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                    <text>Item ID Number

01868

Author

Shepard, Barclay M.

Corporate Author
ROpOTt/ArUdO TltlB Critique of West Virginia Mortality Study

Journal/Book Title
Year

1986

Month/Day

February 4

Color

a

Number of Images

36

UOSCrtytOn NOtBS

ltem inlcudes

critique, as well as attached 1) M. L.
Neighbors Diversified Maritime Services, Inc.
advertisement and 2) Vietnam-Era Veterans Mortality
Study, West Virginia Residents 1968-1983, Preliminary
Report, January 1986.

Wednesday, July 11, 2001

Page 1869 of 1870

�FEB 04 1986
Critique of West Virginia Mortality Study

The West Virginia Department of Health has recently completed a
mortality study (copy attached) of Vietnam-era veterans based on the
recipients of a state bonus. The State offered a differential bonus
to all West Virginia residents who served in the military during the
Vietnam era with a larger amount going to those who served "incountry". 41,059 in-country (Vietnam veterans) and 41,782 non-incountry (non-Vietnam) veterans received the bonus. The list of bonus
recipients was matched against state vital statistic records
resulting in 1225 male Vietnam-era veterans who had died between 1968
and 1983. For each deceased male veteran a copy of the Report of
Separation From Active Duty (DD 214) was reviewed to determine dates
and place of service. The latter was determined by receipt of at
least one of the three medals awarded for service in the Southeast
Asia theater of operations. In addition, cause of death information
was obtained on each deceased veteran. Of the 1225 deceased
veterans, 615 were in the group of Vietnam veterans and the remaining
610 were non-Vietnam veterans, i.e., veterans who served elsewhere
during the same period of time. When comparing causes of death
between all veterans in the group and non-veterans of similar age
only those classified as accidents, poisoning, and violence were
elevated among the veteran group. Deaths due to cancer were
statistically the same in both groups. Other causes of death were
lower in the veteran group, a commonly observed phenomenon known as
the "healthy veteran effect".
A stated by the authors, the study has a number of limitations which
must be kept in mind when interpreting the results:
"In spite of the intense publicity given to the bonus campaign,
it is likely that many veterans or their survivors never applied
for the bonus. Thus, those veterans who did qualify for a bonus
represent an unknown proportion of the actual number of West
Virginia males'who served in the military during the Vietnam
era. It cannot be assumed that the proportion was similar for
both [groups]. Furthermore, because the mortality tape
identified only residents of West Virginia who died during the
study period, deaths in that period among veterans who no longer
resided in West Virginia at the time of their demise would not
have been counted among the 1,225 veterans deaths ascertained.
. . With respect to a comparison between in-country and era
.
veterans, it cannot be assumed that similar proportions of the
respective candidate population qualified for the bonus or that
the death rates among in-country veterans who were no longer
West Virginia residents were similar to those among era veterans
who were no longer residents."

�There were 145 cancer deaths of which 71 were in the group of
Vietnam veterans and 74 were among the non-Vietnam veterans. In
comparing specific types of cancers between these two veteran
groups, only Hodgkin's disease, testicular cancer, and soft tissue
sarcoma were elevated in the Vietnam veteran group. In each
instance, however, the number of actual cases was small, i.e., 5
cases of Hodgkin's disease, 3 testicular cancers and 3 soft tissue
sarcomas. As the authors state: "These findings must be
interpreted cautiously ... since ... the site- specific cancer
deaths were derived from a relatively small number . . and would
.
therefore be subject to ... large random fluctuations".
In addition to the stated limitations of the study, as pointed out
by the authors, there has been no systematic review of military
personnel records, except for the DD 214 reviews as noted above, to
validate the Vietnam service status of the study subjects. Because
of the interest and concern over the relationship between soft
tissue sarcoma and exposure to the phenoxy herbicides, the authors
have now requested a review of the personnel records of the 3
veterans recorded as having this diagnosis. All.three of these were
reported to have occurred in the in-country veteran group. The
first of these is now known to have served in Thailand, not Vietnam,
and would not have been exposed to Agent Orange. This is an example
of the serious effect of misclassification especially when dealing
with small numbers of subjects. In addition, there has been no
systematic review of hospital or other clinical records to validate
cause of death information or confirm the specific cancer diagnosis.
Again, when dealing with relatively small numbers, a few errors in
diagnosis can significantly alter the conclusions.
In summary, this study appears to have been well designed and well
conducted as far as it goes. As noted by the authors, however, it
has inherent limitations and additional data are needed to validate
some of the conclusions.

BARCLAY M. SHEPARD, M.D.

Director, Agent Orange Projects Office

�«J£.

tLAet&amp;Ad&amp;Ht-

1 January 1986
ANNOUNCEMENT
M. L. NEIGHBORS, DIVERSIFIED MARITIME SERVICES, INC., announces
that it is now able to offer part time consultative service or
representation in the Washington, DC area to additional firms or
persons that are engaged or have an interest in maritime related
business ventures or business involving the disposal of chemical
waste. Such work may also be arranged for in locations other than
the Washington DC area as mutually agreed, and on either a prime or
sub-contract basis.
Among services offered are:
A. Maintaining continuous contact with federal agencies
having jurisdiction or control over maritime or chemical waste
disposal ventures, and submittal of reports on matters of client
interest. Rapid "feed-back" on specific information of more
urgent interest can also be provided.
B. Projection of U.S. chemical waste disposal requirements,
in general or with specificity.
C. Assisting in the initiation of either a maritime project
or a project involving chemical waste disposal (except services
involving the disposal of chemical waste by incineration at sea
cannot be provided until after 30 November, 1986).
CORPORATE EXPERIENCE INCLUDES:
Nineteen years involvement with Department of Defense vessel
charters and military cargo movement contracts.
Thirteen years involvement with various offices of the
Environmental Protection Agency that are responsible for
regulating chemical waste disposal. This work included interaction with other federal agencies and with commercial firms
offering alternative types of chemical waste disposal service.
Written inquiries should be addressed to M. L. Neighbors, DMS
Inc., 777 Fourteenth St., Suite 747, Washington, DC, 20005.
Further information may also be obtained from Mr. Neighbors at
phone number 564 1568 (area code 301 if calling from outside
metro area).

�WEST VIRGINIA HEALTH DEPARTMENT

�VIETNAM-ERA VETERANS MORTALITY STUDY
WEST VIRGINIA RESIDENTS

1968 - 1983

Preliminary Report

January 1986

Arch A. Moore, Jr.
Governor

David K. Heydinger, M.D.
Director, Department of Health

�Alan P. Holmes, B.S.E.E., M.B.A.
Principal Investigator

WEST VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH
VIETNAM-ERA VETERANS MORTALITY STUDY COMMITTEE

Charles Bailey
Assistant Director, Health Statistics Center
Roy C. Baron, M.D., M.P.H.
Medical Epidemiologist
Edward Bosanac, Ph.D.
Research Consultant
John Brough, Dr. P.H.
Director, Preventive Health Services
Charles Conroy, M.A.
Agent Orange Program Coordinator
Acting Director, Community Health Services
Loretta Haddy, M.A., M.S.
State Epidemiologist
Alan P. Holmes, M.B.A.
Director, Health Statistics Center

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Sandra Y. Pope, Administrative Assistant, Agent Orange Program
Eugenia Thoenen, Publications Coordinator, Health Statistics Center
Thomas N. Leonard, Programmer/Analyst, Health Statistics Center
Betty Jo Berry, Secretary, Health Statistics Center
We would also like to thank Col. John W. Moon and the staff of
, the West Virginia Department of Veterans' Affairs for their
invaluable assistance in providing data used in this study.

For further information, contact
Charles Conroy, Agent Orange Program Coordinator
1800 Washington Street, East
Charleston, WV 25305
Telephone: (304) 348-3210

�Vietnam-Era Veterans Mortality Study
West Virginia Residents 1968-1983

The Agent Orange Assistance Program, established in 1982 by
the West Virginia legislature, requested the Health Statistics
Center of the Department of Health to conduct a study of the
causes of death among state Vietnam veterans from 1968 through
1983.*

The purpose of the study was to compare the mortality

pattern among veterans with that of nonveterans

in order to

generate hypotheses regarding any differences in the causes of
death among the former. A comparison of the causes of death among
veterans who served in Vietnam with those among veterans who did
not serve in Vietnam was also undertaken in order to speculate
whether

the Vietnam

experience

might

be

associated

with a

distinct mortality pattern.

METHODS

Identification of West Virginia Veterans

West Virginia residents who served in the military during
the years of the Vietnam Conflict were identified from the list

*The Vietnam era is generally defined as extending from 1964
until 1973. For the purposes of this study, however, only those
deaths from 1968 were considered because of the small number of
deaths occurring before that year, in addition to difficulties
imposed by cause-of-death coding changes over the longer
interval.

�of applicants for a military service bonus offered by the state
Department of Veterans' Affairs in 1974.

To qualify for a bonus,

veterans had to meet the following criteria:
1) they must have rendered active service in the armed
forces at some time between August 1, 1964, and March
28, 1973, inclusive, or have been recipients of the
Vietnam armed forces expeditionary medal if they saw
active service prior to August 1;
2) they must have been residents of West Virginia for at
least six months prior to entry into active service;
3) they must have actively served for a period of at least
ninety days unless discharged because of a servicerelated disability, and
4) they must have been honorably discharged.
Efforts to notify eligible veterans or their survivors about
the bonus program included one national public awareness campaign
conducted in November 1975 and one conducted in July 1976.
Public service announcements were issued over the television
networks, and notices were posted in every major newspaper in the
country

and

organizations

on

service

advertised

networks

the

bonus

overseas.
legislation

Veterans'
in

their

publications, and some offered assistance in filing for the bonus
as a promotional device in their membership campaigns.

Three different bonuses were offered. Veterans who did not
serve in Vietnam

("out-of-country" or era veterans) were to

receive up to $300 (Type 3 bonus); Vietnam veterans ("in-country"
veterans) were

to receive

up to $400

(Type 4 bonus), and

surviving relatives of veterans who died while in the service
during the period designated by the legislature were to receive

�$500 (Type 5 bonus).

In West Virginia,

the Department

of Veterans'

reported a total of 86,247 initial applicants.

Affairs

Of those who

applied for the bonus, 83,730 veterans or survivors (97%) were
eligible (Figure 1).

Of these, 41,782 qualified for the Type 3

(Vietnam-era) bonus, 41,059 qualified for the Type 4 (Vietnam)
bonus, and 889 qualified for the Type 5 bonus.

Since this was to

be a study of mortality following discharge from the service, the
Type 5 bonus recipients were excluded from subsequent analyses.
Names of the Type 3 and Type 4 qualifiers were, entered onto a
computer tape, referred to as the "bonus tape."

Identification of Veteran and Nonveteran Deaths

A complete listing of West Virginia resident deaths from
1968 through 1983 was prepared from records maintained by the
Health Statistics Center and entered onto a "mortality tape."
The

names

on

this

list were then compared with those on the

bonus tape in order to identify veterans who died during this
period.

For deaths from 1968 through 1978, the information had

to be matched by name since social security numbers were not
included on the mortality tape for these years.

Any possible

match generated in this manner was searched by hand and confirmed
by comparing the social security number on the death certificate
with that on the veteran application.

From 1979 through 1983, it

was possible to match by social security number.

�FIGURE 1
WV VIETNAM VETERAN MORTALITY STUDY
SELECTION OF STUDY POPULATION
1968-83

Bonus Tape
83,730

1

1

1
In -Country
Vietnam
41,059

Not-in-Country
Era
41,782

No-Match
Death File
41,169

Females

Era
3

Nonwhite
Males
Era
30

MatchedDeath File
Era
613

Males
Era
610

White
Males
Era
580

No-Match
Death File
40,444

Died in
Service
889

MatchedDeath File
Vietnam
615

Females
Vietnam
0

Males
Vietnam
615

Nonwhite
Males
Vietnam
36

White
Males
Vietnam
579

�There were 1,234 initial matches between the bonus tape and
the mortality tape, 614 Vietnam-era (Type 3) veterans and 620
in-country

(Type

4) veterans.

The veterans' discharge forms

(DD-214s) were then manually checked to verify their in-country
status.*

This

review

reclassification

of

resulted

several

in

records,

the

deletion

leaving

1,228

and/or
deceased

veterans who qualified, 613 for the Type 3 bonus and 615 for the
Type 4 bonus.

Three of the deceased veterans, all Type 3 bonus

recipients, were female.

They were excluded from the final tape;

the subsequent analyses included only deceased male veterans.

Of the 1,225 male veterans who died (Table 1), 1,159 were
white and 66 were nonwhite (65 black and 1 Hawaiian).
nonwhite veterans were Type 3 (5%) and 36 were Type 4

Thirty
(6%).

Because nonwhite veterans constituted a small percentage of those
who died, the study combined the mortality patterns of white and
nonwhite veterans.

For

nonveteran males,

deaths were

identified

from the

mortality tape by deleting the records of all remaining female
deaths and those of the 1,225 male veteran deaths.
thus four groups defined for analysis:
died; (2) male

Vietnam-era-only

There were

(1) all male veterans who

(Type 3)

veterans

who

died;

*In-country status was determined by the receipt by the
veteran of one of three service medals (the Vietnam service medal,
the Vietnam campaign medal, or the Vietnam expeditionary medal) as
noted on the DD-214. These medals were awarded to military
personnel who served in the Southeast Asia theater of operations.

�TABLE 1
TYPE 3 AND TYPE 4
MATCHES BETWEEN BONUS TAPE AND MORTALITY TAPE
BY YEAR
1968-83

YEAR

VIETNAM-ERA
(Type 3)

IN-COUNTRY
(Type 4)

TOTAL

1968

4

13

17

1969

14

16

30

1970

17

22

39

1971

16

33

49

1972

26

31

57

1973

33

22

55

1974

25

29

54

1975

50

47

97

1976

47

46

93

1977

50

40

90

1978

54

35

89

1979

53

44

97

1980

58

51

109

1981

53

70

123

1982

55

59

114

1983

56

56

112

TOTAL

610

615

1,225

�(3) male in-country (Type 4) Vietnam veterans who died, and (4)
all

other West

Virginia

males

(nonveterans) who

died

from

1968-83.

DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF DECEASED VETERANS

Age Distribution

The average age at death was 35.3 for all veterans, 35.1 for
era veterans and 35.4 for in-country veterans.

Table 2 shows

that the distribution of deaths by age for Type 3 and Type 4
veterans was similar.

Tables 3 and 4 present the distributions of age at death by
race for Vietnam-era and Vietnam veterans, respectively.

Among

white Type 3 veterans, the average age at death was 35.3, among
nonwhites 31.3. For Type 4 veterans, the mean age at death for
whites was 35.5, with 33.5 that for nonwhites.

�TABLE 2
ALL VIETNAM-ERA VETERANS
Age Distribution by Type of Service

VIETNAM-ERA
(Type 3)

TOTAL

IN- COUNTRY
(Type 4)

AGE GROUP

f

%

%

*

4

I

15-19

4

0.7

1

0.2

5

0.4

20-24

82

13.4

92

14.9

174

14.2

25-29

139

22.8

125

20.3

264

21.5

30-34

137

22.4

143

23.2

280

22.9

35-39

83

13.6

61

9.9

144

11.7

40-44

42

6.9

53

8.6

95

7.7

45-49

36

5.9

60

9.8

96

7.8

50-54

40

6.6

33

5.4

73

6.0

55-59

24

3.9

32

5.2

56

4.6

60-64

12

2.0

12

2.0

24

2.0

65-69

9

1.5

3

0.5

12

1.0

70-74

2

0.3

0

0.0

2

0.2

TOTAL

610

100.0

615

100.0

1,225

100.0

Average Age
at Death

35.4

35.1

8

35.3

�TABLE 3
VIETNAM-ERA VETERANS (TYPE 3)
Age Distribution by Race

WHITE

TOTAL

NONWHITE

AGE GROUPS

%

#

%

#

%

1

19

4

0.7

0

0.0

4

0.7

20-24

77

13.3

5

16.7

82

13.4

25-29

131

22.6

8

26.7

139

22.8

30-34

127

21.9

10

33.3

137

22.4

35-39

79

13.6

4

13.3

83

13.6

40-44

42

7.2

0

0.0

42

6.9

45-49

33

5.7

3

10.0

36

5.9

50-54

40

6.8

0

0.0

40

6.6

55-59

24

4.2

0

0.0

24

3.9

60-64

12

2.1

0

0.0

12

2.0

65-69

9

1.6

0

0.0

9

1.5

70-74

2

0.3

0

0.0

2

0.3

TOTAL

580

100.0

30

100.0

610

100.0

Average Age
at Death

35.3

31.3

35.1

�TABLE 4
IN-COUNTRY VIETNAM VETERANS (TYPE 4)
Age Distribution by Race

NONWHITE

WHITE

TOTAL

AGE GROUPS

%

#

#

%

t

Z

19

0

0.0

1

2.8

1

0.2

20-24

87

15.0

5

13.8

92

14.9

25-29

114

19.7

11

30.5

125

20.3

30-34

135

23.3

8

22.2

143

23.2

35-39

59

10.2

2

5.6

61

9.9

40-44

51

8.8

2

5.6

53

8.6

45-49

59

10.2

1

2.8

60

9.8

50-54

29

5.0

4

11.1

33

5.4

55-59

30

5.2

2

5.6

32

5.2

60-64

12

2.1

0

0.0

12

2.0

65-69

3

0.5

0

0.0

3

0.5

70-74

0

0.0

0

0.0

0

0.0

TOTAL

579

100.0

36

100.0

615

100.0

Average Age
at Death

35.5

33.5

10

35.4

�Branch of Service

Review of the DD-214 forms showed that 718 (59%) of the
deceased veterans had served in the army, 210 (17%) had served in
the air force, 167* (14%) had served in the navy, and 120 (10%)
had served in the marines (Table 5).

