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Presentation of Probabilistic Dose Estimates - A Pilot Project for the FSA

Greenstreet Berman, Ltd
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In assessing the food chain impact of radioactive discharges, the FSA has previously presented single estimates of potential dose. The Agency is now developing a probabilistic approach to risk assessment whereby a range of possible doses will be provided, taking account of all the uncertainties and variabilities associated with the derivation of the doses.

The intention is to present this information to the public as it provides a better assessment of the range of potential doses. It would be included in the consultation process associated with nuclear site discharge authorisations and in response to public requests for information on the Agency's assessments. This project investigated the ways of presenting this information to a non-technical audience.

More information
The first step involved a review of existing research and guidelines on the presentation of probabilities, variability and uncertainty in risk-related information. This desk research was followed by a pilot trial to provide additional information on specific presentational issues of concern to the Agency. Concepts identified during the review stage were used in the trial to gain additional feedback on the existing approaches, rather than as finished examples of best practice.

Find more about this project and other FSA food safety-related projects at the Food Standards Agency Research webpage.

Funding Source
Food Standards Agency
Project number
Risk Assessment, Management, and Communication