The requester was concerned that there has been an excess
number of birth defects and that these defects had been caused by
exposure to 2,4,5-trichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4,5-T) a herbicide
used for weed control:along the tracks of the LIRR.
The NIOSH investigation was intended to ascertain whether or not an
excess number of birth defects occurred in the Teamsters' children.

III. BACKGROUND
A. Exposure
The LIRR maintains a regular program of weed control along its
rights-of-way. The brush spraying program for the years 1974 through
1976 included the spraying in the Spring of 2,4,5-T in down graded
fuel oil or water. Numerous other herbicides have been used for weed
control prior to, during, and since that three year period. All
spraying is performed by contractors with assistance from a small
number of LIRR employees. Additionally, once a year a soil sterilant
is applied along the rights-of-way.
Teamsters Local 808 is composed of approximately 1400 members of whom
approximately 800 are employees of the LIRR and work on track
maintenance. Track maintenance involves routine operations such as
renewing and repairing ties, rails, and road bed switches, and large
scale reworking and rebuilding of the tracks. Approximately 100
other Teamsters work on bridge and building maintenance which
includes rebuilding, repair, and repainting of bridges, buildings,
and platforms.
Through their usual track maintenance activities, the LIRR employees
from this Teamsters local could have contact with the herbicides,
including 2,4,5-T, used for weed control. The exposure would occur
during maintenance activities after spraying had occurred. Because a
variety of herbicides are used in the LIRR spraying program, each
worker has potential for exposure to multiple chemical agents.

�Page 5 - Health Hazard Evaluation Determination Report No. 80-039
VI.

DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
tr

Insurance records provide an accessible data set for the
epidemiologic study of defined populations. In the past, life
insurance records have been used to assess mortality among applicants
with,recorded atrial fibrillation (9). In this investigation, the
health insurance records of the Teamsters were available for an
inital evaluation of problems in the Teamsters' children on the
assumption that serious problems would be noted in an insurance
claim. Conversely, it is possible that insurance claims will provide
a record of medically non-serious problems in the population because
the insurance company requires a diagnosis to be recorded in order
for reimbursement of the fee for a visit to a physician. It is not
unlikely that specific diagnoses were made in marginal circumstances
in order to facilitate compensation by the insurance carrier.
This problem is especially possible in the category of orthopedic
defects as listed in Table 4. Many of the problems noted there did
not have orthopedic follow-up or, even, a second visit to further
assess ..the problem. It might be assumed, then, that the physician
saw what can be described as normal variation in the infant (7,8).
The issue of "minor" defects is also important here. Most birth
defects surveillance systems or studies look only for medically
defined "major," or life threatening defects. In fact, in this
cohort, the number of major defects was about what is expected for
this size population. "Minor" problems are usually described as not
life threatening, and are ususally omitted from reviews of birth
defects because of the variability and subjectivity involved in
diagnosis (5,10). Most of the problems observed here are medically
categorized as "minor." This factor also explains why comparative
data from other surveys of birth defects do not exist for phimosis,
congenital subluxation of the hip, or tibial torsion, even though, in
particular, the two cases of congenitally subluxed hip required
orthopedic follow-up and would not have been considered minor
problems by their families.
With regard to the results of this survey, there is no excess of
"major" birth defects present in this population of Teamsters
children. It is unlikely that serious problems, if they occurred,
wduld have been omitted from the insurance claims. Two "minor"
problems, metatarsus adductus and tear duct obstruction, are present
in significant excess. In the case of metatarsus adductus, this
excess is most Likely explained by diagnostic variability which is
common for "minor" problems, or by the source oc data as described
above which could c'orce a diaimosLS. The excess oc tear ducc

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Page 3 - Health Hazard Evaluation Determination Report 80-039
B.

2,4,5-T:

Use, Chemistry, and Toxic Effects

2,4,5-T is an herbicide effective in broad leaf control. It has been
widely used in the U.S. since the 1940's in forestry, a'griculture,
and for maintenance of railroad and highway rights-of-way. Since
1979, its use has been temporarily and partially suspended by the
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
2,4,5-T is contaminated during its production with variable, although
generally small quantities of the highly toxic compound 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD). Concerns about exposure°to 2,4,5-T
are usually related to the concomitant exposure to TCDD,
• Z:
Assessments of the reproductive effects of both TCDD alone and
2,4,5-T contaminated with TCDD have been carried out in ^Laboratory
animals. Additionally, a number of observations and studies have
been made with human populations. In summary, 2,4,5-T with TCDD
contamination, and TCDD alone, have produced teratogenicj, effects when
female mice were exposed during gestation. Exposure of male mice to
2,4,5-T and TCDD (in addition to 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid
[2,4-D]) resulted in no observable effects in their offspring.
if.
In humans, evidence is inconclusive for reproductive effects after
female exposure to 2,4,5-T, and no definitive studies of'malemediated effects have been conducted (summarized in reference 1 )
..
IV.