Seventy-five percent of the

in-country veterans who died had been in either the army or the
marines, in contrast to 62% of the era veterans.

Twenty-five

percent of in-country veterans had served in either the air force
or the navy, in contrast to 37% of, the era veterans.

For 10

veterans, the branch of service was not recorded on the discharge
forms.

*Includes 3 coast guard veterans.

11

�TABLE 5
ALL VIETNAM-ERA VETERANS
Branch of Service by Type of Service
VIETNAM-ERA
(Type 3)

IN-COUNTRY
(Type 4)

TOTAL

BRANCH OF SERVICE

%

*

t

%

*

%

Army

340

55.7

378

61.5

718

58.6

Air Force

127

20.8

83

13.5

210

17.2

16.1

69

11.2

167

13.6

Navy

98*

Marines

39

6.4

81

13.2

120

9.8

Unknown

6

1.0

4

0.6

10

0.8

610

100.0

615

100.0

TOTAL

*Includes
3 coast
guard
veterans

12

1,225

100.0

�ANALYTIC METHODS

In

spite

of

the

intense publicity

given to the bonus

campaign, it is likely that many veterans or their
never

applied

for the bonus.

survivors

Thus, those veterans

who did

qualify for a bonus represent an unknown proportion of the actual
number of West Virginia males who served in the military during
the Vietnam era.

It cannot be assumed that the proportion was

similar for both Type 3 (era) and Type 4 (in-country) qualifiers.
Furthermore, because the mortality tape identified only residents
of West Virginia who died during the study period, deaths in that
period among veterans who no longer resided in West Virginia at
the time of their demise would not have been counted among the
1,225 veteran deaths ascertained.

Because of these limitations, the records provide neither
complete information about the total candidate population nor a
comprehensive

estimate

of the force

veterans who did qualify.
the

veteran

and

the

of mortality

among

the

With respect to a comparison between
nonveteran

groups,

the

data

would

underestimate the relative force of mortality among the veterans,
if such a comparison were made.

With respect to a comparison

between in-country and era veterans, it cannot be assumed that
similar

proportions

of

the

respective

candidate population

qualified for the bonus or that the death rates among in-country
veterans who were no longer West Virginia residents were similar
to those among era veterans who were no longer residents.

13

�The method of choice for a study of mortality when there is
incomplete data on the population at risk is a proportionate
mortality analysis.

In this type of study the proportion of all

deaths due to the disease(s) of interest in the study population
is

compared with

the proportion of all deaths due to the

disease(s) of interest in the comparison (referent) population.
Such proportional rates do not express the risk of dying from a
disease since the incidence is not measured against a population
base.

They simply suggest that there may be a difference worth

investigating further.

The validity of such a study rests on the

assumption that there is no association between the study factor,
i.e.,

veteran

status, and the occurrence of other diseases.

Since we cannot make this assumption, such an analysis is used to
generate hypotheses or to conduct preliminary tests of etiologic
hypotheses without collecting much additional data.

The relationship between the proportion of deaths due to a
specified cause in a study population and the proportion derived
from the referent population is expressed as a proportionate
mortality ratio (PMR).

The PMRs in this study are standardized

to adjust for selected confounding variables.

When the veteran

group and its subgroups were compared with the nonveteran group,
adjustments were made by stratifying on age at death by 5-year
intervals (15-19, 20-24, . . . etc.) and on year of death by
2-year intervals
stratum,

(1968-69, 1970-71,

expected deaths were

. . . 1982-83).

For each

calculated by determining

the

percentage the cause of death of interest contributed to all

14

�causes in the referent population and multiplying this result by
the total deaths from all causes in the study population.

The

standardized PMR statistic (sPMR) is the ratio of the number of
deaths of interest observed in the study population summed over
all strata, multiplied by 100, and then divided by the expected
values summed over all strata.

Stratification by age only and

not by year of death was done when the in-country (study) group
of veterans was compared to the era (referent) group.

This was

done in order to avoid losing data from the study group when
respective strata in the referent group had no deaths.

An sPMR

greater than 100 indicates that the cause of interest contributes
a greater percentage of all deaths in the study population than
in the referent population; an sPMR less than 100 indicates that
the cause contributes a smaller percentage of all deaths in the
study population than in the referent population, and an sPMR of
100 indicates that the cause of interest contributes the same
percentage of all deaths in both groups.
expected frequencies
against

confidence
p-value

for each cause of interest were tested

the null hypothesis, i.e.,

proportionate

mortality

interval

expressing

The observed and

structure,

around
the

each

each

exact

sPMR

by

group has the same
calculating

a

95%

and also a one-tailed

probability

of

finding

the

difference between the observed and expected frequencies.
RESULTS

In the period 1968 through 1983, there were 1,225 deaths
among males who had served in the military during the Vietnam

15

�Conflict.

Six hundred fifteen of the men served at least a

portion of their duty in Vietnam (in-country, Type 4 veterans)
and 610 had no experience in Vietnam (era, Type 3 veterans). For
both groups combined, 716 deaths (58%) were from external causes
(injury from accidents, poisoning, or violence), 237 (19%) were
from

cardiovascular

neoplasms,

48

(4%)

disease,
were

145

from

(12%)

were

nonmalignant

from
diseases

malignant
of the

gastrointestinal system, 24 (2%) were from nonmalignant diseases
of

the

respiratory

system,

5

(-=1%) were

from allergic,

metabolic, and endocrine disorders, and 50 (4%) were from all
other causes.

With nonveteran West Virginia male deaths from 1968 through
1983 as a reference, Table 6 demonstrates the number of observed
and

expected

deaths

in

each

cause-of-death category for all

veterans together and for in-country and era veterans separately.
For all veterans, the observed distribution of deaths over these
categories was significantly different from the expected (Chi
square

Goodness

of

Fit •» 50.2

with

6 degrees of

freedom,

p&lt;10~8).

Accidents,
significantly

poisoning,

greater

and

proportion

violence
of

accounted

all veteran

for

a

deaths than

expected (sPMR excess), while deaths from allergic, metabolic,
and endocrine conditions and from all other causes accounted for
significantly smaller-than-expected
deaths

(sPMR

deficits).

For

16

proportions of all veteran

cardiovascular, digestive, and

�TABLE 6
ALL CAUSES OF MORTALITY
Vietnam Veterans vs. Nonveterans
West Virginia, 1968-83
ALL VETERANS
vs.
NONVETERANS

IN- COUNTRY VETERANS
vs.
NONVETERANS

ALL CAUSES

°/.
Accidents, Poisoning,
and Violence
(80E9)
E0-99

716,
'626.74

Cardiovascular Disease
(9-5)
3049

237,
'251.5

Malignant Neoplasms
(140-209)

sPMR

(95Z CI)

°/
'E

sPMR

ERA VETERANS
vs.
NONVETERANS

(95Z CI)

°
/

sPMR

(95Z CI)

(106-130)

354,
'318.1

111*

(100-124)

'E

(106-123)

362.
'308.6

117**

94

(83-107)

114,
'129.1

88

(73-106)

123,
'122.4

100

(84-120)

145,
'142.4

102

(86-120)

71,
'73.6

96

(75-122)

74,
'88
6.

108

(85-136)

Diseases of the
Digestive System
(520-577)

48,
'56.7

85

(62-112)

29,
'29.0

100

(67-144)

19,
'27.8

68

(41-107)

Diseases of the
Respiratory System
(460-519)

24.
'29
3.

73

(47-108)

12,
'16.7

72

(37-125)

12,
'16.2

74

(38-129)

38*

(10-96)

52**

(33-77)

114**

y

Allergic, Metabolic,
and Endocrine Diseases
(240-279)
All Other Causes
(Residual)

'19
2.

50.
'29
9.

23**

(7-53)

'll.2

9**

(-=1-47)

'06
1.

54**

(40-71)

26.
'68
4.

56**

(36-81)

24,
'61
4.

Goodness of Fit X2. -50.2
odt
p- 1 '
08
*polsson p value*.05
**poisson p value£.001

�respiratory diseases, the standardized proportionate mortality
ratios were less than unity when all veterans were compared with
nonveterans,

but

the

observed

numbers

of

deaths

in these

categories were not significantly lower than the expected.
proportion of veteran

The

deaths due to malignant neoplasms was

similar to that of nonveterans.

The pattern

of death

for

in-country

and era

veterans

evaluated separately relative to the nonveteran population was
similar in both instances to the pattern observed for the groups
combined.

In a separate contrast with era veteran deaths as the

standard (not shown), no difference was. observed in the overall
mortality pattern between in-country and era veterans (Chi square
Goodness of

Fit = 7.0 with

5 degrees

of

freedom, p - .22).

In order to evaluate more specific causes of death within
the leading categories, the contrasts were repeated to obtain
standardized proportionate category-specific mortality ratios for
external causes (injury), cardiovascular diseases, and malignant
neoplasms separately.

Table 7 shows the distribution of injury

deaths for veterans contrasted with nonveterans over five causes:
motor vehicle accidents, non-motor-vehicle accidents, suicide,
homicide, and all other external causes.

Homicide accounted for

a significantly smaller-than-expected proportion of the injury
deaths among veterans.

The standardized proportionate injury

mortality ratio for motor-vehicle-related deaths among veterans
was greater than 100 but was not a statistically significant

18

�TABLE 7
INJURY MORTALITY
Vietnam Veterans vs. Nonveterans
West Virginia, 1968-83
ALL VETERANS
vs.
NONVETERANS
°
/

sPMR

(95Z CD

315,
'9.
206

108

(97-121)

201,
'0.
293

96

(83-110)

104

(85-125)

ACCIDENTS. POISONING,
AND VIOLENCE
(E800-999)
Motor Vehicle
(E810-E825)
Ron-Motor Vehicle
(E800-E809,
E826-E949)
Suicide
(E9SO-E9S9)
HoBiclde
(E960-E969)
All Other Causes
(E970-E999)

IN-COUNTRY VETERANS
vs.
NONVETERANS

'E

111

'107.2
63.
'81.5

77*

(59-99)

26.
'74
2.

95

(62-139)

Goodness of Fit X^.--6.78

P-.15
*poisson p value-=.05

sPMR

107

(115
9-2)

100,
'105.1

95

(77-116)

111

(85-144)

sPMR

(95Z CI)

154.
'4.
105

110

(318
9-2)

101,
'0.
142

97

(79-118)

/
'54.2

96

(72-126)

35,
'14
4.

85

(59-118)

87

(45-152)

(95Z CI)

161,
'5.
101

ERA VETERANS
vs.
NONVETERANS

°'E
/

5
9

/
'53.0

28.
'02
4.
1
4

/
'13.6

70*

103

(46-101)

(56-173)

Goodness of Fit XJ^-5.43

P-.25

°'E
/

5
2

12

/
'38
1.

Goodness of Fit X2df-2.71

p-,61

�excess.

For non-motor-vehicle fatalities, suicide, and all other

causes, the expected numbers were similar to the observed.

The

overall pattern for veterans was not significantly different from
nonveterans (Chi square Goodness of Fit » 6.78 with 4 degrees of
freedom, p =.15).

Separate comparisons of the in-country and era

veteran populations

with

nonveterans

similarly

overall difference in the distribution

reflected no

of injury deaths; the

ratios in each of these contrasts were similar to those observed
for the combined veteran group.

Among the cardiovascular causes of mortality
there

were

no

veteran

deaths

from

either

(Table 8),

hypertension or

rheumatic heart disease (p-=.005), fewer-than-expected veteran
deaths from cerebrovascular disease (difference not significant),
and

more-than-expected veteran deaths due to ischemic heart

disease

(difference

standardized

not

significant).

proportionate

cardiovascular

The

individual

disease

mortality

ratios for in-country and era veterans were similar to the
corresponding mortality ratios derived for the combined group.

Proportionate cancer mortality ratios comparing veterans to
nonveterans are shown in Table 9.
veterans

and

respiratory

the
system

nonveteran

excess

contributed

population,

accounted

proportion of veteran cancer
by

In the comparison between all

for

deaths

in-country

identical to that contributed by

20

a

era

neoplasms

significantly
than

of

greater

expected.

veterans
veterans.

was

the

The

virtually

Melanoma of

�TABLE 8
CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE MORTALITY
Vietnam Veterans vs. Nonveterans
West Virginia, 1968-83
ALL VETERANS
vs.
NONVETERANS
CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES
(390-459)
Ischemic Heart Disease
(410-414)

Cerebrovascular Disease
(430-438)

°/.

sPMR

(95Z CI)

158.
'141.5

112

(95-131)

18,
'50
2.

72

(43-114)

Hypertension
(400-405)

°65
'.

Rheumatic Heart Disease
(390-398)

°/5.4

All Other
Cardiovascular Diseases
(415-429, 440-459)

IN-COUNTRY VETERANS
vs.
NONVETERANS

61

'86
5.

0**

0**

104

*poisson p valuer .05
**poisson p value «.005

°/

'E

sPMR

(95Z CI)

°'E
/

sPMR

(952 CI)

/
'67.7

111

(87-139)

83,
'40
7.

112

(89-139)

73

(32-144)

10,
'40
1.

71

(34-131)

75

8

/
'09
1.

-

°/3.4

0*

-

°&gt;1.9

0

/
'30.2

103

(80-134)

ERA VETERANS
vs.
NONVETERANS

31

-

°/3.0

0*

-

°/3.5

0*

(70-146)

30

'84
2.

106

-

(71-151)

�TABLH. »
CANCER MORTALITY

Vietnam Veteran* vs. Nonveterans
West Virginia. 1968-83
IN-COUNTRY VETERANS
vs.
NONVETERANS

ALL VETERANS
vs.
NONVETERANS
MALIGNANT NEOPLASMS
(140-209)

sPHR

(951 CD

135*

(102-174)

123

(91-162)

462*

(6-9)
1897

21,
'69
2.

78

(819
4-1)

12,
'.
66

182*

(94-318)

79

(38-145)

6

128

(46-276)

7

123

(50-254)

°&gt;E

Respiratory System
"4.
'31
(160-163)
Trachea, Bronchus, 50
and Lung
'07
4.
(162)
Larynx
(161)
Digestive Organs
and Peritoneum
(150-159)

to
to

Malignant Melanoma
of the Skin
(172)
Lymphoms
(200-203, 208-209)

'13
'.

10

/
'12.7

Hodgklns Disease
(201)

/4.7

Hale Genital Organs
(185-187)
Leukemia
(204-207)

&gt;,.7

6

/13.1

3

/0.7

%

sPHR

(951 CD

131*

(87-187)

29,
'09
2.

139*

(93-199)

118

(76-174)

25.
'19.5

128

(83-189)

49
2*

(95-1349)

49
2*

(95-1349)

77

(37-142)

% 7
.

4

148

(40-378)

%9
.

205*

(89-406)

7

&gt;6.2

113

(45-233)

% 4
.

47

(10-136)

% 4
.

208

(69-497)

&gt;/2.4

42

(1-233)

4

182

(49-461)

%*
.

83

(18-254)

(17-100)

3

48

(10-139)

V.

44

(9-129)

(36-334)

2

/1.4

143

(17-508)

2

118

(5-435)

(11-102)

'41
/.

24

(-1-137)

3

51

(10-148)

250

(52-731)

% 7
.

429*

(90-1271)

200

(5-1071)

46*

129

*/10

Soft and Connective
Tissue
(171)

3

Bone
(170)

2

/K4

143

(18-531)

Urinary Organs
(188-189)

2

/5.6

36

(4-129)

/15.6

103

(59-166)

16

/
'21.2

(951 CD

10,
'13.0

Brain i Nervous System
(191-192)

All Other Halfgnancle.

25

sPNR

(911
3-4)

4

/1.2

29,
'22.2

NONVETERANS

79

Oral Cavity
(140-149)

&gt;3.1

°&gt;E

ERA VETERANS

40*

•polaaon p value*.05

11,
'14.0

/2.7

/2.2

/6.3

'05
'.

V,

'77
'.

0*

78

/1.7
/5.9

°OS
'.

V
.
2

-

(29-170)

'.
27

' ,
V

0

-

125

(3-663)

74

(10-305)

127

360-231)

�TABLE 10
CANCER MORTALITY FOR VIETNAM VETERANS

In-Country Veterans vs. Era Veterans
West Virginia, 1968-83

OBSERVED,
'EXPECTED
Respiratory System
(160-163)

(95Z CI)

93

(63-134)

NS

110

(55-197)

NS

7

280

(113-577)

0.014

5

833

(271-1945)

0.0004

222

(62-579)

NS

500

(103-1461)

0.023

(12-118)

0.066

-

-

29,
'31.0

n
Digestive Organs and Peritoneum
(150-159)
Lymphoma
(200-203. 208-209)

to

Hodgklns Disease
(201)

POISSON p VALUE
(Fisher's exact)

sPMR

/
'10.0
'2.5

'.
06

U)

Male Genital Organs
(185-187)

*!.
/.

Cancer of the Testls
(186)

V
.

