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Simulating the Detection, Spread and Control of Avian Influenza in Live Bird Markets in California

Investigators
Cardona, Carol; Carpenter, Tim
Institutions
University of California - Davis
Start date
2009
End date
2013
Objective
  1. Describe the LBM practices in Northern California.
  2. Compare the results of the LBM analysis in Northern California with those already obtained from an earlier study of LBMs in Southern California.
  3. Based on the 2 LBM surveys, identify possible avenues by which AIV can enter and spread within California LBM systems.
  4. Construct a network model to simulate the detection, spread and control of AIV in LBMs in California.
  5. Evaluate alternative surveillance systems for detecting AI in LBMs in California.
More information
NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY: This project will characterize the Live Bird Markets located in California to gain a better understanding how avian influenza virus, a highly contageious agent for birds and mammals, may spread and propose solutions for disease prevention and control.

APPROACH: All Northern California LBMs and their poultry suppliers have completed a questionnaire regarding the types and number of birds present in the markets, geographic location(s), frequency of live bird deliveries and other biosecurity practices. Network measurements that quantify individuals' importance within the Northern California network as well as collective network measurements of network cohesion will be performed using social network software, UCInet and visualized using NetDraw (Analytic Technologies, Lexington, KY). Data analysis LBM networks will be evaluated based on common live bird suppliers and weighted by the frequency of live bird deliveries. Network measurements that quantify individuals' importance within the Northern California network as well as collective network measurements of network cohesion. A spatial network epidemic simulation model will be written in R programming language, capable of simulating AIV epidemics in California LBMs. The algorithm for implementing areal-level activities will be defined based on the network analysis and will be programmed on a statewide level. 10,000 iterations will be run to evaluate spread and duration of an outbreak. In the simulation model we will evaluate the effects of early detection methods in LBMs as well as several control methods. Outcomes to be compared are infected premises (IPs) and epidemic duration.

Funding Source
Nat'l. Inst. of Food and Agriculture
Project source
View this project
Project number
CALV-AH-222
Accession number
204475
Categories
Predictive Microbiology
Sanitation and Quality Standards
Bacterial Pathogens
Food Defense and Integrity
Commodities
Meat, Poultry, Game