METHODS

.!,;.
^• *

A list of all live births among the Teamsters Local 808 members who
work for the LIRR for the years 1975 through 1979 was compiled. The
source of this list was a birth premium list maintained by the union
which awards $100.00 to each union member who has a child| For this
list of live births, insurance claims files were obtained;from Che
union's health insurance system.
.;
, J-.

The insurance claims files for each recorded live birth were reviewed
by a physician. All notations of problems which may be congenitally
related, diagnosed during the first year of life, were extracted.
From the total list of health defects, all "major" defects as
medically defined by the Centers for Disease Control's Metropolitan
Atlanta Birth Defects Monitoring System (2) and/or the Perinatal
Collaborative Project (3) were identified. Comparative data for all
major defects combined, and for all other defects observed more Chan
once in che scuciy population, were, then obtained to ascertain if an
•ixce-ij of any particular problem exists.

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Page 4 --^Health Hazard Evaluation Determination 80-039
•

•

"•

•'•

• " - -

-

•

Data sets utilized for comparative or expected data (Table 5) are the
following:
1. The Metropolitan Atlanta Congenital Defects Program. Jointly
jiirected by'the Centers for Disease Control, The Georgia Mental
'jHealth Inatitiute, and Emory University School of Medicine, this
'lion-go ing &amp; program establishes a case registry- of defects from a
Wdefined geographical region for study ( ) •
4.
2. The Collaborative Perinatal Program. During the years 1959-1965,
•xf;f|»a cohort' of over 50,000 mother-child pairs were recruited in 12
•
•;;S centers' in the U.S. for a study of the possible teiratogenic role
of drugs, arid rates for numerous birth defects were established
-for the entire cohorts (3,5).

Study of Congenital Anomalies in the Newborn Infant, Including
. Minor Variations; From June, 1960 until May, 1962, the 4,412
; | newborn infants born at a hospital in Wisconsin were exam
•''•* birth for defects ' with a focus on minor as well as major defects
•
c

VI. RSULTS
•?•*

Af-total of 170 live births were observed among the Teamsters members
during the years 1975 through 1979. Table 1 presents data on these
births by year and sex.
f
Forty-two of the live births had at least one non-infectious health
problem during the first year of life noted on an insurance claim.
Three are classifiable as "major" defects (Table 2). The remainder
of the health defects (Tables 3 and 4) are classified as "minor," and
are not recognized as congenital problems, especially in the case of
t!he orthopedic problems which can be explained as normal
developmental variation (7,8) or childhood illnesses.
'&gt;,• • % • ' '
Table 5 presents data on the defects observed two or more times among
the study population. All "major" defects combined and inguinal
liernia were observed at a lesser frequency than would be expected.
Metatarsus adductus/varus (8 cases) and tear duct obstruction (2
cases) were both significantly overrepresented in this study
population. Hydrocele is significantly overrepresented in comparison
to, one data set, and underrepresented when compared to another. And
.finally, no comparative data couLd be obtained for phimosis,
congenital subLuxation of the hip, and tibial torsion. Both cases of
congenital hip subLuxation did receive orthopedic follow-up with
correction reported.

�Page 6 - Health Hazard Evaluation Determination Report No. 80-039
obstruction could be explained by diagnostic variability,
underrepresentation in the comparison population, a causal
association, or by chance.
Hydrocele is significantly in excess
when compared to one data set, and underrepresented when compared to
another. This illustrates the problem of ascertainment of "minor"
defects, and variability which can exist in diagnosis.
VII.

CONCLUSIONS DISCUSSION

1. No excess of "major" birth defects is present among Teamsters
children born 1975 - 1979.
2. A significant excess of two "minor" problems, metatarsus adductus
and tear duct obstruction, is present.
VII.

RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Because of other suspected health problems, such as cancer,
associated with exposure to 2,4,5-T and other herbicides, the
exposure of the Teamsters to these substances should be
controlled.
2. Other studies in populations with more clearly defined exposure
data should be conducted to address the question of the
reproductive effects of human exposure to 2,4,5-T.
IX.

REFERENCES

1.

JRB Associates. Review of Literature on Herbicides, Including
Phenoxy Herbicides and Associated Dioxin, Vol. I, 1981.
Veterans Administration Contract Number V10K93) P 823.