Malignant Melanoma of the Skin
(172)

VT

46

Soft and Connective Tissue
(171)

\

oo

Leukerolas
(204-207)

3

Oral Cavity
(140-149)

2
/

All Others

/1.9

2.4

8

/
'12.7

158

(33-461)

NS

83

(10-301)

NS

63

(27-124)

NS

�the skin also accounted for a significantly greater-than-expected
proportion

of

cancer

deaths

among

all

veterans,

but

the

contribution of in-country veterans to this excess was trivial in
comparison with that of era veterans.

Deaths from leukemias and

malignant neoplasms of the nervous system each occurred less
frequently than expected among both veteran groups.
tissue tumors,

For soft

a significant difference between observed and

expected deaths was not found for all veterans combined.

These

tumors occurred only among in-country veterans and not among era
veterans,

however.

When

in-country

veterans

alone

were

contrasted with nonveterans, they had a significantly elevated
standardized proportionate cancer mortality .ratio for soft tissue
tumors.

The

contrast between

in-country and era veteran cancer

deaths shows the difference in the observed (3) and expected (0)
soft

tissue

tumors

for

in-country

veterans

(Table

10).

In-country veterans also have significantly elevated standardized
proportionate
contrasted

cancer

with

era

mortality

ratios

veterans.

The

for

lymphoma

difference

is

when
more

specifically attributable to Hodgkin's disease, for which there
were five deaths in this group, compared with an expected 0.6.
Finally, there was a statistically significant excess in the sPMR
from testicular cancer among the in-country veterans.
Discussion
The present study demonstrates that the mortality experience

24

�among persons who served in the military during the Vietnam
Conflict differs substantially from that of nonveterans.

It also

suggests that there may be important differences between the
veterans who served in Vietnam and those who did not with respect
to their cancer mortality experience.

Differences in the mortality experience between veteran and
nonveteran groups are influenced by a selection bias initiated at
the time of induction to the military service.
assure

that healthy

individuals

In order to

serve in the military,

the

preinduction screening process excludes persons with preexisting
conditions

such

as

diabetes and

allergies, asthma, hypertension,

have

substantially

metabolic

disorders,

rheumatic heart disease, and

clinically apparent malignancies.
veterans

other

lower

Because of this selection,
mortality

rates

than the

nonveteran population for many years following their induction.
This is known as the "healthy veteran effect."

In the present

study, this selection bias is the most plausible hypothesis to
account for the significant sPMR deficits observed among veterans
for mortality from allergic, metabolic, and endocrine disorders,
all

other causes, rheumatic heart disease, and hypertension.

Moreover, it may also have contributed to the less prominently
diminished sPMRs among veterans for cardiovascular,

digestive,

and respiratory diseases.

While

real

differences

in the mortality

rates

between

veteran and nonveteran groups for selected causes are reflected

25

�in

the

sPMRs,

proportionate

they

also

mortality

complicate the
for

other

interpretation

causes.

Since

of
the

proportionate contribution from all separate causes must sum to
100, the proportionate contributions

among "healthy" veterans

from causes that are not screened by the induction process become
artificially inflated relative to their contribution among the
"unhealthy" population.

Injury, the leading cause of death for both veterans and
nonveterans, played a significantly greater role among veterans,
accounting for 58% of their deaths as opposed to an expected 51%.
Since the study did not adjust for discrepancies in the health
status between veterans and nonveterans, part of the excess in
injury among veterans must be due to the relative absence of
deaths from conditions that would exclude persons from military
service.

While an excess of these deaths araong nonveterans

reciprocally

diminishes

the

proportion

of

their mortality

attributable to injury, there may be a real difference in life
style

and

the

propensity

veterans and nonveterans.

for

risk-taking

behavior

between

An evaluation of injury mortality

alone, performed to eliminate distortion from the healthy veteran
bias, showed only that homicide was significantly less important
as

a

cause

nonveterans.

of

injury

death

among

veterans

than

On the other hand, while not significant,

among
the

difference between the observed and expected number of veteran
deaths from motor-vehicle accidents would suggest that this is at
least one area where veterans may be at a substantially greater

26

�risk

of death than nonveterans.

This

issue, however,

and

previous assertions that veterans are at greater risk of death
from suicide cannot be adequately addressed by this analysis in
the absence of more complete data on the populations at risk.

While

malignancies

as

a

group

accounted

for

similar

proportions of veteran and nonveteran deaths, deaths from tumors
of the respiratory system were a significantly more prominent
cause of cancer death among veterans than among nonveterans.
probable

explanation

for

this

finding

would

be

A

a greater

prevalence of smoking among military as compared with nonmilitary
personnel, but this cannot be substantiated from the limited
information available on death certificates.

In general, the pattern of death among in-country veterans
from all causes, and within the subcategories of "accidents,
poisoning, and violence" and "cardiovascular diseases," were
similar to those observed for all veterans combined, and there
were no substantial differences in the mortality patterns between
in-country and era veterans for these categories.

Among cancer

deaths, however, there was strong statistical evidence to suggest
that .Hodgkin's disease, cancer of the testis, and soft tissue
tumors were more common among veterans who served in Vietnam than
among veterans who did not.
cautiously,

however,

These findings must be interpreted

since

the

expected

proportions

of

site-specific cancer deaths for in-country veterans were derived
from a relatively small number (74) of cancer deaths among era
27

�veterans and would therefore be subject to considerably large
random fluctuations.

At the same time, the difference between

the observed and expected numbers of soft tissue tumors among
in-country

veterans

supports similar

proportionate mortality

findings

study conducted

in a previous

by the Massachusetts

Department of Public Health. Neither the Wisconsin study nor the
New York study found significant differences between in-country
and era veterans in the occurrence

of soft tissue

sarcomas.

These studies, however, and the present one are limited by the
absence of precise exposure data, unknown sizes of the candidate
populations at risk, and insufficient follow-up time to account
for

latency

from

in-country veterans.

exposures

that might have been unique to

Also, by including deaths from as early as

1968, the present study may have been biased against finding an
excess occurrence of cancers with long latency periods.

This study only suggests the possibility that the risk of
death

from

soft

tissue

sarcomas,

Hodgkin's

disease,

and

testicular cancer are elevated among veterans who served in
Vietnam.

We are currently awaiting the records of the in-country

veterans who died from these tumors in order to speculate about
possible exposure histories and to generate hypotheses that may
have some biologic plausibility.

To take advantage of latency

periods, cancer-specific proportionate mortality studies could be
repeated

in several years.

Also, by excluding

deaths

that

occurred in the late-Vietnam and early post-Vietnam period, and
by improving ascertainment of exposure histories, studies can

28

�focus more sharply on etiologic hypotheses relating to possible
exposures in Vietnam.

On the other hand, since proportionate

mortality studies are more useful to explore than to confirm
hypotheses, it is recommended that more precise risk-assessment
studies of Vietnam cohorts be performed using national data to
further test the hypothesis that Hodgkin's disease, testicular
malignancies, and soft tissue tumors may be important causes of
cancer mortality among veterans who served in Vietnam.

29

�BIBLIOGRAPHY

Dienstfrey, Stephen J., and James J. Bryne.
Veterans in the
United States; A Statistical Portrait from the 1980" Gensus.
Washington, D.C.: Veterans Administration, 1985.
"Final Toll for U.S. in Indb-China."
(Sept. 24, 1973): 73.

U.S. News £ World Report

Kogan, Michael D., and Clapp, Richard W. Mortality among Vietnam
Veterans in Mas sachuse t1s, 1972-1983. Boston: Massachusetts
Department of Public Health, 1985.
Lawrence, Charles E. et al. "Mortality Patterns of New York
State Vietnam Veterans." American Journal of Public Health
75 (March 1985): 277-79.
'
Shottenfeld, David, and Joseph F. Fraumeni, Jr., Cancer
Epidemiology and Prevention.
Philadelphia: W.B. Saunders
Company, 1982.

30

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                  <text>&lt;p style="margin-top: -1em; line-height: 1.2em;"&gt;The Alvin L. Young Collection on Agent Orange comprises 120 linear feet and spans the late 1800s to 2005; however, the bulk of the coverage is from the 1960s to the 1980s and there are many undated items. The collection was donated to Special Collections of the National Agricultural Library in 1985 by Dr. Alvin L. Young (1942- ). Dr. Young developed the collection as he conducted extensive research on the military defoliant Agent Orange. The collection is in good condition and includes letters, memoranda, books, reports, press releases, journal and newspaper clippings, field logs and notebooks, newsletters, maps, booklets and pamphlets, photographs, memorabilia, and audiotapes of an interview with Dr. Young.&lt;/p&gt;&#13;
&lt;p&gt;For more about this collection, &lt;a href="/exhibits/speccoll/exhibits/show/alvin-l--young-collection-on-a"&gt;view the Agent Orange Exhibit.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</text>
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01353
Houk, Vernon N.

Corporate Author
Report/ArtidO TltlO Memorandum: to Ronald W. Hart, Chairman, Science
Panel, Agent Orange Workinh Group (AOWG), from
Vernon N. Houk, Assistant Surgeon General, with
subject Protocol for Women's Vietnam Veterans Health
Study, September 10,1987

Journal/Book Title
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000

°

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D

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DOSCrlptOn NOtBS

Memo discusses concerns that Houk has about the
study protocol. He wants the concerns addressed
before he will be willing to support conduct of the study.

Wednesday, July 11, 2001

Page 1854 of 1870

�DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH &amp; HUMAN SERVICES

Public Health Service
Centers for Disease Control

Memorandum
Date

.September 10, 1987

From

Director
Center for Environmental Health and Injury Control

Subject

Protocol for Women's Vietnam Veterans Health Study

To

Ronald W. Hart, Ph.D.,
Chairman, Science Panel
Agent Orange Working Group
We have reviewed the Women's Vietnam Veterans Health Study Protocol
submitted by the Hew England Research Institute, Inc. We have serious
concerns about this submission which we have listed below. Until these
concerns are adequately addressed, I cannot support conduct of the
proposed study. Detailed below are comments on the protocol for the
Women's Veteran Health Study.
A. Cohor^ Selection
1. Unlike the Vietnam Experience Study, there are differences
between the exposed group and the comparison groups in variables
other than experience in Vietnam. The presence of such
differences increases potential confounding and complicates the
analyses. Would it be more satisfactory to limit the scope of
the study and the selection of a comparison group (e.g., Limit,
the study to army cases and controls) to address the most
important hypotheses rather than try to do too much?
2. It is not clear how the VA developed its list of 5000 Army
Vietnam veterans—how complete is this list? How complete are
the lists of Vietnam veterans in the other services?
3. The sampling frame for the non-Vietnam veterans is not clearly
described.
4. How valid is their proposed capture-recapture method as a method
of documenting the completeness of the cohorts.
5. What duty stations will women veterans for Cohort B come from?
Will the Air Force sample of nurses be large enough for separate
comparisons?
6. pages 2-3: What does matched on occupation mean and how will this
be possible?
7. Consideration might be given to increasing the number of controls
(per case) in the overall study, especially in some of the
proposed substudies (e.g., reproductive health).

�Page 2 - Ronald W. Hart, Ph.D.
B. Reproductive Health
1. The expectation is to find major birth defects in 1% of
offspring; a more appropriate expectation is 2-3%. It would be
wise to compile a list of specific defects which are to be
considered "major" before the study begins.
2. Cases are defined as women who have had a baby with a defect or
"two or more spontaneous abortions not clearly attributable to an
identified cause." They propose excluding those with an
1
"unequivocal karyotypic abnormality", and those with a uterine
abnormality. Exclusion of women who themselves have a tcaryotypic
abnormality seems reasonable, but it is unlikely that any will be
found in the sample. If the reference implies that aborted
fetuses that have a karyotypic abnormality will be excluded, this
is not reasonable. An abortion associated with a chromosomal
anomaly is a health outcome worth considering in the study. In
general, more details are needed on why certain
diseases/conditions are being excluded.
3. Spontaneous abortions will be difficult to validate since they
are frequently not medically documented.
4. It is stated that women with diethylstilbesterol (DBS) exposure
would be kept in the sample. We would suggest exclusion since
they are excluding spontaneous abortions associated with uterine
abnormality, and DES exposed women have a higher rate of
abortion, usually from uterine abnormality.
5. We would suggest matching controls on age at the last abnormal
pregnancy, rather than the first. Spontaneous abortion is
strongly related to age and a woman's pregnancies may be
separated by many years.
6. At the time this study will be done, most women Vietnam veterans
will be 40 or more years of age. Therefore the evaluation of
prolonged amenorrhea should probably be deleted from the study.
7. A definition of fertility/infertility is needed.
C. PsycholoRical/KeuropsychoIoRical TestinR
1. The proposal to use the CDC Vietnam Experience Study (VES)
neuropsychological battery is inappropriate. That battery was
designed to assess primarily neuropsychological deficits which
might be expected from exposure to a toxin (e.g. TCDD). The
battery also included some assessment of psychological and
neuropsychological problems that might be related to stress.

�Page 3 - Ronald W. Hart, Ph.D.
This latter component is not included (as far as we can tell) in
the present protocol. Since TCDD exposure is unlikely to have
been a major problem for most nurses in Vietnam, it would
probably be better to give greater emphasis to long-term
psychological stress faced by these veterans while in Vietnam.
This would mean that the proposed battery should include some
measures of stress which have been well validated and accepted in
psychological research.
'

In addition, greater emphasis should be given to depression,
anxiety, and alcohol and drug use, which are possible sequelae of
stress. Also, consideration should be given to including the
Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI), and more of
the Diagnostic Interview Schedule (DIS) than just the Post
Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) section.

2. Another concern in the psychological area is the testing in the
home of the participant. The VES battery was designed to be
administered in a standard testing environment by trained
technicians under close supervision. Quality control and
standardization will be difficult in the proposed setting.
3. The rationale for measurement of TCDD levels in the PTSD substudy
needs further clarification/justification.
4. With respect to the psychological area in general, we suggest
that advice be sought from experts in psychology/psychiatry to
evaluate the proposed psychological test battery. In addition,
staffing for the study should include a qualified psychologist or
psychiatrist.
D. Serum. Dioxin (TCDD) Measurement
1. The whole issue of Agent Orange exposure assessment/TCDD testing
becomes questionable now that the results of CDC's Validation
Study are known. If TCDD testing is to be done, is a whole unit
of blood necessary—if willing to accept some cut-off level (e.g.
20 ppt) less blood may be required. Also, if TCDD testing is to
be done, consideration should be given to using a sample of
Vietnam and non-Vietnam veterans—based on the results of a
sample, a decision could be made about testing other
participants.
2. Serum TCDD measurements are to be used as the measure of exposure
for both the Reproductive Outcomes Study and the Post Traumatic
Stress Disorder Study. Apparently about 550 serum analyses will
be needed for these two studies combined. The current proposal
does not involve flying the participants to a centralized
collection center but rather using local Red Cross Centers on
contract. These approximately 550 women will be located all over

�Page 4 - Ronald U. Hart, Ph.D.
the United States and the Red Cross is not even present in every
state, so obtaining the samples solely in this manner will not be
possible. A very large number (&gt;100) of Red Cross contracts will
be involved to obtain blood on persons near a Red Cross Center
under the current plan. The use of at least regional Red Cross
Centers would be a marked improvement and the quality of sample
acquisition would be significantly higher if only a few (even
one) Red Cross Center(s) were used.
3. T|he cost of the serum 2,3,7,8-TCDD measurement should be noted to
be $1000 apiece. Currently the protocol states that EHLS is the
only lab in the U.S. that can perform the measurements, but
clearance for such measurements at EHLS has not been obtained.
Similarly, has the American Red Cross been approached as to their
willingness to participate in this study?
E. Operational and Other Issues
1. The protocol anticipates a fair amount of dependence on both
interviews and military records. What are the limitations of
these data in terms of the questions addressed (e.g.,
ascertainment of spontaneous abortions by history)?.
2. The authors do not provide information on how they propose to
address the issue of name changes in female veterans and the
difficulties this might cause in locating these veterans.
3. The operational aspects of the pediatric examination component
are not clearly described. Has the Ranch Hand Study been
successful in this area? What end points will be looked at and
analyzed?
4. The choice of conditions to be validated might be expanded to
include same conditions which have been suggested to be
associated with TCDD exposure—e.g. skin conditions (chloracne,
hyperpigmentation, etc.), liver disorders including prophyria,
peripheral neuropathy, immunologic deficits.
5. Quality control of the physical and routine laboratory
examinations must be assured.
6. Has adequate effort been made to insure that the medical records
and pathology slides will be reviewed in a blinded manner?
7. What efforts are being made to insure quality assurance and
quality control of hormone blood testing?

Vernon H. Houk, M.D.
Assistant Surgeon General

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°1852

Author

McKlnlay, Sonja M.

Corporate Author

New

ROpOrt/ArtldB TltlO

Women

England Research Institute, Inc., Watertown, Mass

's Vietnam Veterans Health Study Protocol
Development, Summary Report of Expert Panel
Review, Deliverable E

Journal/Book HUB
Year

000

°

Month/Day
Color

a

Number of hnaoos

25

DBSCriptOn NOtBS

Contract No. V101(93)P-1138

Wednesday, July 11, 2001

Page 1853 of 1870

�WOMEN'S VIETNAM VETERANS HEALTH STUDY
PROTOCOL DEVELOPMENT

CONTRACT NO. V101(93)P-1138

SUMMARY REPORT OF EXPERT PANEL REVIEW
DELIVERABLE E

SUBMITTED BY NEW ENGLAND RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INC.

PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR
SONJA M. MCKINLAY, Ph.D.

NEW ENGLAND RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INC.
42 Pleasant Street
Watertown, Massachusetts 02 i 72
(617)923-7747

�TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION

1

SECTION 1:

LITERATURE REVIEW

2

SECTION 2 :

STUDY DESIGN

3

2 .1

COHORT DESIGN AND SUB-STUDIES

3

2.2

VIETNAM EXPERIENCE (VE) EXPOSURE COMPONENTS

8

2. 3

POPULATION DEFINITION AND SAMPLE SIZES

8

2. 4

GENERAL HEALTH OUTCOMES

9

2. 5

REPRODUCTIVE OUTCOMES

SECTION 3 : QUESTIONNAIRE
3 .1
3. 2
TABLE 3.3

REPRODUCTIVE FUNCTION/OUTCOME
MISCELLANEOUS SUGGESTIONS
EXPERT PANEL COMPOSITION

EXPERT PANEL AFFIDAVITS

10
11
11
12
14
16

�INTRODUCTION

A key task under the current contract was the formation
of an Expert Panel of Consultants who would review the
following final products:
•

Literature Review;

•

Study Design; and

•

Questionnaire

As proposed, NERI expanded this mandated function to
include review of preliminary drafts and participation in a
one day discussion including prepared written comments on
specific assignments. Finally, the Technical Representative
(Dr. H. Kang) requested written affidavits indicating
acceptance, by panel members, of the final products.
The following sections include a summary of input on
the Literature Review (Section 1), a summary of input on the
Study Design (Section 2) and on the Questionnaire (Section
3). A final section lists the panel members and their areas
of expertise, includes copies of the panel assignments for
the one day review and affidavits accepting the Study Design
and Questionnaire submitted to the VA as final products.

�1. LITERATURE REVIEW

A draft of the Literature Review was sent to panel
members for review and verbal or written comments in
January, 1987.
Apart from clarification of some ambiguous statements,
the primary input was in the form of additional key
references which were very recently published or in press.
This input was exactly what was desired. Panel members
were clearly at the forefront of important areas of
research, including phenoxy herbicides, nursing exposures
and reproductive toxicology in particular.
Interestingly, one important occupational exposure not
included in the original review and not raised by the panel
was hexachlorophene - a major occupational exposure for
nurses in the study period, which also has TCDD as a
contaminant in its manufacture. This exposure was identified
through two sources: a senior staff member at CDC (personal
communication) and the updated report of the NIOSH
Occupational Dioxin Registry (Fingerhut et al, 1985). A
review of this potentially confounding occupational exposure
is included in the final products as an Addendum to the
Literature Review.

�2. STUDY DESIGN

Substantial input was obtained from panel members in
the following forms:

•

written comments submitted for the one day meeting;

•

verbal comments at the meeting; and

•

verbal or written comments on a subsequently revised
document.

For clarity, comments and decisions will be summarized
under the following sub-headings:

•

Basic cohort design and sub-studies;

• VE exposure components;
•

Population definintion and sample size;

•

General health outcomes; and

• Reproductive outcomes.

2.1 COHORT DESIGN AND SUB-STUDIES

(a) Cancer Case/Control Study
The originally proposed case/control study of cancers
was deleted from the study design after the following
comments and issues were reviewed and discussed:

�1. The inclusion of all cancers was considered
insensitive to TCDD exposure. Reference was made to
the SEER (NCI) data which included better incidence
data with which to estimate expected numbers of
relevant cancers (Soft Tissue Sarcoma, Hodgkin's
Disease and Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma).
2. Risk factors (confounders) would differ for each
cancer site.
3. The inclusion of cancer cases and controls from
Cohort B, which will not have been exposed to TCDD
(at least to the same degree) was considered noninformational, given the aim of this substudy to
investigate associations between cancer and TCDD
exposure.
4. Debilitation and therapy in cancer cases will affect
both immune status (one of the intervening variables
to be measured) and body fat available for TCDD
determinations.

As suggested by panel members, the expected number of
STS, HD and NHL cancer cases combined was subsequently
estimated as 30 for both cohorts combined, using SEER data
(NCI, 1987) . These numbers were too small for a case/control
study to be feasible.
Congenital Abnormality Case/Control Study
The case/control study of congenital abnormalities was
generally well-received as an important sub-study. The
following issues were raised in its design:

�1. The study should be restricted to Cohort A (VEexposed subjects).
2. The detection of abnormality in aborted fetuses was
considered problematic - not all hospital records
would include sufficient details. Rather, panel
members recommended including only abnormalities
detected in live born offspring.

3. The suggestion was made during discussion to include
spontaneous abortions as the other adverse
reproductive outcome for this case/control study.
This last suggestion was further modified to include
only multiple abortions (2+) with no clear cause, as
otherwise numbers for this sub-study would have been
too large.
4. The suggestion was made to use information on the
half-life of TCDD in adipose tissue (if available)
to estimate TCDD body burden at conception.

(c) Nurses Sub-Study

Because nurses are expected to comprise at least 85% of
the Cohorts, this sub-study was seen by panel members as
perhaps the main study. A lively discussion developed out of
which a consensus was obtained that emphasis should be on as
homogeneous a group as possible.

The decision was therefore made to restrict this substudy to Army nurses from both cohorts.

�Further discussion centered on the desirability of a
civilian control group in order to unconfound, as much as
possible, the basic nursing occupational exposures. This was
a major concern given that nurses in Cohort B were also
exposed to unique stresses of caring for wounded Vietnam
veterans. Subsequent discussions with Dr. Kang on this issue
of a third control group produced the alternative proposal
from Dr. Kang to include Air Force nurses in Cohort B as a
third, relatively unexposed group. This suggestion was also
incorporated in the final design.

(d) PTSD Sub-Study
There was discussion at the one day meeting concerning
the possibility of investigating PTSD, its relation to
neuro-behavioral functioning and TCDD exposure. The final
PTSD sub-study resulted from this discussion.

(e) Validation Sub-Studies

The following recommendations were made concerning
validation of key outcomes:
•

It was strongly recommended that pathology slides be
obtained to validate at least the following cancers
- STS, HD, NHL.

Early amenorrhea (&lt; 40 years) should be verified
with FSH levels.

�Records should be obtained (or at least releases to
obtain them) for all major diagnoses, "even if all
are not verified immediately. Members of the panel
also felt that pediatric examination of all
congenital abnormalities may not be necessary.
Rather record verification with examination of a
small sub-sample may be sufficient.
The operative note is the most important source for
verifying endometrial pathology, rather than the
pathology report and should be obtained, if
possible. Results of pelvic examination were
inadequate validation evidence for endometriosis.
Pathology reports should be obtained for all induced
abortions.

(f) Mortality Study

An originally proposed analytic study of deaths in both
cohorts was considered not very informative as outlined and
somewhat duplicative of the VA Mortality Study in progress.
At the same time, it was generally considered essential to
include deaths as outcomes in as many analyses as possible,
to minimize bias. The final approach proposed involves
analysis of primary data sets with and without deceased
cohort members included.

�2.2 VIETNAM EXPERIENCE (VE) EXPOSURE COMPONENTS

There was protracted discussion of VE exposure
components and the following points were made (and
incorporated in revisions):
•

Exposure to TCDD and to phenoxy herbicides should be
kept distinct, conceptually as there are no
satisfactory direct measures of phenoxy herbicide
exposure;

•

Emphasis should be on VE as a whole and exposure to
phenoxy herbicides (TCDD);

•

An attempt should be made to obtain some data on use
of insect repellents, even if detailed insecticide
exposure is not available; and

•

The panel members were intrigued with the
availability of workload data in the Chief Nurses'
Reports and encouraged the extraction and use of
such information for the final study.

All of these recommendations were incorporated into the
final Study Design.
2.3 POPULATION DEFINITION AND SAMPLE SIZES

The panel considered that, given the difficulties in
obtaining lists with current contact information, use of the
VA Mortality Study lists was an acceptable compromise. At
the same time the panel members urged that:

�1. The sampling design used in compiling the lists be
documented;
2. The adequacy (coverage) of the lists (especially for
Cohort B) be verified during the Phase II study.
Both of these recommendations were incorporated into
the final design.
With respect to sample size, there was some discussion
concerning whether Cohort A constituted a sample or a
population. If the emphasis is on generalization to women
Vietnam veterans only, then Cohort A is a population and no
sampling variation is estimable for this cohort. If the
emphasis is on women Vietnam veterans as a sample of women
potentially exposed to VE (or its equivalent) then Cohort A
is a sample. The consensus was that Cohort A should be
considered as a sample and smallest detectable relative
risks calculated on this assumption. This consensus is
reflected in the final study design.
2.4 GENERAL HEALTH OUTCOMES

All the proposed health outcomes were reviewed by the
panel and the following recommendations made:
•

Those cancers likely to be misclassified as organspecific when they are, in fact, STS should be
included for record review; and

•

There should be emphasis on Post Traumatic Shock
Disorder (PTSD) and selected other health outcomes.

These were incorporated into the final design.

�2.5 REPRODUCTIVE OUTCOMES

Following panel recommendations this class of outcomes
was sub-divided as follows:
1. Reproductive Function; menstrual (ovulatory)
function without conception, including measures of
infertility, risk factors for anovulatory or
irregular cycles, presence of pelvic infection
(including sexually transmitted disesases - STD's Tuberculosis of the Pelvis and other Pelvic
Inflammatory Disease) and prolonged periods of
amenorrhea.
2. Adverse Reproductive Outcome; this includes
selected adverse outcomes of conception (major
congenital abnormality, multiple spontaneous
abortion).

The panel also recommended that emphasis be given to adverse
reproductive function and conception outcomes in the study.

10

�3. QUESTIONNAIRE

The Expert Panel had several suggestions for question
content and wording. Most of them were in the areas of
reproductive function and outcome (Section 3.1) with some
additional miscellaneous suggestions (Section 3.2).
3.1 REPRODUCTIVE FUNCTION/OUTCOME

The following specific suggestions were made:
(a) Emphasis was placed on obtaining menstrual histories
from menarche onwards, to include an assessment of
menstrual function (cycle length, regularity etc.)
before the exposure period.
(b) Certain menstrual symptoms/events are good
predictors of ovulatory cycles. In particular,
ovulating women are more likely to experience cramps
or other pre-menstrual symptoms, while clotting is
associated with anovulatory cycles.
(c) Benign breast and uterine pathology are more likely
in anovulatory women and should be recorded under
diagnoses as another measure of probable reduced
fertility.
(d) Because this is a retrospective longitudinal study,
rather than cross-sectional, the definition of
infertility used on the National Center for Health
Statistics National Survey of Family Growth had to
be carefully adapted, using a different set of
questions. It was also recommended that subjects be
asked directly if they had difficulty conceiving for

11

�a period of at least twelve months of attempting to
conceive.
(e) Pregnancy complications (toxemia etc.) could be
omitted from the pregnancy history.
(f) Birth weight and length of gestation should be
included as outcome variables.
(g) A standard list of occupational exposures for
adverse reproductive outcomes should be included.

These suggestions were reviewed and revisions made to
the questionnaire to accommodate them.

3.2 MISCELLANEOUS SUGGESTIONS
An excellent suggestion which was incorporated into the
questionnaire was the addition of questions on knowledge of
and access to VA services offered to women veterans. The
motivation was to help diffuse the focus of the study and
was in keeping with this being a Women Veterans Health
Study.
A further suggestion which was considered carefully was
the possibility of sending out to subjects a selfadministered questionnaire (SAQ) on some of the standard
histories (pregnancy, contraceptive, military,
occcupational, marital) before the telephone interview. This
would prepare the subject and give her a framework within
which to refresh her memory.
After reviewing pre-testing experience, it was decided
not to use a SAQ before the telephone interview for the
following reasons:

12

�1. subjects were able to remember and complete the
histories in a timely fashion; and
2. there was concern that subjects would share this
information with other veterans eligible for study,
before they were interviewed, increasing the
potential for either non-response and/or bias in
prepared answers later in the study.

13

�TABLE 3.3
EXPERT PANEL COMPOSITION

Affiliation

Areas of Expertlee
(Reference N . \ '
o)"

R. Clapp, MPH

Director, Massachusetts
Cancer Registry
Mass. Dept. Health
Boston, MA

Agent Orange Exposure
Vietnam Veterans (Mass.) Study
Occupational/Environmental
Exposure Studies

T. Colton, ScD

School of Public Health
Boston University
Boston, MA

Epidemiologic Methods and
Statistical Analysis
Agent Orange/Vietnam Veterans
Studies

Dept. Reproductive

Medical Management of
Reproductive Health Problems
Reproductive Epidemiology

A. Haney, MD

Medicine
Duke University
Durham, NC
M. Hatch, PhD

School of Public Health
Columbia University
New York, NY

D. Mattison, MD

Dept. of Ob/Gyn
Reproductive Toxicology
Div. Reproductive Pharm.
and Toxicology
University of Arkansas
Little Rock, AK

D. Ozonoff, MD, MPH

School of Public Health
Boston University
Boston, MA

Reproductive Epidemiology

Occupational/Environmental
Epidemiology

Z. Stein, MA, MB, BCh Director, Epidemiology
Psydliatric Epidemiology
of Brain Disorders Rsch Agent Orange/Exposure Studies
NY State Psychiatric inst
Dept. Epidemiology
Columbia University
New York, NY

14

�WOMEN VIETNAM VETERANS HEALTH STUDY
PROTOCOL DEVELOPMENT
CONTRACT NO. V101(93)P-1138
EXPERT PANEL REVIEW
ASSIGNMENT REVIEW

Area for Review

Reviewer

Secondary;
Reviewer

1. Phenoxy Herbicide Exposure
(definition and measurement)

R. Clapp

D. Mattison
D. Ozonoff.

2. Other VE Exposure
(definition and measurement)

M. Hatch

A. Haney
D. Ozonoff

3. General (incl. Mental) Health
Outcomes
(definition and measurement)

Z. stein

M. Hatch
D. Ozonoff

4. Reproductive Health Outcomes
(definition and measurement)

A. Haney

D. Mattison
M. Hatch

5. Reproductive Outcomes

D. Mattison

A. Haney

6. Design Approach and Sample Size

T. Colton

D. Ozonoff
R. Clapp

7. Population Definition

R. Clapp

T. Colton
Z. Stein

(definition and measurement)

15

�EXPERT

PANEL

16

A F F I D A V I T S

�NEW ENGLAND RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INC.

I have reviewed the final study design and questionnaire for
the proposed Women's Vietnam Veterans Health Study and my
recommendation is as follows (check one option and add any
comments):
V

I approve the design and questionnaire as presented,
with no further modi jti cat ions. Any concerns have
been clarified by telephone.
I do not approve the design and questionnaire as
presented. It will require the following revisions
to meet with my approval:

NAME

i

42 Pleasant Street
Watertown, Massadiusetts 02172
(617)923-7747

SIGNATURE

0
/L

//

DAfE

�NEW ENGLAND RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INC.

I have reviewed the final study design and questionnaire for
the proposed Women's Vietnam Veterans Health Study and my
recommendation is as follows (check one option and add any
comments):
I approve the design and questionnaire as presented,
with no further modifications. Any concerns have
been clarified by telephone.
I do not approve the design and questionnaire as
presented. It will require the following revisions
to meet with my approval:

It
cru.

V

-72W
NAME

42 Heasant Street
Watertown, Massachusetts 02172
(617)923-7747

SMWATURE

DAI

�NEW ENGLAND RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INC.

I have reviewed the final study design and questionnaire for
the proposed Women's Vietnam Veterans Health Study and my
recommendation is as follows (check one option and add any
comments):
I approve the design and questionnaire as presented,
with no further modifications. Any concerns have
been clarified by telephone.
I do not approve the design and questionnaire as
presented. It wall require the following revisions
to meet with my approval:

-5WL-V

NAME

SIGNATURE7T

42 Pleasant Street
Watertown, Massachusetts 02172
(617)923-7747

�NEW ENGLAND RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INC.

I have reviewed the final study design and questionnaire for
the proposed Women's Vietnam Veterans Health Study and my
recommendation is as follows (check one option and add any
comments):
Llit; design and questionnaire as presented,
with no further modifications. Any concerns have
been clarified by telephone.
I do not approve the design and questionnaire as
presented. It will require the following revisions
to meet with my approval:

NAME

SIGNATURE

42 Pleasant Street
Watertown, Massachusetts 02172
(617)923-7747

DATE

�NEW ENGLAND RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INC.

I have reviewed the final study design and questionnaire for
the proposed Women's Vietnam Veterans Health Study and my
recommendation is as follows (check one option and add any
comments):
f-

.

v

I approve the design and questionnaire as presented,
with no further modifications. Any concerns have
been clarified by telephone.
I do not approve the design and questionnaire as
presented. It will require the following revisions
to meet with my approval:

Dr. Donald Mattison

NAME

£

t]_

_

S I G N A T U R E D A T E

42 Pleasant Street
Watertown, Massachusetts 02172
(617)923-7747

�NEW ENGLAND RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INC

I have reviewed the final study design and questionnaire for
the proposed Women's Vietnam Veterans Health Study and my
recommendation is as follows (check one option and add any
comments):
^

I approve the design and questionnaire as presented,
with no further modifications. Any concerns have
been clarified by telephone.
I do not approve the design and questionnaire as
presented. It will require the following revisions
to meet with my approval:

SIGNATURE -'

42 Pleasant Street
Watertown, Massachusetts 02172
(617)923-7747

DATE

�NEW ENGLAND RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INC.

