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Spatial-Temporal Study of Patterns, Spread and Clustering of Antigenic Drift and/or Antigenic Shift in Avian Influenza Virus


The objective of this project are to <ol>
<li> identify the location of AI outbreaks in domestic and wild birds/other animals since January 1997,
<li> acquire associated epidemiologic and phenotypic data associated with outbreaks,
<li> acquire existing genomic sequence data on HP and LP strains of AI virus,
<li> perform bioinformatics and comparative genomic analyses of the genomic data to determine which gene(s) may be associated with antigenic shift/drift <li> integrate data into AI spatial-temporal model at AFMIC. </ol>

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NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY: This study is expected to improve early, rapid and autonomous detection of spetific topotypes and strains of AI and improve our understanding of when, where and why new strains can be expected to emerge.

APPROACH: Data will be obtained from the internet and from collaborators at FAO, OIE, Pirbright, Plum Island and Winnepeg. Mapping of isolates will be performed using a commercially available program to enable the visualization of the temporal and spatial pattern including clustering and movement of the AI virus outbreaks. Cluster analysis will be conducted in both time and space. We will use a modified version of a commonly used local-cluster identification package, SatScan. Additional clustering tests will include the Cuzick-Edwards test and Odon's test designed to detect global clusters and movement patterns respectively.

Carpenter, Tim
University of California - Davis
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