2.

Edmonds, L. Personal Communication,

3.

Heinoen, O.P. et al. Birth Defects and Drugs in Pregnancy.
Publishing Sciences Group, Little, Mass., 1977.

4.

Centers for Disease Control. Congenital Malformations
Surveillance Report April 1977 - March 1978, issued November
1978.

5i

Myrianthopoulos N.C., Chung, C.S.
Congenital Malformations in
Singletons: Epidemic Logic Survey. Straccon Intercontinental
Medical Book Corporation, New York and London, L975.

6.

Marden P.M. Congenital Anomali.es in Che Newborn Enfant,
Including Minor Variations. The Journal on" Pediatrics
1964;64:J:357-371.

1980.

�•••'*.•

Page 7 - Health Hazard Evaluation Determination Report No. 80-039
7.

Dunn P. M. Congenital Postural Deformities. British Medical
Bulletin 1976;32:1, 71-75.

8.

Sharrard W.J.W. Pediatric Orthopedics and Fractures. Oxford
and Edinburgh, Blackwell Scientific Publications; 1971.

9.

Gajewski J., Singer RB. Mortality in an Insured Population
with Atrial Fibrillation. JAMA 1981;245:15, 1540-44.

10. Christiansen R.E. The Relationship Between Maternal Smoking
and the Incidence of Congenital Anomalies. American Journal of
Epidemiology 1980;112:5:684-695.

�Page 8 -Health Hazard Evaluation Determination Report No. 80-039

Table I.

Distribution of Live Births in Study Population

Year

Male

Female

Total

1975

13

20

33

1976

20

22

42

1977

14

16

30

1978

19

10

29

1979

11

JL5

36_

87

83

170

Total

�Page 9 - Health Hazard Evaluation Determination Report No 80-039

Table 2:

"Major" Defects

No. in Study
Population

Sex

Year of
Birth

pyloric stenosis

1

male

1976

anal stenosis

1

female

1978

uretero pelvic junction obstruction

1

male

1978

Type

Total

3

�Page 10 - Health Hazard Evaluation Determination Report No. 80-039

Table 3:

"Minor" Health Defects
Miscellaneous

Type

No. in Study Population

gamma globulin deficiency
hyperbilirubinemia
jaundice
labial adhesions
protein intolerance
anorexia
enlargement lymph node

1
1
1
1
1
1
1

anemia

1

meatal ulcer
tear duct obstruction (stenosis)
heart murmer
Erb's Palsy
inadequate weight gain from birth
rectal hypotonia

1
2
1
1
1
1

epicanthus
hydrocele

1
2

inguinal hernia

2

hemangioma (left ear)
phimosis

1
7

�Page 11 - Health Hazard Evaluation Determination Report No. 80-039

Table 4:

"Minor" Health Defects
Orthopedic

No. in Study Population
Type
1
flat foot (pes planus)
1
bilateral hammertoes
slight resistance to abduction
1
congenital subluxation hip
2
7*
tibial torsion (external or internal)
tibia vara
1
metatarsus adductus/varus
9*
1
"inversion of feet"
1
"4 toes rt. adduction foot left leg"
*includes 4 cases of internal tibial torsion in conjunction with metatarsus
adductus/varus

�Page 12 - Health Hazard Evaluation Determination Report No. 80-039
Table 5: Analyses of Defects Occurring More Than Once In
Study Population

Type

Observed #

Expected #

Reference for
Expected #

1-taile'd
Fishers Exact
Test p value

inguinal hernia

2

2.3

(3)

hydrocele

2

0.03
6.17

(3)
(6)

0.0007

3.47

(5)

0.024

(5)

0.021

metatarsus adductus
(varus)
tear duct
obstruction
(stenosis)

2

0.22

phimosis

7

*

congenital subluxation hip
tibial torsion
(external or
internal)
all major
defects**

3.81

()
4

*No comparative, expected data available for these minor defects
** includes pyloric stenosis, anal stenosis, uretero pelvic junction
obstruction

�DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES
PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE
CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH
ROBERT A. TAFT LABORATORIES
4676 COLUMBIA PARKWAY, CINCINNATI. OHIO 45238

OFFICIAL BUSINESS
PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE, $300

Third Class Mail

POSTAGE AND FEES PAID
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HHS
HHS396

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&lt;p&gt;For more about this collection, &lt;a href="/exhibits/speccoll/exhibits/show/alvin-l--young-collection-on-a"&gt;view the Agent Orange Exhibit.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</text>
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