I have reviewed the final study design and questionnaire for
the proposed Women's Vietnam Veterans Health Study and my
recommendation is as follows (check one option and add any
comments):
I approve the design and questionnaire as presented,
with no further modifications. Any concerns have
been clarified by telephone.
I do not approve the design and questionnaire as
presented. It w.ill require the following revisions
to meet with my approval:

Zena Stein. M.B.. B.Ch.
NAME

42 Pleasant Street
Watertown, Massachusetts 02172
(617)923-7747

II T
—/
SIGNATURE

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Author
Corporate Author
Report/Article Title Materia|s from the VETS II Review, including agenda,
participant list, and summary, August 30,1984.

Journal/Book Title
Year

000

°

Month/Day
Color

n

Number of hnaues

25

UOSCrtatOn NotBS

^'v'n ^- Young filed this item under "Vietnam Veterans
Twin Study." Duplicate is of summary only.

Wednesday, July 11, 2001

Page 1830 of 1870

�AGENDA TO REVIEW

VETS II
August 30, 1984

TIME

SUBJECT

SPEAKER OR PARTICIPANTS

8:00 a.m. - 8:30 a.m.

Welcome and Charge to Committee

Dr. Greene

8:30 a.m. - 9:15 a.m.

Ranch Hand Study
(U.S. Air Force)

Dr. Wolfe

a) Epidemiological Study of the
Health of Vietnam Veterans

Dr. Erickson

9:15 a.m. - 10:00 a.m.

b)

Agent Orange Birth Defects Study
(Centers for Disease Control)

10:00 a.m. - 10:15 a.m.

Questions Concerning Studies of Exposure
to Agent Orange

10:15 a.m. - 10:45 a.m.

Vietnam Twin Register Study, Protocol I
(Medical Follow-up Agency National Academy of Sciences)
Dr. Robinette

10:45 a.m. - 11:00 a.m.

National Needs Assessment of Vietnam
Era Veterans

Dr. Greene

(Veterans Administration's
RFP 101-9-84)
11:00 a.m. -

3:00 p.m.

Review of VETS II and Working Lunch

Review Committee

3:00 p.m. -

5:00 p.m.

Meeting with Principal Investigator
and Staff of VETS II

Review Committee

Discussion, Recommendations, and
Preparation of Summary Statement

Review Committee

5:00 p.m. - 8:00 p.m.

Attachment A

�Participants
"Vietnam Experience Twin Study"
August 30, 1984

Review Committee
Theodore Colton, Sc.D. (Chairman)
Professor of Public Health
Boston University School of Public Health
80 East Concord Street
Boston, MA ^02118
Arthur B. Bloom, M.D.
^
Professor
Department of Pediatrics
Columbia Medical School
Babies Hospital - Room 115
3959 Broadway
.New York, NY 10032
Patricia A. luffler, Ph.D.
Associate Dean for Research
Professor of Epidemiology
University of Texas
P. 0. Box 20186
Houston, TX 7702]

s^~~ W. Day, M.D., Ph.D.
Robert
Director
Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center,
1124 Columbia Street
Seattle, WA 98104
Thomas
Associate Senior Vice Chancellor, Health/Sciences
"University of Pittsburgh
3811 O'Hara Street
Pittsburgh, PA 15213
Larry Ewing, Ph.D.
Director of Reproductive Biology
Department of Population Dynamics
Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene
and Public Health
615 North Wolfe Street
Baltimore, MD 21205

Dhodanand Kowlessar,- M.D.
Professor of Medicine
Director of Gastroenterology
Thomas Jefferson University
1025 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19107
Lewis Kuller, M.D., D.P.H.
Chairman, Department of Epidemiology
University of Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh, PA 15261
or
MAIL TO: House Aging Committee
715 House Annex 1
Washington, D. C. 20515
Robert W. Miller, M.D.
Chief, Clinical Epidemiology Branch
National Cancer Institute - NIH
Landow Bldg. Room 8C41
Bethesda, MD 20205
Walter E. Nance, M.D., Ph.D.
Professor and Chairman
Department of Human Genetics
Box 33 MCV Station
Virginia Commonwealth Univ. College
of Medicine
Richmond, VA 23298
Andre Ognibene, M.D.
Hospital Director
San Antonio State Chest Hospital
P. 0. Box 23340
San Antonio, TX 78223
Morris Parloff, Ph.D.
Consultant
5010 Wickett Terrace
Bethesda, MD 20814

�Review Committee, (Cont.)
Ming Tso Tsuang, M.D., Ph.D.
&gt; Professor and Vice Chairman
' Department of Psychiatry and
Human Behavior
Brown University
MAIL TO: Director, Psychiatric Epidemiology
Research Unit
Butler Hospital
345 Blackstone Blvd.
Providence, Rhode Island 02906
John Wilson, Ph.D.
Professor
Department of Psychology
Cleveland State University
Cleveland, Ohio 44115
Alastair J.J. Wood, M.D.
Associate Professor of Medicine and Pharmacology
Department of Clinical Pharmacology
Vanderbilt University Medical School
Medical Center North
Nashville, TN 37232

�Related Studies Personnel
J. David Erickson, D.D.S., Ph.D.
Birth Defects Branch
Centers for Disease Control
1600 Clifton Rd., Chamblee Bldg. 5
Atlanta, GA 30333

William H. Wolfe, M.D.
Colonel, USAF, MC, FS
Chief. Epidemiology Services Branch
USAF, SAM/EKE
Brooks AFB, TX 78235

C. Dennis Robinette, Ph.D.
Director of Twin Registries
National Research Council
National Academy of Sciences
2101 Constitution Avenue
Washington, D.C. 20418
St. Louis Investigators and Hines VAMC Cooperative Studies Center Personnel
Seth Eisen, M.D. - Principal Investigator
VA Medical Center (151A-JB)
Research and Development Service
St Louis, MO 63125
Dan Blazer, M.D., Ph.D.
Associate Professor
Department of Psychiatry
Head Division of Social and Community Psychiatry
Duke Medical Center
Box 3173
Durham, NC 27710
Jack Goldberg, Ph.D.
Staff Epidemiologist (151K)

Cooperative Studies Program Coordinating Center
VA Medical Center
Hines, IL

60141

William G. Henderson, Ph.D.
Chief, Cooperative Studies Program Coordinating Center (15IK)
VA Medical Center
Hines, IL 60141
John Leavitt, Jr., Ph.D. (151A-JB)
Psychology Service
VA Medical Center
St Louis, MO 63125
William True, Ph.D., M.P.H. (151A-JB)
Staff Anthropologist
Psychiatry Service
VA Medical Center
St Louis, MO 63125

�William H. Wolfe, M.D.
Colonel, USAF, MC, FS
Chief, Epidemiology Services Branch
USAF, SAM/EKE

Brooks AFB, TX 78235

is VAMC Cooperative Studies Center Personnel
/estigator

munity Psychiatry

xrdinating Center

gram Coordinating Center (15IK)

i-JB)

151A-JB)

�VA Central Office
Richard J. Greene, M.D.
Director
Medical Research Service
VA Central Office
810 Vermont Avenue N.W.
Washington, D. C. 20420
Ralph E. Peterson, M.D.
Deputy Director
Medical Research Service
VA Central Office
810 Vermont Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D. C. 20420
Robert E. Allen, Ph.D.
Special Assistant
Medical Research Service
VA Central Office
810 Vermont Avenue N.W.
Washington, D. C. 20420

James A, Hagans, M.Di, Ph.D.
Chief, Cooperative Studies Program
VA Central Office
810 Vermont Avenue N.W.
Washington, D. C. 20420
Ping C. Huang, Ph.D.
Staff Assistant, Cooperative Studies Progr,
VA Central Office
810 Vermont Avenue N.W.
Washington, D. C. 20420

�PARTICIPANTS

"Vietnam Experience Twin Study'
August 30, 1984

Review Committee
Theodore Col ton, Sc.D. (Chairman)
Lewis Roller, M.D., D.P.H.
Professor of Public Health
• Chairman, Department of Epidemiology
Boston University School of Public Health University of Pittsburgh
80 East Concord Street
Pittsburgh, PA 15261
Boston, MA 02118
Arthur B. Bloon, M.D.

Professor
Department of Pediatrics
Columbia Medical School
Babies Hospital - "Room 115
3959 Broadway
New York, NY 10032
Robert W. Day, M.D., Ph.D.
Director
Fred Hutch inson Cancer Research Center
1124 Columbia Street
Seattle, WA 98104
Detre, M.D.
Associate Senior Vice Chancellor,
Health Sciences
University of Pittsburgh
3811 O'Hara Street
Pittsburgh, PA 15213
Larry Ewing, Ph.D.
Director of Reproductive Biology
Department of Population Dynamics
Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene
and Public Health
615 North Wolfe Street
Baltimore, MD 21205

MAIL TO: House Aging Committee
715 House Annex 1
Washington, DC 20515
Robert W. Miller, M.D.
Chief, Clinical Epidemiology Branch
National Cancer Institute - NTH
Landow Bldg. Room 8C41
Bethesda, MD 20205
Walter B. Nance, M.D., Ph.D.
Professor and Chairman
Department of Human Genetics
Box 33 MCV Station
Virginia Commonwealth Univ. College
of Medicine
Richmond, VA 23298
Andre Ognibene, M.D.
Hospital Director
San Antonio State Chest Hospital
P.O. Box 23340
San Antonio, TX 78223
Moris Parloff, Ph.D.
Consultant
5010 Wickett Terrace
Bethesda, MD 20814

;

Dhodanand Kowlessar, M.D.
Professor of Medicine
Director of Gastroenterology
Thomas Jefferson University
1025 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19107

Attachment A

�eviewCommittee/ (Cont.)
Ming Tso Tsuang, M.D., Ph.D.
Professor and Vice Chairman
Departnvant of Psychiatry and
Hunan Behavior
Brown University
*

:

MAIL TO: Director, Psychiatric Epidemiology
Research Unit
Butler Hospital,
345 Blacks tone Blvdi" '
'
Providence, *hode Island 02906
John Wilson, Ph.D.
Professor
Department of Psychology
Cleveland State University
Cleveland, Ohio 44115
Alastair J.J. Wood, M.D.
Associate Professor of Medicine
and Pharmacology
Department of Clinical Pharmacology
Vanderbilt University Medical School
Medical•Center &gt;torth
Nashville, TO 37232

�Related Studies Personnel
J. David Erickson, D.D.S., Ph.D.
Birth Defects Branch
Centers for Disease Control
1600 Clifton Rd., Chamblee Bldg. 5
Atlanta, GA 30333
^

William H. Wolfe, M.D.
Colonel, USAF, MC, FS
Chief, Epidemiology Services Branch
OSAF, SAM/FXE
Brooks, AFB, TX

78235

C. Dennis Robinette, Ph.D.
Director of Twin Registries
Kat-ional Research Council
National Academy of Sciences •
2101 Constitution Avenue
Washington, DC 20418
St. Louis Investigators and Hines VAMC Cooperative Studies Center Personnel
Seth "Eisen, M.D. - Principal Investigator
VA Medical Center (151A-JB)
Research and'Development Service
St. Louis, MO 63125
Dan Blazer, M.D., Ph.D.
Associate Professor
Department of Psychiatry
Head Division of School and Community Psychiatry
Duke Medical Center
Box 3173
Durham, KC 27710
Jack Goldberg, Ph.D.
Staff Epidemiologist (151K)
Cooperative Studies Program Coordinating Center
VA Medical Center
Hines, IL 60141
William G. Henderson, Ph.D.
Chief, Cooperative Studies Program Coordinating Center (151K)
VA Medical Center
Hines, IL 60141
John Leavitt, Jr., Ph.D. (151A-JB)
Psychology Service
VA Medical Center
St. Louis, MD 63125
William True, Ph.D., M.P.H. (15lA-xTB)
Staff Anthropologist
Psychiatry Service
VA Medical Center
St. Louis, MO 63125

�VA Centred Office
Richard J. Greene, M.D.
Director
Medical Research Service

VA Central Office
810 Vermont Avenue N.W.
Washington, DC 20420 '
Ralph T=\ Peterson, M.D.
Deputy Director •
Medical Research Service
VA Central Office
810 Vermont Avenue N.W.
Washington, DC 20420
Robert E. Allen, Ph.D.
Special Assistant
Medical Research Service
VA Central Office
810 Vermont Avenue N.W.
Washington, DC 20420

James A. Hagans, M.D., Ph.D.
Chief, Cooperative Studies Program
VA Central Office
810 Vermont Avenue N.W.
Washington, DC 20420
Ping C. Huang, Ph.D.
Staff Assistant,
Cooperative Studies Program
VA Central Office
810 Vermont Avenue N.W.
Washington, DC 20420

�AGENDA TO REVIEW
VETS II
August 30, 1984

TIME

.

jt . ,-

SUBJECT

SPEAKER - -OR PARTICIPANT!
-- ._
!

•*•

l

8:00 a.m. -

8:30 a.m.

Welcome and Charge to Committee

Dr. Greene

8:30 a.m. -

9:15 a.m.

Ranch Hand Study
(U.S. Air Force)

Dr. Wolfe

a) Epidemiological Study of the
Health of Vietnam Veterans

Dr. Erickson

9:15 a.m. -'10:00 a.m.

b)

Agent Orange Birth Defects Study
(Centers for Disease Control)

10:00 a.m. - 10:15 a.m.

Questions Concerning Studies of Exposure

to Agent Orange
10:15 a.m. - 10:45 a.m.

Vietnam Twin Register Study, Protocol I
(Medical Follow-up Agency National Academy of Sciences)
Dr. Robinette

10:45

National Needs Assessment of Vietnam
Era Veterans

i

a.m. - 11:00

a.m.

(Veterans Administration's
RFP 101-9-84)
11:00 a.m. -

3:00 p.m.

Dr. Blank
Dr.

Denny

-

Review of VETS II and Working Lunch

Review Committe
j

3:00 p.m. -

5:00 p.m.

Meeting with Principal Investigator

Review Committe

and Staff of VETS II
5:00 p.m. -

8:00 p.m.

Discussion, Recommendations, and
Preparation of Summary Statement

Review Committe

Attachment

�VIETNAM EXPERIENCE TWIN STUDY
PROTOCOL NO. 2
CSP #256
RESUME

The Cooperative Study Protocol (CSP) under review is designed to
investigate the impact of military service on the Vietnam veterans'
medical, psychological and overall social adjustment. This study
has one primary purpose/and two ancillary purposes: the primary
purpose is to further examine the nature and degree of relationship
between characteristics of Vietnam service and a range of medical,
psychiatric, psychological, and psychosocial aspects of the
veteran's health. Secondary purposes include the investigation of
possible relationships between exposure to Agent Orange and the
health of the veteran and his offspring, and efforts to define and
measure Post Traumatic Stress Disorder.
One of the unique features of this approximately 10 million dollar
investigation is the inclusion of monozygotic co-twin pairs. It is
proposed to locate and intensively study 600 male monozygotic twin
pairs born during 1939-1953 who served in the military between
1965-1971. It is anticipated that of this sample about 360 will be
discordant for service in Vietnam and 240 will be concordant, i.e.,
120 co-twin pairs in which neither member had any Vietnam service
and 120 co-twin pairs in which each member had some period of
Vietnam service. The investigation will test whether there is
reliable evidence of differential post-service medical,
psychological or social well-being changes associated with
different service experiences. The plan is to bring subjects to
St. Louis for a week of extensive examinations.
The feasibility of the proposed study is, of course, contingent on
the prior successful completion of the Vietnam era Twin Registry.
The preparation of such a registry was approved (Protocol fl) and
is being undertaken by the National Research Council Commission on
Life Sciences—Medical Follow-up Agency of the National Academy of
Sciences. The application for review (Protocol 12) does not,
however, include a report indicating the successful completion of
this Registry or its readiness for use in Protocol 12.
Also to be completed prior to initiating the study are such
instruments as the DIS III, Current Behavioral Indices, the Life
History and Medical History Questionnaires.
CRITIQUE - General criticisms of project design and concepts.
The overall impression of the proposed study is that it is
fundamentally overambitious, with not enough serious, scientific
rationale provided for the work described. The hypotheses for
performing »the numerous laboratory procedures outlined in the
proposal are not based on solid scientific data. This is basically

ATTACHMEMT C

�2.

a "fishing expedition" among cohorts of twins, in which the focus
will be on clinical, laboratory, and behavioral parameters of
disease, or of disease indicators. The General Medical Assessment,
as outlined in this protocol, represents a cosmic approach to
clinical assessment, which may also be said for the extensive
battery of laboratory tests proposed. Instead of a proposal
consisting of a series 6f well-defined questions for which research
studies are to be done, the veterans will be subjected to all
manner of tests, clinical and other, on basically flimsy scientific
evidence, to see what emerges. Even the more specialized tests
have insufficient justification and weak scientific rationale.
The only independent variable in this proposed study is service in
Vietnam. A reasonable hypothesis might be generated that links
Vietnam service to psychiatric sequelae, however, other studies
directed to this goal are already being undertaken.
Because the nn" (sample size) is small the study has only a low
statistical power to detect modestly increased risks for medical or
psychiatric illnesses. The small "n" may also invalidate the
meaning of a negative result. While it may be true, as the
investigators argue, that the "n" is large enough to detect
subclinical differences in continuous variables such as laboratory
values, such differences would have no clinical significance and
are of insufficient importance to argue for implementing such a
massive study. What are the implications of finding small
deviations from normality in the co-twin pairs?
Two problems with the data analysis presentation deserve some
comment. First, information on data analysis is scattered
throughout the proposal. Although each of these subsections is
clearly presented, the relationships between the various types of
analyses is not fully discussed. The second problem is relevant to
the issue of multiple comparisons and spurious effects. This would
be less of a problem if the data anaylses were divided into
confirmatory and exploratory analyses. The confirmatory analyses
should test a prior hypotheses which are explicitly specified by
the investigators. These hypotheses could be based on either past
empirical findings or theoretical developments. Since this group
of tests will be less than the number pf tests discussed in the
proposal, it would be reasonable to apply a higher alpha level to
them than to the exploratory analyses.
The medical illnesses of Vietnam servicemen, were for the
self-limiting and will likely have long ago disappeared.
acute and/or chronic exposure to drugs or chemicals might
some abnormal test results initially, 14 or 20 years have
elapsed since active Vietnam service and any -relationship
and effect will be compromised.

most part
Although
yield
now
of cause

�3.
A basic problem is that health differences between twins may be
unrelated to Vietnam service, and may have developed in the 14 to
20 years post-Vietnam.
Since it will not be possible to obtain accurate data on which
servicemen were exposed to Agent Orange this study has essentially
no relevance to the problem of Agent Orange effects on health.
Thus, the hypothesis that the numerous psychological and
biochemical tests are for purposes of evaluation of Agent Orange
effects are invalid because, 1) of uncertainty of Agent Orange
exposure, 2) the long period of time that has elapsed after a
possible exposure to this herbicide and 3) the small number (65) of
twins to be studied, who might have been exposed to Agent Orange.
i

A basic concern is possible sample bias. The twins to be studied
appear to be coming from only 4 or 5 states, however, this is a
problem that is disregarded by the investigators. The individuals
picked at random, who are invited to participate in the study
cannot be assumed to be neutral with regard to the outcome of this
study. Some may be recipients of medical care for service
connected or service aggravated disabilities or may be receiving
pensions. As a consequence there may be a problem in gaining full
and objective cooperation from those veterans who fear that they
may be jeopardizing their future or present VA claims. Some
subjects may be selected out because of illness or their job
commitment, and are unable to travel to St. Louis. Others, because
of an affluent life-style or professional commitments may not wish
to volunteer for the extensive studies and trip to St. Louis. This
may then result in the study assembling a group of volunteers who
are unrepresentative of the population of Vietnam veterans.
Another general problem of concern to the reviewers was the
feasibility of assuring quality of medical, psychological and
laboratory examinations via competitively bid contracts. What
input will the investigators have on the letting of the contract
and sub- contracts, and how will they monitor the competence of
these contractors.

SPECIFIC CRI'TICIMS OF EXAMINATION ELEMENTS
Mental Health Examinations:

(1

Psychiatric assessment is to be made using the Diagnostic Interview
Schedule (DIS), medical records, and interview with spouse or
equivalent.
The preferred diagnostic instrument is to be the. DIS III. This may
strike the psychiatric community as an odd choice. The major value
of the DIS, to date, is as an epidemiological- survey instrument

�4.
that can be administered by non-clinicians; however,in the
contemplated study expert clinicians could more appropriately
be used. The poteatial contribution of this instrument for
clarifying PTSD is not self-evident. It is ironic that the
protocol involves transporting 1,200 person to St. Louis, but
ignores the opportunity for expert clinical examination in favor of
a survey instrument.' ^ ^.
•r

A more serious and certainly more pragmatic concern is that at the
time this protocol was prepared the DIS III had not yet become
available for inclusion in this study.
The Psychological assessment is to use a wide array of
psychological instruments: 1) four self report measures of
psychological distress, 2) three measures of cognitive deficit, 3)
one measure of psychological constriction, 4) three coping
measures, 5) two measures of cognitive measures, 6) life events,
and 7) a measure yet to be developed (Current Behavioral Indices).
In general, the theoretical and conceptual specification of the
diagnostic outcomes of primary interest is adequate; however, there
are several points of concern. First, regarding diagnostic outcome
of primary interest, there is no DIS algorithm for the schizotypal '
borderline or narcissistic personality disorders which current
research suggests overlaps with PTSD. Secondly, the specification
of four distinct groups of veterans is not well conceputalized,
either theoretically or operationally.
The delineation of construct areas is a useful procedure, however,
the proposed scales to measure the construct area do not always
represent the best possible measures, i.e., CPT to assess
psychological constriction, or the resurrection of the out-moded
California P scale as an index of cognition.
A more detailed operational definition of hypotheses is necessary.
What is it about war stress that contributes differentially to
PTSD, primary diagnostic outcomes and psychosocial measures? What
independent validations are being employed to cross-check preservice risk factor variables? There is a need to interview
significant others and obtain documentation for the occurrence of a
self-reported risk factor.
.,
Of great concern is the need to establish the feasibility of
subjecting individuals to the onerous chore of completing the timeconsuming battery of tests. Could there be a serious sample
biasing effect toward compliance and perhaps "health" for those
subjects who fully cooperate in this heavy assessment program?
What will b,e the rate of subject attrition? Consider the likelihood of a movie-version PTSD patient holding still for these
evaluations.

�5.

Overall, th,e measures will generate a plethora of data which
ultimately may have to be factored into empirically derived rather
than rationally predetermined dimensions suggested. The limits of
the study, include 'such factors as: 1) inability to match within
twin pairs for post military experience, 2) possible relevant
aspects of military service, e.g., duration of service, rank, time
of service, branch, etc,,, and 3) the limits of the cross-sectional
design involving measurement of "effects" taken 15-20 years after
the putatively critical service experiences. It is difficult to be
reassured by the argument that a "longitudinal" view will be
constructed.
Medical and Laboratory Examinations.
&lt;

It is proposed to perform a multitude of liver function tests.
This combination of tests, if abnormal, may indicate that the
subject has hepatic dysfunction, however, it will not define the
type liver disease. The primary usefulness of assays of gammaglutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) as a diagnostic test is limited to
confirmation of elevated alkaline phosphatase of bony origin, since
GGT is not found in bone and should be low in isolated disease of
the bone. ^ finding of elevated GGT has limited usefulness,
because the enzyme is ubiquitous and elevation of GGT in no way
specifies hepatic disease. Of concern in this study is the fact
that this is an inducible enzyme. Numerous enzyme-inducing drugs,
most notably alcohol, elevate the serum level of the enzyme in the
absence of other evidence of hepatic disorder. In reading their
protocol it would appear that the Pi's will depend solely on the
subject's concepts of his drinking habits. On the other hand if
all of the other liver associated tests are within normal limits,
an elevated GGT may be an indication of recent and/or continous
alcohol intake.
In summary, results will be obtained from the performance of a
battery of liver associated tests. The interpretation of these
results will be difficult unless those with abnormalities undergo
liver biopsy to determine the morphologic changes associated with
liver diseases. It will be difficult to interpret whether
Agent Orange is responsible for any of the biochemical changes that
may be found.
The section on porphyria is weak. The'authors have failed to
delineate the modern day concepts of hepatic porphyrias. The
latent and manifest forms of acute intermittent porphyria and
porphyria cutanea tarda (PCT) differ in the excretion of
porphobilinogen, delta-aminolevulinic acid, uroporphyrin and
coproporphynn. They do not specify which of these intermediates
of heme synthesis they will measure. Most cases of PCT are
sporadic, although there is a inherited enzymatic defect (deficient

�6.

activity o'f uroporphyrinogen decarboxylase) that predisposes to
development of PCT4
The "andrology" studies, as proposed, have little intellectual
basis, with the literature briefly summarized instead of critically
reviewed. The studies of spontaneous abortion are seriously undersold in their complexity;" The cytogenetic testing for sister
chromatid exchanges and chromosomal aberrations has several
specific flaws, but the allusion that somatic cell chromosome
alterations may reflect alterations in haploid cells which, in
turn, bear on sterility, fetal wastage, teratogenesis, etc., is
especially troublesome in its conceptualization, even more so than
in its implementation. The mechanism of communication of
cytogenetic test results is left, pretty much as it was at the Love
Canel, unexplained. The semen analysis is unfortunately open to
serious question for several reasons. It is stated that only a
single semen sample will be collected. This is inadequate because
of the variability in ejaculate volume, sperm numbers and sperm
motility in human semen samples. A minimum of two and optimally
three semen samples collected at 1-2 month intervals should be
obtained. The qualitative assessment of sperm motility is
inaccurate and unacceptable. A quantitative estimate of sperm
motility is essential. There is a question about the wisdom of
freezing semen for assessment of sperm numbers and morphology since
there is no description of the method of freezing semen and no
assurance that it will be done properly.
Recent large, independent investigations of Australian Vietnam
veterans (NEJM 308:719, 1983) and American Vietnam veterans (JAMA
252s903, 1984) concluded that there was no evidence that service in
Vietnam was related to the risk of fathering a child with a birth
defect, and thus there is little reason for further evaluation of
this topic with such a small number of subjects.
A wide range of immunological assays, particularly of T cell
function are proposed, again with little evidence of a rationale
for the studies. No review of Agent Orange effects on this immune
system is provided, in humans or in experimental systems, and there
is no specific reason to believe that being in Vietnam per se
alters immune function. Tmmunotoxicolpgy is a developing science,,
and is not yet applicable for definitive studies of humans exposed
to toxins. What are normative Values in the population? What
would small alterations of suppressor T cells mean for these
subjects?
In summary, it is felt that the many specific laboratory tests
proposed would be of little value. More troublesome is the weak or
absent rationale for including many of the laboratory procedures.

�7.
BUDGET
Since the prospects^ of generating objective, scientifically sound
data from this project are slim, the total costs of approximately
10 million dollars is highly cost ineffective. The request for 100
percent support for so many principal investigators is surprising.
The budget justificatiop .indicates that the staff members are to
work on other projects and conduct clinical duties in addition to
work, on this proposal.
INVESTIGATORS
The reviewers expressed considerable concern about the competence
of most of the investigators, who have never before directed a
project of this magnitude. The physician PI, Dr. Eisen has no
significant research experience and no scientific publication for
the past 8 years, except for a case report in 1982. He has one
active VA supported research project through HSR&amp;D, but has
demonstrated no expertise in any of the areas of this proposal.
Dr. Levitt, Ph.D., psychologist has no publication as a primary
author and no research support. Dr. True, Ph.D., anthrophology and
MPH in epidemiology has no publications in refereed journals and no
research support. Dr. Goldberg, Ph.D. in epidemiology has 12
refereed publications in health service research and is senior
author of five of these. He lists no research funding.
Susan Fisher has a BS in Nursing and an MS in Biostatistics.
She
is the primary or coauthor of eight publications in the field of
nursing. Dr. Henderson, Ph.D. in biostatistics is Associate
Professor, Department of Pharmacology, Loyola University and Chief,
Hines VA Cooperative Prograrm, Hines, Illinois. He has an
impressive list of publications, mostly in field of Clinical Trials
and is considered to be a global authority in this area.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Disapproval of Twin Protocol #2, CSP #256 (by a vote of 13 to 1).
Protocol #1 should continue to develop the registry of Vietnam,
twins and increase the scope of the mortality and morbidity
questionnaire for all of the approximately 10,000 male twin pairs
born between 1939-1953 with military service from 1965-1975. If
necessary additional funds should be provided to expand the
questionnaire and/or sample size in order to provide an improved
data base for a possible future implementation of a clinical study
on a subset of twins. The questionnaire for the morbidity study
might be expanded to include selected behavioral questions, family
and social history and other confounding variables such as drug and
alcohol abuse.

�VIETNAM EXPERIENCE TWIN STUDY
PROTOCOL NO. 2
CSP 1256
RESUME

The Cooperative Study Protocol (CSP) under review is designed to
investigate the impact of military service on the Vietnam veterans'
medical, psychological and overall social adjustment. This study
has one primary purpose/and two ancillary purposes: the primary
purpose is to further examine the nature and degree of relationship
between characteristics of Vietnam service and a range of medical,
psychiatric, psychological, and psychosocial aspects of the
veteran's health. Secondary purposes include the investigation of
possible relationships between exposure to Agent Orange and the
health of the veteran and his offspring, and efforts to define and
measure Post Traumatic Stress Disorder.
One of the unique features of this approximately 10 million dollar
investigation is the inclusion of monozygotic co-twin pairs. It is
proposed to locate and intensively study 600 male monozygotic twin
pairs born during 1939-1953 who served in the military between
1965-1971. It is anticipated that of this sample about 360 will be
discordant for service in Vietnam and 240 will be concordant, i.e.,
120 co-twin pairs in which neither member had any Vietnam service
and 120 co-twin pairs in which each member had some period of
Vietnam service. The investigation will test whether there is
reliable evidence of differential post-service medical,
psychological or social well-being changes associated with
different service experiences. The plan is to bring subjects to
St. Louis for a week of extensive examinations.
The feasibility of the proposed study is, of course, contingent on
the prior successful completion of the Vietnam era Twin Registry.
The preparation of such a registry was approved (Protocol 11) and
is being undertaken by the National Research Council Commission on
Life Sciences—Medical Follow-up Agency of the National Academy of
Sciences. The application for review (Protocol 12) does not,
however, include a report indicating the successful completion of
this Registry or its readiness for use in Protocol 12.
Also to be completed prior to initiating the ;study are such
instruments as the DIS III, Current Behavioral Indices, the Life
History and Medical History Questionnaires.
CRITIQUE - General criticisms of project design and concepts.
The overall impression of the proposed study is that it is
fundamentally overambitious, with not enough serious, scientific
rationale provided for the work described. The hypotheses for
performing -the numerous laboratory procedures outlined in the
proposal are not based on solid scientific data. This is basically

ATTACHMENT C

�2.
t

a "fishing expedition" among cohorts of twins, in which the focus
will be on clinical, laboratory, and behavioral parameters of
disease, or of disease indicators. The General Medical Assessment,
as outlined in this protocol, represents a cosmic approach to
clinical assessment, which may also be said for the extensive
battery of laboratory tests proposed. Instead of a proposal
consisting of a series of well-defined questions for which research
studies are to be done, the veterans will be subjected to all
manner of tests, clinical and other, on basically flimsy scientific
evidence, to see what emerges. Even the more specialized tests
have insufficient justification and weak scientific rationale.
The only independent variable in this proposed study is service in
Vietnam. A reasonable hypothesis might be generated that links
Vietnam service to psychiatric sequelae, however, other studies
directed to this goal are already being undertaken.
Because the "n" (sample size) is small the study has only a low
statistical power to detect modestly increased risks for medical or
psychiatric illnesses. The small "n" may also invalidate the
meaning of a negative result. While it may b« true, as the
investigators argue, that the "n" is large enough to detect
subclinical differences in continuous variables such as laboratory
values, such differences would have no clinical significance and
are of insufficient importance to argue for implementing such a
massive study. What are the implications of finding small
deviations from normality in the co-twin pairs?
Two problems with the data analysis presentation deserve some
comment. First, information on data analysis is scattered
throughout the proposal. Although each of these subsections is
clearly presented, the relationships between the various types of
analyses is not fully discussed. The second problem is relevant to
the issue of multiple comparisons and spurious effects. This would
be less of a problem if the data anaylses were divided into
confirmatory and exploratory analyses. The confirmatory analyses
should test a prior hypotheses which are explicitly specified by
the investigators. These hypotheses could be based on either past
empirical findings or theoretical developments. Since this group
of tests will be less than the number pf tests discussed in the
proposal, it would be reasonable to apply a higher alpha level to
them than to the exploratory analyses.
The medical illnesses of Vietnam servicemen, were for the
self-limiting and will likely have long ago disappeared.
acute and/or chronic exposure to drugs or chemicals might
some abnormal test results initially, 14 or 20 years have
elapsed since active Vietnam service and any -relationship
and effect will be compromised.

most part
Although
yield
now
of cause

�3.

A basic problem is that health differences between twins may be
unrelated to Vietnam service, and may have developed in the 14 to
20 years post-Vietnam.
Since it will not be possible to obtain accurate data on which
servicemen were exposed to Age'nt Orange this study has essentially
no relevance to the problem of Agent Orange effects on health.
Thus, the hypothesis that the numerous psychological and
biochemical tests are for purposes of evaluation of Agent Orange
effects are invalid because, 1) of uncertainty of Agent Orange
exposure, 2) the long period of time that has elapsed after a
possible exposure to this herbicide and 3) the small number (65) of
twins to be studied, who might have been exposed to Agent Orange.
A basic concern is possible sample bias. The twins to be studied
appear to be coming from only 4 or 5 states, however, this is a
problem that is disregarded by the investigators. The individuals
picked at random, who are invited to participate in the study
cannot be assumed to be neutral with regard to the outcome of this
study. Some may be recipients of medical care for service
connected or service aggravated disabilities or may be receiving
pensions. As a consequence there may be a problem in gaining full
and objective cooperation from those veterans who fear that they
may be jeopardizing their future or present VA claims. Some
subjects may be selected out because of illness or their job
commitment, and are unable to travel to St. Louis. Others, because
of an affluent life-style or professional commitments may not wish
to volunteer for the extensive studies and trip to St. Louis. This
may then result in the study assembling a group of volunteers who
are unrepresentative of the population of Vietnam veterans.
Another general problem of concern to the reviewers was the
feasibility of assuring quality of medical, psychological and
laboratory examinations via competitively bid contracts. What
input will the investigators have on the letting of the contract
and sub- contracts, and how will they monitor the competence of
these contractors.

SPECIFIC CRI'TICIMS OF EXAMINATION ELEMENTS
-- Mental Health Examinations:

.

T

^

Psychiatric assessment is to be made using the Diagnostic Interview
Schedule (DIS), medical records, and interview with spouse or
equivalent.
The preferred diagnostic instrument is to be the DIS III. This may
strike the psychiatric community as an odd choice. The major value
of the DIS, to date, is as an epidemiological- survey instrument

�4.

that can be administered by non-clinicians; however,in the
contemplated study expert clinicians could more appropriately
be used. The potential contribution of this instrument for
clarifying PTSD is not self-evident. Tt is ironic that the
protocol involves transporting 1,200 person to St. Louis, but
ignores the opportunity for expert clinical examination in favor of
a survey instrument.' ^ ,.
•v

A more serious and certainly more pragmatic concern is that at the
time this protocol was prepared the DIS III had not yet become
available for inclusion in this study.
The Psychological assessment is to use a wide array of
psychological instruments: 1) four self report measures of
psychological distress, 2) three measures of cognitive deficit, 3)
one measure of psychological constriction, 4) three coping
measures, 5) two measures of cognitive measures, 6) life events,
and 7) a measure yet to be developed (Current Behavioral Indices).
In general, the theoretical and conceptual specification of the
diagnostic outcomes of primary interest is adequate; however, there
are several points of concern. First, regarding diagnostic outcome
of primary interest, there is no DIS algorithm for the schizotypal
borderline or narcissistic personality disorders which current
research suggests overlaps with PTSD. Secondly, the specification
of four distinct groups of veterans is not well conceputalized,
either theoretically or operationally.
The delineation of construct areas is a useful procedure, however,
the proposed scales to measure the construct area do not always
represent the best possible measures, i.e., CPT to assess
psychological constriction, or the resurrection of the out-moded
California F scale as an index of cognition.
A more detailed operational definition of hypotheses is necessary.
What is it about war stress that contributes differentially to
PTSD, primary diagnostic outcomes and psychosocial measures? What
independent validations are being employed to cross-check preservice risk factor variables? There is a need to interview
significant others and obtain documentation "for the occurrence of a
self-reported risk factor.
^
Of great concern is the need to establish the feasibility of
subjecting individuals to the onerous chore of completing the timeconsuming battery of tests. Could there be a serious sample
biasing effect toward compliance and perhaps "health" for those
subjects who fully cooperate in this heavy assessment program?
What will be the rate of subject attrition? Consider the likelihood of a movie-version PTSD patient holding still for these
evaluations.

�5.

i
Overall, the measures will generate a plethora of data which
ultimately may have to be factored into empirically derived rather
than rationally predetermined dimensions suggested. The limits of
the study, include 'such factors as: 1) inability to match within
twin pairs for post military experience, 2) possible relevant
aspects of military service, e.g., duration of service, rank, time
of service, branch, etc,,.and 3) the limits of the cross-sectional
design involving measurement of "effects" taken 15-20 years after
the putatively critical service experiences. It is difficult to be
reassured by the argument that a "longitudinal" view will be
constructed.
Medical and Laboratory Examinations.
It is proposed to perform a multitude of liver function tests.
This combination of tests, if abnormal, may indicate that the
subject has hepatic dysfunction, however, it will not define the
type liver disease. The primary usefulness of assays of gammaglutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) as a diagnostic test is limited to
confirmation of elevated alkaline phosphatase of bony origin, since
GGT is not found in bone and should be low in isolated disease of
the bone. * finding of elevated GGT has limited usefulness,
because the enzyme is ubiquitous and elevation of GGT in no way
specifies hepatic disease. Of concern in this study is the fact
that this is an inducible enzyme. Numerous enzyme-inducing drugs,
most notably alcohol, elevate the serum level of the enzyme in the
absence of other evidence of hepatic disorder. In reading their
protocol it would appear that the Pi's will depend solely on the
subject's concepts of his drinking habits. On the other hand if
all of the other liver associated tests are within normal limits,
an elevated GGT may be an indication of recent and/or continous
alcohol intake.
In summary, results will be obtained from the performance of a
battery of liver associated tests. The interpretation of these
results will be difficult unless those with abnormalities undergo
liver biopsy to determine the morphologic changes associated with
liver diseases. It will be difficult to interpret whether
Agent Orange is responsible for any of the biochemical changes that
may be found.
*
f
•
The section on porphyria is weak. The authors have failed to
delineate the modern day concepts of hepatic porphyrias.. The
latent and manifest forms of acute intermittent porphyria and
porphyria cutanea tarda (PCT) differ in the excretion of
porphobilinogen, delta-aminolevulinic acid, uroporphyrin and
coproporphyrin. They do not specify which of these intermediates
of heme synthesis they will measure. Most cases of PCT are
sporadic, although there is a inherited enzymatic defect (deficient

�• *•.
6.

activity of uroporphyrinogen decarboxylase) that predisposes to
development of PCTt
The "andrology" stu'dies, as proposed, have little intellectual
basis, with the literature briefly summarized instead of critically
reviewed. The studies of spontaneous abortion are seriously undersold in their complexity.' The cytogenetic testing for sister
chromatid exchanges and chromosomal aberrations has several
specific flaws, but the allusion that somatic cell chromosome
alterations may reflect alterations in haploid cells which, in
turn, bear on sterility, fetal wastage, teratogenesis, etc., is
especially troublesome in its conceptualization, even more so than
in its implementation. The mechanism of communication of
cytogenetic test results is left, pretty much as it was at the Love
Canel, unexplained. The semen analysis is unfortunately open to
serious question for several reasons. It is stated that only a
single semen sample will be collected. This is inadequate because
of the variability in ejaculate volume, sperm numbers and sperm
motility in human semen samples. A minimum of two and optimally
three semen samples collected at 1-2 month intervals should be
obtained. The qualitative assessment of sperjii motility is
inaccurate and unacceptable. A quantitative estimate of sperm
motility is essential. There is a question about the wisdom of
freezing semen for assessment of sperm numbers and morphology since
there is no description of the method of freezing semen and no
assurance that it will be done properly.
Recent large, independent investigations of Australian Vietnam
veterans (NEJM 308:719, 1983) and American Vietnam veterans (JAMA
252:903, 1984) concluded that there was no evidence that service in
Vietnam was related to the risk of fathering a child with a birth
defect, and thus there is little reason for further evaluation of
this topic with such a small number of subjects.
A wide range of immunological assays, particularly of T cell
function are proposed, again with little evidence of a rationale
for the studies. No review of Agent Orange effects on this immvane
system is provided, in humans or in experimental systems, and there
is no specific reason to believe that being In Vietnam per se
alters immune function. Tmmunotoxicology is a developing science,,
and is not yet applicable for definitive studies of humans exposed
to toxins. What are normative values in the population? What
would small alterations of suppressor T cells mean for these
subjects?
In summary, it is felt that the many specific laboratory tests
proposed would be of little value. More troublesome is the weak or
absent rationale for including many of the laboratory procedures.

�7.
•,

BUDGET

Since the prospects, of generating objective, scientifically sound
data from this project are slim, the total costs of approximately
10 million dollars is highly cost ineffective. The request for 100
percent support for so many principal investigators is surprising.
The budget justification indicates that the staff members are to
work on other projects and conduct clinical duties in addition to
work on this proposal.
INVESTIGATORS

The reviewers expressed considerable concern about the competence
of most of the investigators, who have never before directed a
project of this magnitude. The physician PI, Dr. Eisen has no
significant research experience and no scientific publication for
the past 8 years, except for a case report in 1982. He has one
active VA supported research project through HSR&amp;D, but has
demonstrated no expertise in any of the areas of this proposal.
Dr. Levitt, Ph.D., psychologist has no publication as a primary
author and no research support. Dr. True, Ph.D., anthrophology and
MPH in epidemiology has no publications in reiereed journals and no
research support. Dr. Goldberg, Ph.D. in epidemiology has 12
refereed publications in health service research and is senior
author of five of these. He lists no research funding.
Susan Fisher has a BS in Nursing and an MS in Biostatistics. She
is the primary or coauthor of eight publications in the field of
nursing. Dr. Henderson, Ph.D. in biostatistics is Associate
Professor, Department of Pharmacology, Loyola University and Chief,
Hines VA Cooperative Prograrm, Hines, Illinois. Re has an
impressive list of publications, mostly in field of Clinical Trials
and is considered to be a global authority in this area.
RECOMMENDATIONS

Disapproval of Twin Protocol 12, CSP 1256 (by a vote of 13 to 1).
Protocol II should continue to develop the registry of Vietnam,
twins and increase the scope of the mortality and morbidity
questionnaire for all of the approximately 10,000 male twin pairs
born between 1939-1953 with military service'from 1965-1975. If
necessary additional funds should be provided to expand the
questionnaire and/or sample size in order to provide an improved
data base for a possible future implementation of a clinical study
on a subset of twins. The questionnaire for the morbidity study
might be expanded to include selected behavioral questions, family
and social history and other confounding variables such as drug and
alcohol abuse.

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°1812

AllthOT

Eisner, Seth

Corporate Author
RBDOrt/APtldB Tltte Typescript: Report of Contact - contacted by Larry
Hobson, February 27, 1984

Journal/Book Title
Year
Month/Day
Color
Number of forages
DBSCrlptOn NOtOS

Alvin L Youn

9filed tnis item under "Vietnam Veterans
Twin Study." Discusses Hobson's Option and Decision
Paper regarding continuation of the study.

Wednesday, July 11, 2001

Page 1813 of 1870

��REPORT OF CONTACT
Contacted by: Larry Hobson
Date of Contact: February 27, 1984
Hobson has been asked to prepare an Option and Decision
Paper for review by the CMD. He was calling to read his current
draft to me for my comments. The various options that Hobson will
present are:
1. Discontinue the VETS, including withdrawing from Twinfind
Pro - money will be saved
Con - the VA will be subject to adverse criticism
2. Direct that a non-VA contractor perform the entire study
Pro - claims of possible VA bias in the data collection and
analysis will be eliminated
Con - bias does not appear to be a major issue (note the
Ranch Hand study's relative freedom from the bias
criticism), the cost of the project under contract
will markedly increase, there will be a demoralizing
effect on the project's principal investigators, and
the VA will appear to lack confidence in the quality
of its own research
3. Continue the NAS Twinfind and questionnaire survey but abandon
the St. Louis intensive health assessment portion
Pro - money will be saved and the twin register concept and
its future scientific value will be retained
Con - the NAS questionnaire is so limited in scope that its
value to the VA will be m i n i m a l , and the VA will be
subject to the criticism of refusing to support
quality research because of what might be revealed
4. Support only the NAS Twinfind but expand the detail in the
mailed questionnaire, perhaps including a telephone survey
Pro - the cost of the project will be reduced and the
expanded questionnaire will increase the usefulness of
the data
Con - the data will be of questionable reliability, its
usefulness will be quite limited, and the cost savings
will be reduced because of the increased cost of the
expanded questionnaire survey
5. Retain the VETS in its c u r r e n t f o r m a t , w i t h or w i t h o u t
modification. The following are possible modifications:
a. P e r f o r m the psychological assessment under contract
Pro - the c r i t i c i s m of b i a s in the d a t a c o l l e c t i o n w i l l be
reduced

�Con - the cost will be increased
b. E l i m i n a t e some of the proposed e x p e n s i v e m e d i c a l tests but
r e t a i n the p e r f o r m a n c e of the psychological assessment by the VA
Pro - the cost of the project will be reduced
Con - t h e V A m a y s t i l l b e c r i t i c i z e d f o r
p e r f o r m i n g an incomplete research p r o j e c t

purposely

c. C o n t i n u e the present VETS plan in an u n m o d i f i e d form
Pro - an excellent s t u d y , a p p r o v e d by the CSP, will thereby
result and be subject to the least c r i t i c i s m from the
s c i e n t i f i c c o m m u n i t y and the general public
Con - the s t u d y w i l l be s u b j e c t to the c r i t i c i s m of b i a s and
high cost
Hobson said that his own position is option 5b. He will r e c o m m e n d
e l i m i n a t i n g tests such as the e n d o c r i n e and i m m u n o l o g i c studies,
and t h e c y t o g e n e t i c a n a l y s e s . H e p e r s o n a l l y i s i n f a v o r o f
r e t a i n i n g the sleep study. I m e n t i o n e d to him that this would
r e d u c e t h e o v e r a l l cost o f t h e p r o j e c t b y o n l y s e v e r a l h u n d r e d
thousand dollars. He agreed and pointed out that he purposely
p r o j e c t e d n o cost s a v i n g f i g u r e s i n t h e O p t i o n a n d D e c i s i o n
Paper. He hoped that a n t a g o n i s t s w i t h i n the VA w i l l be s a t i s f i e d
w i t h a n a p p a r e n t cost r e d u c t i o n v i c t o r y w h i l e t h e s t u d y w i l l
a c t u a l l y r e m a i n essentially intact. He agreed that he had little
idea of how well this strategy might work. "I d o n ' t know the best
way to play this," he said. Hobson said there is supposed to be a
m e e t i n g with Custis later this week to discuss the VETS.
SOME PERSONAL

COMMENTS

In response to one of my questions, Hobson noted that Greene
i s t h e m a i n a n t a g o n i s t t o t h e VETS. " G r e e n e h a s b e e n t a l k i n g
quite loudly." Hobson noted, however, that Boren had not yet
taken any public stand. Greene is a r g u i n g that the study does not
have s u f f i c i e n t statistical power. H o w e v e r , our sample size
a n a l y s i s ( w h i c h no one has c r i t i c i z e d ) d e m o n s t r a t e s that this is
not v a l i d . Greene is also a r g u i n g that the t w i n concept is not
appropriate to the questions being addressed. But our review
groups, who include some of the most p r e s t i g i o u s m e m b e r s of the
s c i e n t i f i c c o m m u n i t y , do not agree.
It seems to me that Greene's o b j e c t i o n s may be based, in
p a r t , on a " h i d d e n a g e n d a " . Hobson noted t h a t in a r e c e n t
m e e t i n g , G r e e n e b e c a m e v e r y angry a n d a c c u s e d t h e A g e n t O r a n g e
P r o j e c t s O f f i c e (AOPO) of not i n f o r m i n g him about every aspect of
the progress of the p r o j e c t . Perhaps this r e p r e s e n t s one aspect
of t h e t r u e p r o b l e m . T h a t i s , G r e e n e f e e l s t h a t t h e AOPO i s
e x e r c i s i n g t o o m u c h p o w e r i n G r e e n e ' s d o m a i n . P e r h a p s t h e real
conflict is a "turf battle".

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&lt;p&gt;For more about this collection, &lt;a href="/exhibits/speccoll/exhibits/show/alvin-l--young-collection-on-a"&gt;view the Agent Orange Exhibit.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</text>
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01735

Author

Keller, Carl A.

Corporate Author
RODOrt/ArtlOlO TitlO Typescript: Review of Vietnam Veterans Mortality
Study, September 14,1987

Journal/Book Title
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Doscripton Notes

Monday, June 11, 2001

Page 1786 of 1793

�REVIEW OF VIETNAM VETERANS MORTALITY

STUDY

A study of proportionate mortality among U.S. Army and Marine veterans
who served between July 4, 1965 and March 1, 1973 and died before
March 1, 1982 was reported by the Veterans Administration. The study
included 19708 Army and 4527 Marine veterans who had served in Vietnam
and 22904 Army and 3781 Marine veterans who had not served in Southeast
Asia during tis period. The study included a random sample of about
one-third of the potentially elligible veterans who had died during this
period. The selection of study subjects and recovery of information on
them appears to have been unbiased and appropriate.
The major findings from this study included a statistically significant
excess of accidental and drug related deaths and paucity of suicides
among Army veterans who had served in Vietnam compared to those who
had not served in Southeast Asia. In addition, there was a statistically
significant excess of lung cancer and non-Hodgkins lymphoma among Marine
veterans who had served in Vietnam compared to those who had not.
Several other findings were not mentioned in either the conclusions
nor in the narrative, but are evident in the tables. These include a
statisically significant decrease in mortality due to genitourinary
diseases and cancer of the extra-cranial nervous system among Army
Vietnam veterans. In addition, there appears to have been a signifcant
decrease in cancer deaths among enlisted Army veterans with only one
tour of duty in Vietnam, and among similar Marine veterans before 1975.
There was also a significant increase in accidental poisonings among
enlisted Marine Vietnam veterans dying before 1975.
The authors computed Standardized Proportionate Mortality Ratios (SPMR)
and tested with the Chi-Square statistic (not presented in the tables).
According to the reference used to justify this procedure (ref # 13),
Professor Monson suggests using the Poisson approximation of the
variance of the expected deaths, i.e., that the expected number of
deaths approximates the variance. If this procedure is applied to the
information which can be deduced from the observed number of deaths
and the SPMR as given in the tables, several additional SPMRs appear to
be statistically significant. These include an excess of all cancer
deaths among Marine veterans who served in Vietnam, particularly single
tour enlisted Marines after 1975. Other possibly significant findings
would include a decrease in deaths due to infectious diseases and
diseases of the blood, an increase in deaths due to musculoskeletal
and connective tissue diseases, and a decrease in deaths from thyroid
cancer and non-Hodgkins lymphoma among Army Vietnam veterans.
While there is no way to determine which statistical procedures are
"correct", these results indicate that more significant findings are
available in these data than have been dicussed in the manuscript.
While this does not make it any easier to interpret the results, it
does serve to point out the selective nature of the findings which
have been emphasized in the manuscript. In particular, the inclusion
of one-seventh of the abstract and considerable dicussion in the
narrative to Agent Orange is misleading. Other possible explanations
for the findings should receive relatively more emphasis.

Carl A. Keller, Ph.D.
Epidemiologist, NIEHS

�</text>
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&lt;p&gt;For more about this collection, &lt;a href="/exhibits/speccoll/exhibits/show/alvin-l--young-collection-on-a"&gt;view the Agent Orange Exhibit.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</text>
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01734

Author

Houk, Vernon N.

Corporate Author
RepOrt/ArtiClB TltlO Memorandum: Review of VA Mortality Study, from
Vernon N. Houk to Ronald W. Hart, September 11, 1987

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Desorlpton Notes

Monday, June 11, 2001

Page 1785 of 1793

�DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH &amp; HUMAN SERVICES

Public Health Service
Centers for Disease Control

Memorandum
Date
From

.September 11, 1987
Director
Center for Environmental Health and Injury Control
Review of VA Mortality Study

Subject
To

Ronald W. Hart, Ph.D.
Director
National Center for Toxicological Research
i
The Veterans Administration (VA) has conducted a proportionate mortality
study (PMR) of 24,235 deaths among U.S. Army and U.S. Marine male
veterans who served in Vietnam and 26,685 deaths among male veterans of
the same two services who did not serve anywhere in Southeast Asia. All
deaths were identified from the VA BIRLS file and occurred between
July 4, 1965, and March 1, 1982. These deceased veterans had to have
served in the military sometime between July 4, 1965, and March 1, 1973.
Career and non-career, officers, and enlisted men, as well as reservists,
were included. In-service deaths occurring before 1974 and men dying
from war-related injuries were excluded. In service deaths after 1973
were included.
Within the group of Vietnam veterans, the fraction of all deaths
attributable to a particular cause was computed and compared to the
corresponding proportion for non-Vietnam veterans. The comparison was
done using the proportionate mortality ratio (PMR) technique in which age
at death, race, and branch of service were taken into account. There was
no adjustment for calendar year of death or rank. Altogether, PMRs were
computed for 18 major cause of death groupings and for 23 specific cancer
sites.
We will address our concerns in data collection, data analysis, and
interpretation.
Data Collection. Are the BIRLS tapes truly at least 94 percent
complete? From the CDC Mortality Study which used multiple sources of
mortality we found that BIRLS was less complete.
Data Analysis. Why do the authors emphasize only the statistically
significant positive findings? Why were not the significant decreases in
deaths from genitourinary diseases (Table 3) and the decrease in deaths
*. from all cancers for one-tour of duty veterans (Table 5) not discussed?
The lack of association between service in
be reevaluated in light of the CDC finding
in the first 5 years after discharge. CDC
discharge rather than year of death. This

Vietnam and suicide needs to
that they were increased only
used the time period since
subject was repeatedly brought

�Page 2 - Ronald W. Hart, Ph.D.
up with the VA prior to completion of their analysis. The CDC study
would indicate that grouping by 10 year periods would minimize the
effect.
The findings for lung cancer and NHL in Marine Vietnam veterans are
provocative, although similar observations were not made in other studies
of Vietnam veterans. The absence of unusual mortality from soft-tissue
cancers is consistent with some previous studies but at variance with
others. Because so many statistical tests were done on the data set,
these ^apparent findings could be due to chance. It would be helpful to
see a more detailed analysis in which mortality from these cancer sites
is examined by calendar year in Vietnam, rank, MOS, and principal duty.
These additional analyses would help in deciding whether some factor
related to the Vietnam experience is responsible for the apparent
association.
Interpretation. The authors suggest that these were major differences in
the findings of previous studies cited, but there are in fact few major
differences in the findings.
Referenced studies were not critically discussed. There has never been,
for example, an association demonstrated between lung cancer and phenoxy
herbicides except in the Zack Study (Ref. 29) where 3.6 cases were
expected and 6 were found in those exposed to 2,4,5-T. Those authors
state that they cannot evaluate trends in lung cancer deaths as they
relate to occupation because of "limitation in the data."
As noted above, it is not surprising to encounter the small number of
statistical departures from expected mortality seen in this study. These
could easily have arisen by chance alone. This study, as originally
designed, cannot conclusively clarify mortality risks for Vietnam
veterans, let alone elucidate possible causative factors within, or
outside of, the Vietnam experience. Reasons include lack of a defined
population-at-risk, incomplete ascertainment of deaths, and absence of
"exposure" data on individual veterans.
This PMR study appears to be well executed in mechanics. However, the
presentation and discussion of the results do not provide the necessary
caution in interpretation and allow the uninitiated to make causal
inferences where they do not exist.

Vernon N. Houk, M.D.
Assistant Surgeon General

�</text>
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&lt;p&gt;For more about this collection, &lt;a href="/exhibits/speccoll/exhibits/show/alvin-l--young-collection-on-a"&gt;view the Agent Orange Exhibit.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</text>
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                <text>Houk, Vernon N.</text>
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                <text>Memorandum: Review of VA Mortality Study, from Vernon N. Houk to Ronald W. Hart, September 11, 1987</text>
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  <item itemId="3092" public="1" featured="0">
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                    <text>Item ID Number

01733

Author

Barnes, Donald G.

Corporate Author
Roport/Artido TitlO Typescript: Comments on "Proportionate Mortally Study
of Army and Marine Corps Veterans of the Vietnam
War," Septembers, 1987

Journal/Book Titlo
Year

oooo

Month/Day
Color

n

Number of Images

1

Doscrlpton Notes

Monday, June 11, 2001

Page 1784 of 1793

�9/8/87
COMMENTS ON
"PROPORTIONATE MORTALITY STUDY OF
ARMY AND MARINE CORPS VETERANS OF THE VIETNAM WAR"
Donald G. Barnes
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
1. Proportionate mortality studies have inherent limitations
which restrict their interpretation and conclusions; e.g.,
reduced PMR in one area necessitates increased PMR in
another area. This particular study is a generally welldesigned example of this type of investigation. The report
clearly discusses the procedures, methods of analysis, and
the conclusions, including caveats. The results should not
be cited without an thorough appreciation of these caveats.
2. The study is a descriptive study which essentially suggests
hypotheses for further investigation. As such, the study
does not test any particular association, let alone prove
any cause-effect relationship.
3. It should be noted that of all the PMRs the two identified as
being of concern, while statistically significant, are
modest (roughly 2) — a tribute to the scale of the study.
4. Among the areas of concern is the question of whether there is
an inherent difference between Marines in Vietnam, compared
to non-Vietnam Marines and all Army troops. It has been
suggested that the Marines in Vietnam had attitudes and
behaviors (e.g., risk takers) which were distinguishable
from other troops.
5. The diagnosis of Non-Hogkins lymphoma is not easy. There
might be a bias in the recording of this diagnosis in cases
in which it was known that the patient had served in
Vietnam.
6. If one is concerned about the etiology of cancer vis a vis
Vietnam, it would be preferable to exclude any cancers that'
appear prior to some minimal latency period; e.g., 10 years.
7. It would be enlightening to look at the proportionate cancer
mortality ratios (PMCRs), which would examine the relative
cancer experience in greater detail.
8. Possible followups include:
a. An I Corps study of the Army veterans — planned
b. A periodic updating of the current study to take into
account latency, etc. — planned?
c. A cohort study of the Marines
d. A case-control study of the NHL and lung cancers in the
Marines.
The question of exposure still remains. Given the recent
results of the CDC exposure validation study, it is not
clear that options c and d are tenable.

�</text>
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                  <text>&lt;p style="margin-top: -1em; line-height: 1.2em;"&gt;The Alvin L. Young Collection on Agent Orange comprises 120 linear feet and spans the late 1800s to 2005; however, the bulk of the coverage is from the 1960s to the 1980s and there are many undated items. The collection was donated to Special Collections of the National Agricultural Library in 1985 by Dr. Alvin L. Young (1942- ). Dr. Young developed the collection as he conducted extensive research on the military defoliant Agent Orange. The collection is in good condition and includes letters, memoranda, books, reports, press releases, journal and newspaper clippings, field logs and notebooks, newsletters, maps, booklets and pamphlets, photographs, memorabilia, and audiotapes of an interview with Dr. Young.&lt;/p&gt;&#13;
&lt;p&gt;For more about this collection, &lt;a href="/exhibits/speccoll/exhibits/show/alvin-l--young-collection-on-a"&gt;view the Agent Orange Exhibit.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</text>
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                <text>Barnes, Donald G.</text>
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                <text>Typescript: Comments on "Proportionate Mortality Study of Army and Marine Corps Veterans of the Vietnam War," September 8, 1987</text>
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                <text>lymphomas</text>
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                <text>study criticism</text>
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  <item itemId="3091" public="1" featured="0">
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        <authentication>c48fbd9edfd45b05704367bfe00b1744</authentication>
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                    <text>Item ID Number
Author

01732
Youn

9-J F

Corporate Author
Report/Article TltlB Typescript: Summary of Review of VA Submission to
JAMA, "Proportional Mortality Study of Army and Marine
Corps Veterans of the Vietnam War" by P. Breslin, et
al., September 8, 1987

Journal/Book Title
Year

000

°

Month/Day
Color
Number of Images

L

1

Descrlpton Notes

Monday, June 11, 2001

Page 1783 of 1793

�Summary of Review of VA submission to JAMA
"Proportional Mortality Study of Army and Marine Corps Veterans
of the Vietnam War"
by P. Breslin, H.K. Kang, Y. Lee, V. Burt, and B.M. Shepard
Summary prepared by
J.F. Youngj D.W. Gaylor, R.L. Kodell, and J. Chen
National Center for Toxicological Research
Jefferson, Arkansas 7E079
September 8? 1987
Regardless of any possible methodological flaws, this study can
not be used to infer anything about Agent Orange or any other
specific cause of effect other than being a Vietnam veteran.
From the write up, one can not check the statistical procedures
and therefore must assume that it was done correctly using
acceptable methods; however, a more detailed description of
the methods with references would be helpful.
From this study
Non-Hodgkins
expected but
risk is less

the Marines have an increased risk due to
Lymphomas? however, the Army risk is lower than
not significantly. When combined, the overall
than expected with a PMR *" 0.95.

The manuscript is for the most part written clearly; however,
there are still obvious errors and statements made that are
not well documented. Positive findings are pointed out but
corresponding negative findings are not discussed.
Statements are made on page I ft that PMR values may be inflated
or deflated. Life-table analyses could be conducted to
overcome these limitations.
It is not clear how age and race adjustments were made in the
analyses. Were the average age of the Vietnam and
non-Vietnam groups the same?

�</text>
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            <element elementId="50">
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              <elementTextContainer>
                <elementText elementTextId="4687">
                  <text>Alvin L. Young Collection on Agent Orange</text>
                </elementText>
              </elementTextContainer>
            </element>
            <element elementId="41">
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              <description>An account of the resource</description>
              <elementTextContainer>
                <elementText elementTextId="49809">
                  <text>&lt;p style="margin-top: -1em; line-height: 1.2em;"&gt;The Alvin L. Young Collection on Agent Orange comprises 120 linear feet and spans the late 1800s to 2005; however, the bulk of the coverage is from the 1960s to the 1980s and there are many undated items. The collection was donated to Special Collections of the National Agricultural Library in 1985 by Dr. Alvin L. Young (1942- ). Dr. Young developed the collection as he conducted extensive research on the military defoliant Agent Orange. The collection is in good condition and includes letters, memoranda, books, reports, press releases, journal and newspaper clippings, field logs and notebooks, newsletters, maps, booklets and pamphlets, photographs, memorabilia, and audiotapes of an interview with Dr. Young.&lt;/p&gt;&#13;
&lt;p&gt;For more about this collection, &lt;a href="/exhibits/speccoll/exhibits/show/alvin-l--young-collection-on-a"&gt;view the Agent Orange Exhibit.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</text>
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              <elementText elementTextId="22571">
                <text>Young, J.F.</text>
              </elementText>
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                <text>Typescript: Summary of Review of VA Submission to JAMA, "Proportional Mortality Study of Army and Marine Corps Veterans of the Vietnam War" by P. Breslin, et al., September 8, 1987</text>
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                <text>study criticism</text>
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  <item itemId="3090" public="1" featured="0">
    <fileContainer>
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                    <text>Item ID Number

01731

Author

Fingerhut, Marilyn

Corporate Author
RdpOrt/ArtiClO TltlB Typescript: Comments on "Proportionate Mortality
Study of Army and Marine Corp Veterans of the
Vietnam War" by P. Breslin et al., Septembers, 1987

Journal/Book Title
Year

000

°

Month/Day
Color
Number of Images

D

1

Descrlpton Notes

Monday, June 11, 2001

Page 1782 of 1793

�Comments on "Proportionate Mortality Study of Army and
Marine Corp Veterans of the Vietnam War" by P. Breslin et_ al.
Marilyn Fingerhut
September 6, 1987
Use of BIRLS for a PMR study is reasonable.
Structure of PMR study is reasonable: Random sample of complete file of
BIRLS, with Vietnam exposure confirmed; death certificates obtained (96.9%
followup), adequate size (at least for Army).
PMR studies are usually used to generate, not test hypotheses. The
article appropriately recommends further work to evaluate etiological
factors. The media reports have not conveyed this information.
The problem at hand results from the timing of the release of the article,
and the inclusion of a sentence in the Abstract (inappropriately)
referring to Agent Orange exposure.
The structure of the study is appropriate; the scientific weakness of the
article lies in the analysis and interpretation of the results. The
authors can revise the article for submission to a journal.
The weakness of the article results from 1) the absence of data evaluating
elevations in other smoking related diseases in the Marines, 2) absence of
latency evaluations for the malignancy outcomes, 3) lack of data
evaluating the adequacy of the marine comparison group, and 4) inadequate
evaluation of the limitations of the PMR study design.
No evaluation of latency is presented for lymphoma or lung outcomes.
Service was '64-'73, deaths were '65-'82. The article does not evaluate
the relationship of time of exposure to time of death.
No data are provided to show whether other circulatory or respiratory
deaths were elevated in army and marines for conditions associated with
smoking.
It is unclear whether the cancer outcomes were obtained in the overall
PMR, or in a separate Proportionate Cancer Mortality Ratio (PCMR).
The results for deaths from external causes and accidental poisonings are
consistent with other studies of veterans and point out problems for
veterans following this war.
The nonVietnam comparison group for the Army is large, so the numbers can
be expected to be stable; the same may not be true for the marines. It
would have been helpful if, 1) the authors had carefully presented data to
show that the marine Vietnam vs. nonVietnam populations were truly
comparable, and 2) the authors had provided a table showing the expected
numbers for each cause of death if the national population had been used
as the comparison.

�</text>
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&lt;p&gt;For more about this collection, &lt;a href="/exhibits/speccoll/exhibits/show/alvin-l--young-collection-on-a"&gt;view the Agent Orange Exhibit.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</text>
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                <text>Fingerhut, Marilyn</text>
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            <name>Title</name>
            <description>A name given to the resource</description>
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                <text>Typescript: Comments on "Proportionate Mortality Study of Army and Marine Corp Veterans of the Vietnam War" by P. Breslin et al., September 6, 1987</text>
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                <text>VA Mortality Study</text>
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                <text>BIRLS</text>
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                <text>study criticism</text>
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                <text>cancer risk assessment</text>
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            <element elementId="50">
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                  <text>Alvin L. Young Collection on Agent Orange</text>
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                  <text>&lt;p style="margin-top: -1em; line-height: 1.2em;"&gt;The Alvin L. Young Collection on Agent Orange comprises 120 linear feet and spans the late 1800s to 2005; however, the bulk of the coverage is from the 1960s to the 1980s and there are many undated items. The collection was donated to Special Collections of the National Agricultural Library in 1985 by Dr. Alvin L. Young (1942- ). Dr. Young developed the collection as he conducted extensive research on the military defoliant Agent Orange. The collection is in good condition and includes letters, memoranda, books, reports, press releases, journal and newspaper clippings, field logs and notebooks, newsletters, maps, booklets and pamphlets, photographs, memorabilia, and audiotapes of an interview with Dr. Young.&lt;/p&gt;&#13;
&lt;p&gt;For more about this collection, &lt;a href="/exhibits/speccoll/exhibits/show/alvin-l--young-collection-on-a"&gt;view the Agent Orange Exhibit.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</text>
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              <text>066</text>
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              <text>1780</text>
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              <text>Series III Subseries III</text>
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            <name>Creator</name>
            <description>An entity primarily responsible for making the resource</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="22554">
                <text>Dan, Bruce B.</text>
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            <name>Title</name>
            <description>A name given to the resource</description>
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                <text>Letter: from Bruce B. Dan to Han K. Kang, July 14, 1987</text>
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          <element elementId="49">
            <name>Subject</name>
            <description>The topic of the resource</description>
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                <text>VA Mortality Study</text>
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                <text>study protocol</text>
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                <text>study criticism</text>
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